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BJ Upton - Good Enough To Carry as a Primary 3B...?

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Postby Rhydderch » Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:29 pm

d18Mike wrote:I'm not a big Sabermaterics guy, but in some cases you can't ignore it, especially when the delta between past and current performance is so dramatic. I hope he is a .300 hitter. But odds are he won't even come close. Pulling the info. below from the Baseball HQ (Ron Sandler) site and I have seen very similar seniments expressed elsewhere. His expected BA is .255-.270. No skin off my nose either way, but I'm betting with the math guys.

-----------------------
ANALYSIS: 4/24/2007 - Hit rate fueling Upton's hot start... After batting just .246 in 175 major league at-bats in 2006, B.J. Upton (2B, TB) is hitting much better this time around. After the season's first 3 weeks, he is hitting .340/.400/.560, along with 2 home runs and 2 stolen bases. A look at his BPI's tells us what the difference has been:

Year AB Avg xBA OPS bb% ct% h% Eye PX SX
==== === ==== ==== ==== === === == ==== === ===
2004* 527 .302 .268 .853 12 75 38 0.55 113 125
2005# 536 .275 N/A .773 10 84 31 0.72 96 118
2006* 573 .258 .259 .702 12 79 31 0.63 65 135
2007 50 .340 .255 .960 9 60 54 0.25 185 127

*Includes MLE's
#MLE's

Fifty at-bats is a small sample size, but the BPI's suggest that Upton has opened up his swing this year, as his PX has increased dramatically, but his ct% has dropped to just 60 percent. Despite the low ct%, Upton's ridiculous 54 percent h% has allowed him to hit for a high average so far. However, his xBA of .255 shows where his average is headed if he doesn't make adjustments. Upton has once again displayed above average speed, and can be counted on to be a solid contributor in the stolen base category. Still just 22 years old, Upton certainly appears to have a bright future ahead of him. However, the current PX and batting average will drop considerably as the season goes on.


The thing to remember about this stuff is it doesn't account for speed and power. Power hitters often hitter above there xBA because they more balls out of the park where they can't be caught. If a player has 600 at bats, the difference between a 300 average and a 275 averge is 15 hits (i.e 15 homeruns).

Similarily with speed, if a player can beat out a few infield hits because he's fast he will be able to hit above his xBA. Upton has both decent power and good speed, so he should hit above his xBA. With that said, I'm hoping, but not expecting, for a 280 average.
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Postby itodd » Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:48 pm

he beat out Eric Chavez for my starting 3b position by the end of the 2nd week, and I'm first place in a very competitive yahoo champions league.

;-D

so yes. I think he's worth it.
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Postby godallahstar » Thu Apr 26, 2007 2:57 pm

d18Mike wrote:I'm not a big Sabermaterics guy, but in some cases you can't ignore it, especially when the delta between past and current performance is so dramatic. I hope he is a .300 hitter. But odds are he won't even come close.


it's too bad these numbers don't factor in that he was making huge adjustments in the years where his avg was down, or factoring in the way the organization screwed with him, or how about how he was solely focused on defense and errors during those seasons.

you're also missing 2003 where he hit .296 in 489 AB between A and AA as an 18 year old.

and 2004 when at 19 he split the season between AA, AAA and in Tampa.
During which he had 159 AB in the Majors hitting .258 and even adding that to his year he STILL hit .297

2005 he spent the entire year in AAA hitting .303

BJ has been young for every league he's been in,
he's now 22 and finally given a full time job in the majors.

i'm fine with calling him a .280 hitter, i think that's underestimating.
maybe if he doesn't reach anywhere near his potential he'll hit .270,
but calling him a .250-270 hitter is absolutely mind boggling.
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Postby d18Mike » Thu Apr 26, 2007 3:01 pm

Fair enough -- I'm still not buying it. I'll tag this thread for follow-up mid-year. Since I have him, I'd be delighted to admit defeat. :-)
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Postby Area51's » Thu Apr 26, 2007 3:11 pm

Thinking of trading him right now for Burrell just to beef up my OF.

I like that he has 2b and 3b eligibility...and hasn't even started to run. But as of 4-26 he has 20 K's and only 5 BB and that means hes striking out a ton, and yes everything he HAS hit has fallen in (although he's been scorching the ball).

Got him real late, so I guess I can't go wrong. Would like to see him quit striking out so much, which would probably get him moved up to #2.
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Postby godallahstar » Thu Apr 26, 2007 3:15 pm

d18Mike wrote:Fair enough -- I'm still not buying it. I'll tag this thread for follow-up mid-year. Since I have him, I'd be delighted to admit defeat. :-)


feel free to remind me too.

sure he could struggle this year,
but long term I really really think he looks like a 290/300 hitter
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Postby Rounders » Thu Apr 26, 2007 4:26 pm

Hitting 7 instead of 9 today - that's incouraging.
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Postby Area51's » Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:15 pm

Rounders wrote:Hitting 7 instead of 9 today - that's incouraging.


and struck out two more times......pretty good strikeout rate.....man I'm torn!
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Postby dclark0699 » Sat Apr 28, 2007 4:43 pm

7th again.

1-1 with a Solo HR so far today
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Postby Rounders » Sat Apr 28, 2007 5:32 pm

dclark0699 wrote:7th again.

1-1 with a Solo HR so far today


2-2, HR, Double, 2 R.

I'm playing him as my primary 3B in one league, and as my MI in another. In the league I have him as my 3B, I drafted him, Tracy, Gordon, and Zimmerman late in the draft. Unfortunately none of the other 3 have worked out so far, so he won the spot by default.
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