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Postby Another Blown Save » Fri Apr 27, 2007 1:07 pm

Sell High.
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Postby negola_d » Fri Apr 27, 2007 1:49 pm

daullaz wrote:Definitely hang on to him. He's not going to put up ace numbers all year, but 180-200 Ks is likely as is an ERA around 4.00.


I agree. The K's will be there and should win at least 15 once that offense really clicks.
But his ERA will be in the low-mid 4's
I watched all of his games so far. He's got good controll and real smart.
But he is a flyball pitcher and when weather warms up those long balls died on the warning track will leave the park.
IF he can avoid the longball he'll be a top 20 pitcher by the end of the year easily.
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Postby Laean » Fri Apr 27, 2007 2:15 pm

negola_d wrote:
daullaz wrote:Definitely hang on to him. He's not going to put up ace numbers all year, but 180-200 Ks is likely as is an ERA around 4.00.


I agree. The K's will be there and should win at least 15 once that offense really clicks.
But his ERA will be in the low-mid 4's
I watched all of his games so far. He's got good controll and real smart.
But he is a flyball pitcher and when weather warms up those long balls died on the warning track will leave the park.
IF he can avoid the longball he'll be a top 20 pitcher by the end of the year easily.


best post in this thread. i agree with everything.

at lowest, his era should be around 3.90. he'll get the Ks and Ws. he's a flyball pitcher in wrigley field. when the winds are blowing out, no way he won't give up a homer or two regularly.
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Postby jake_harv88 » Fri Apr 27, 2007 5:14 pm

Laean wrote:
negola_d wrote:
daullaz wrote:Definitely hang on to him. He's not going to put up ace numbers all year, but 180-200 Ks is likely as is an ERA around 4.00.


I agree. The K's will be there and should win at least 15 once that offense really clicks.
But his ERA will be in the low-mid 4's
I watched all of his games so far. He's got good controll and real smart.
But he is a flyball pitcher and when weather warms up those long balls died on the warning track will leave the park.
IF he can avoid the longball he'll be a top 20 pitcher by the end of the year easily.


best post in this thread. i agree with everything.

at lowest, his era should be around 3.90. he'll get the Ks and Ws. he's a flyball pitcher in wrigley field. when the winds are blowing out, no way he won't give up a homer or two regularly.



Yeah I agree with the posts here. Lilly will be a solid pitcher all year. He'll give you decent Ks and wins while not hurting your ERA and WHIP all that much. However, we all know the best managers dont ride your roster all year. While I dont think lilly will be a bad pitcher at any point this year I think his value will be at the highest within the next couple of weeks. Consider this, his next two starts are at PIT and vs WAS, after these games he should have 7 pretty solid starts under his belt and will be worthy of a pretty solid bat in return. I say ride him for a couple more weeks and then look to move him to a team with a struggling staff ;-D
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Postby Ender » Fri Apr 27, 2007 5:25 pm

If the wind were blowing out the Brewers would have killed him, 5-6 ER easily so I have to agree with an ERA jump. I'd be more worried about him getting hurt than about his production not being good considering where he was drafted in most leagues.
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Postby northjersey78 » Fri Apr 27, 2007 6:39 pm

I got Lilly in the 22nd round (of 23) in 1 league. SCORE!
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Postby luckygehrig » Sat Apr 28, 2007 2:41 am

Thanks for all the posts guys. I got some good info. ;-D
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Postby beezer » Sat Apr 28, 2007 9:33 am

He should continue to do well. I don't think he will be as good as this all year though. He is injury prone also. He has never thrown more than 200 innings. The most he has thrown is 197 in 2004. He is currently on pace to throw 243!!! He will break down at some point. I plan on keeping him for a while. I will probably try to deal him around the all-star break, unless he is still lights out!
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Postby Rhydderch » Sat Apr 28, 2007 1:46 pm

Good thread. I will also make this suggestion that may help some people. Keep a careful eye on weather conditions at Wrigley. This is sorta dependent on being at a computer all day (like my job) but is a good idea if you can.

That way you can enjoy most of his starts, but can hold him back when necessary.
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Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Sun Apr 29, 2007 2:30 am

I'm thinking the same exact thing as Rhydderych... What do you guys think his ERA could be for a manager who benched him in bad fly-ball ballparks and at home when the wind was blowing out? (Now obviously this takes away some value, because you are only using him about half the time, but could he put up an ERA under 3.00 in these conditions?)
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