my criteria is what 5x5 fantasy numbers I think they can give me in their pre-arbitration/arbitration years(first 6 years), assume they don't get traded.
I'd rank them
Lincecum-will really lack run support, Giants don't have any good hitter under 30 and don't have any close to the majors in the farm
Hughes-will get run support, but will suffer the bad beat of the AL East, ERA over 4 most of those years, wouldn't be surprised if he has an ERA over 4 in all his pre arbitration/arbitration years.
Bailey-I think will have arm problem, but he has great stuff. I have lots of questions about him.
Gallardo-I'd almost rank him over Bailey, I think he's a safe bet to be good but not spectacular. Think what Jason Jennings did last year with a better WHIP and a bit more K. But consistently.
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Lincecum may have incredible K/9, but his BBs would kill him over a MLB season. If/when he straightens that out maybe he'll be equal or above Hughes but for now Hughes is still the king.
"I do not think baseball of today is any better than it was 30 years ago... I still think Radbourne is the greatest of the pitchers." John Sullivan 1914-Old athletes never change.
hot4tx wrote:Lincecum may have incredible K/9, but his BBs would kill him over a MLB season.
I am not sure if I entirely agree with this one. Having seen him pitch, he has great command of his plus plus curve. It's obvious most hitters are still having trouble making contact with it and it is also just as hard for umps to judge them. This is why so many pitchers scrap the curve in favor of a slider in MLB.
I think that as long as Linc keeps up his K rate and H rate, I can live with a higher BB rate for now. If you watch him he is not wild like most people think based on his stats.
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by jake_twothousandfive » Fri Apr 27, 2007 4:55 pm
As of right now I'd rank them:
Hughes
Lincecum
Bailey
Gallardo
Lincecum probably has the highest ceiling, but IMO Hughes is a more sure bet. Either way, I expect all of these guys to be good major league pitchers in a year or two.
"Don't take anything for granted, because tomorrow is not promised to any of us." ---Kirby Puckett