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Carlos Zambrano from here on out: Discuss

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Re: Zambrano

Postby LukeW9027 » Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:09 pm

WTP wrote:You wanna know why Zambrano is struggling so far this year?

His HR/FB is 28.8%. The last three seasons? 10.8%, 12.4%, 8.1%. Nearly three times as many fly balls are leaving the yard for Zambrano this year, and that's just bad luck.

He's still a dominant ground ball pitcher (56.5GB%) and is striking out hitters as a good rate. He'll turn it around. He's a high-ish WHIP pitcher that is giving up HRs like crazy, and man is it ugly, but he'll turn it around. Buy low.


Well said for a new guy. ;-)

But lets be honest, this guy has been one of the most consistant aces in all of baseball in the last 4 years. These numbers include all seasons over 200 IP, ERA's of 3.41 3.26 2.75 and 3.11, and good K numbers. Sure his WHIP isnt ace-like, but its mostly because of the tough stretches he goes through during the seasons like the one he's having right now. There is no reason to panic here just like there is no reason to panic about Andruw Jones, Mark Teixiera, Michael Young, etc... the reason is that they are consistant producers and the numbers will be there by years end.

Also, people take Carlos' "temper" way too far. The bottom line is that this guy is a competitor. He's going out there to win ballgames and the emotion that you see him show on the hill is what plenty of other pitchers feel, but they just dont show it like Carlos does. And for the people that think that Carlos needs to cool down in order to become a better pitcher, its not going to happen. His competitive spirit and fire is what makes him such a great pitcher out there. I remember last year they tried to make him less emotional out there on the mound, and it this point in the season last year, people were calling him to go back to the old Carlos because of his slow start.

So the main message here is...

Just Relax, its still only April. B-)
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Postby chadlincoln » Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:10 pm

I reserve the right to bring this thread back up in July. ;-D
7/26 - Cafe goes down:

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Postby dmendro » Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:19 pm

the inside scoop from Steve Stone is that he is dropping his arm down when he is trying to over throw. He says thats bad for a sinker baller because you then lose your downward motion on your pitches. I would say it won't take long for him to get back into the swing of things. He looked alot better last time out.
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Postby LukeW9027 » Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:43 pm

dmendro wrote:the inside scoop from Steve Stone is that he is dropping his arm down when he is trying to over throw. He says thats bad for a sinker baller because you then lose your downward motion on your pitches. I would say it won't take long for him to get back into the swing of things. He looked alot better last time out.


If there is one man on this planet that I would listen to regarding pitching, It would be Steve Stone. The man is a genius. Also, Steve Phillips did a bit on Zambrano on Baseball Tonight and broke down film mentioning that Zambrano's arm slot had been dropping down.
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Postby teddy ballgame » Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:47 pm

I've never been a fan. He just walks too many guys.
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Postby nolanwood » Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:51 pm

Two good months?

I'd have to call B.S on that one....

Also, Zambrano is light years ahead of being the head case he was when he came up - there's no comparison. Probably oughta actually follow his games instead of catching some moron's banter in between nothin' but Yankees and Red Sox coverage.
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Postby Ender » Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:56 pm

nolanwood wrote:Two good months?

I'd have to call B.S on that one....

Also, Zambrano is light years ahead of being the head case he was when he came up - there's no comparison. Probably oughta actually follow his games instead of catching some moron's banter in between nothin' but Yankees and Red Sox coverage.


ERA/WHIP by month last yaer

5.35/1.72
1.90/1.05
1.96/1.01
4.15/1.28
3.63/1.39
4.03/1.43

He was amazing in May/June, he was about replacement level for ERA+WHIP in 3 months and he was terrible in 1 month. The K's stayed throughout and he got ok Wins which kept his value up but he really only pitched well two months all of last year.
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Postby WTP » Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:57 pm

LukeW9027 wrote:
dmendro wrote:the inside scoop from Steve Stone is that he is dropping his arm down when he is trying to over throw. He says thats bad for a sinker baller because you then lose your downward motion on your pitches. I would say it won't take long for him to get back into the swing of things. He looked alot better last time out.


If there is one man on this planet that I would listen to regarding pitching, It would be Steve Stone. The man is a genius. Also, Steve Phillips did a bit on Zambrano on Baseball Tonight and broke down film mentioning that Zambrano's arm slot had been dropping down.


With all due respect guys, Zambrano is getting MORE ground balls this year than at any other point in his career. He's not losing the downward motion on his pitches.

Zambrano's GB% this year is 56.5%, compared to 46.9%, 50%, and 50.5% the last three seasons. He's getting more ground balls, and simply getting unlucky when the ball is in the air.

It's early, wait it out. Don't get me wrong though, it's fun to discuss.
Last edited by WTP on Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby LukeW9027 » Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:57 pm

Ender wrote:
nolanwood wrote:Two good months?

I'd have to call B.S on that one....

Also, Zambrano is light years ahead of being the head case he was when he came up - there's no comparison. Probably oughta actually follow his games instead of catching some moron's banter in between nothin' but Yankees and Red Sox coverage.


ERA/WHIP by month last yaer

5.35/1.72
1.90/1.05
1.96/1.01
4.15/1.28
3.63/1.39
4.03/1.43

He was amazing in May/June, he was about replacement level for ERA+WHIP in 3 months and he was terrible in 1 month. The K's stayed throughout and he got ok Wins which kept his value up but he really only pitched well two months all of last year.


Well this is all fine and dandy, but a win is a win and a good outing is a good outing. Doesnt matter for Roto players. ;-D
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Postby nolanwood » Thu Apr 26, 2007 6:03 pm

Ender wrote:
nolanwood wrote:Two good months?

I'd have to call B.S on that one....

Also, Zambrano is light years ahead of being the head case he was when he came up - there's no comparison. Probably oughta actually follow his games instead of catching some moron's banter in between nothin' but Yankees and Red Sox coverage.


ERA/WHIP by month last yaer

5.35/1.72
1.90/1.05
1.96/1.01
4.15/1.28
3.63/1.39
4.03/1.43

He was amazing in May/June, he was about replacement level for ERA+WHIP in 3 months and he was terrible in 1 month. The K's stayed throughout and he got ok Wins which kept his value up but he really only pitched well two months all of last year.


Replacement level is his 3.63 era in August? How about in July with the 4.15 era and a record of 6-0. One awful game was the cause of his inflated era, and he still got the win. I'd take these #'s any year, especially considering the horrid team he had behind him:

16wins 210 K's 3.41era 1.29whip
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