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Ted Lilly

Postby luckygehrig » Fri Apr 27, 2007 1:30 am

Did a quick search. Saw nothing. Sorry if it's already been discussed. Feel free to berate me.

So far this year his stats have been great. Are we looking at another Arroyo type transformation here after leaving the AL East to pitch in the NL Central? The biggest concern that I have is that his career numbers suggest a pretty big dropoff at some point. He's pitching way beyond what I expected when I drafted him this year. I figured he would be a solid middle to back of the rotation guy, and instead, he's been throwing up some arguably "ace-like" numbers. Anybody think he can keep it up? How long until he falls off? Sell high now?
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Postby High Heater » Fri Apr 27, 2007 3:02 am

i dont think he can keep up his ridiculous BB/K pace of 33/5...

he's having a great season no doubt though. he would be a nice sell high candidate if i had him. he's always had good K numbers.
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Postby RynMan » Fri Apr 27, 2007 6:17 am

I think he can K close to 200 with an ERA of around 3.60-3.80. Context changes make a big difference.
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Postby bceagles04 » Fri Apr 27, 2007 9:36 am

Yeah I picked him in the 16th round of a 12 teamer. I'm pretty happy with him so far! I love the 33/5 K/BB. Fantastic numbers.

I am trying to decide whether I should sell him at what is most likely his peak, or just ride it out hoping for Bronson Part 2.
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Postby Dmville » Fri Apr 27, 2007 9:39 am

So far his command and location have been superb in the games I've seen him pitch. Been able to do basically whatever he wants out there. I'm figuring we'll see a bit of a dropoff as teams see him the second time around, but if he keeps things going the way he has, he'll still have "plus" numbers.
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Postby Rounders » Fri Apr 27, 2007 9:42 am

He's always had pretty good K numbers and decent K/BB, but he could never translate it into a good season. I think he'll be around 180 - 200 Ks if healthy with be under a 4.00 ERA (just an opinion). He may have benefitted the most out of anyone that changed from AL to the NL.
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Postby ScrappyDoo » Fri Apr 27, 2007 9:49 am

I picked him up off waivers when I saw he wasnt drafted. He's been great so far, better than I expected. Id like to see more run support though.

I think he will drop off a little bit, but he does have a good offense and hes got good stuff. I think a 3.5 ERA isnt out of the question but a 3.8 is more likely. He'll K a lot. As a Boston fan Im happy to see him go, he owned us.

I think he'll be better than Arroyo was last year.
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Postby Rounders » Fri Apr 27, 2007 9:58 am

ScrappyDoo wrote:I picked him up off waivers when I saw he wasnt drafted. He's been great so far, better than I expected. Id like to see more run support though.

I think he will drop off a little bit, but he does have a good offense and hes got good stuff. I think a 3.5 ERA isnt out of the question but a 3.8 is more likely. He'll K a lot. As a Boston fan Im happy to see him go, he owned us.

I think he'll be better than Arroyo was last year.


Yeah, run support would be great for all the Cubs pitchers. Their offense definitely has the potential to catch fire. If they do, he could also be in line for more than 15 wins. Zambrano (granted he's a better pitcher - although not so far this year) managed to win 16 last year with a HORRIBLE Cubs offense
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Postby 5 » Fri Apr 27, 2007 12:42 pm

I was made fun of in two leagues for drafting him. He won't keep up this pace but he's better than lots of the "pitchers" other teams are starting.

K pitchers are great to own.
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Postby daullaz » Fri Apr 27, 2007 12:51 pm

Definitely hang on to him. He's not going to put up ace numbers all year, but 180-200 Ks is likely as is an ERA around 4.00.
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