Ted Lilly

[negola_d]

I'm thinking the same exact thing as Rhydderych... What do you guys think his ERA could be for a manager who benched him in bad fly-ball ballparks and at home when the wind was blowing out? (Now obviously this takes away some value, because you are only using him about half the time, but could he put up an ERA under 3.00 in these conditions?)

I wouldnt go that low. I'd expect somewhere around 3.40-3.60.

But you just cant predict everything based on the numbers.
He wont pitch every game in a hitters park so even with the wind blowing out he could give you an excellent start, or with the wind blowing in there are the bloop base hits, seeing eye singles, doubles down the line, or just not having his stuff on a day that looks like a great matchup on paper.

[thomasps3]

Not only does Lilly have a sub 3.00 era in over sixty innings pitched prior to coming over to the NL due to the interleague play, but in 33 innings so far this year, he has really harnessed his past tendency to walk a lot of hitters, walking only 5 batters while racking up a K/9 rate of 9.0. I would stick with him and expect a sub 3.7 era the rest of the way, which will factor to a quite nice 3.4-3.5 total era. Consider me a buyer of Lilly's early season success.

Also, here is a link to my sleeper article on him from before the season started:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2007 ... _lilly.php