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BJ Upton - Good Enough To Carry as a Primary 3B...?

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BJ Upton - Good Enough To Carry as a Primary 3B...?

Postby Super Manny » Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:27 am

Is BJ Upton solid enough fantasy-wise to carry as your fantasy team's primary third baseman? I'm sure a lot of us got lucky in picking BJ up in the last few rounds of our drafts, or even off of the FA wire, providing some roster flexibility at 3rd.

My thoughts...? Yeah, I think so. Sure, he doesn't have the prototypical power you'd expect from the position, but it's not like he's a slouch with the bat, either. With speed and stolen bases at a premium, Upton's stock raises even further. If Chone Figgins has been considered a solid option over the past several seasons, I think at least the same can be said for BJ.

What do you guys think...? :-?
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Postby Havok1517 » Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:30 am

I think right now yes if u can stomach his average with the rest of ur team.
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Postby Prooks25 » Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:32 am

Havok1517 wrote:I think right now yes if u can stomach his average with the rest of ur team.


I don't think it will be too hard to stomach a .333+ average.
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Postby Havok1517 » Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:34 am

Prooks25 wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:I think right now yes if u can stomach his average with the rest of ur team.


I don't think it will be too hard to stomach a .333+ average.


u really think that will stay that way?
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Postby thedude » Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:46 am

Havok1517 wrote:
Prooks25 wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:I think right now yes if u can stomach his average with the rest of ur team.


I don't think it will be too hard to stomach a .333+ average.


u really think that will stay that way?


Not .333, but he hit well above .300 on numberous occasions in the minors. A terrible 2006 draged his minor career average just below .300, but nothing was right with him last year. He is a legit 5 tool player.
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Postby shasty mcnasty » Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:47 am

Havok1517 wrote:
Prooks25 wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:I think right now yes if u can stomach his average with the rest of ur team.


I don't think it will be too hard to stomach a .333+ average.


u really think that will stay that way?


well, you did say, right now...
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Postby d18Mike » Thu Apr 26, 2007 7:52 am

Upton's .300-plus BA to this point is a cruel mirage. His hits/balls in play ratio thus far is absolutely unsustainable -- I think at one recent point it was the highest in MLB (50%+). Once this normalizes and we see the effect of his high K rate, he'll be lucky to sniff .270. I could be wrong.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 26, 2007 8:55 am

Havok1517 wrote:
Prooks25 wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:I think right now yes if u can stomach his average with the rest of ur team.


I don't think it will be too hard to stomach a .333+ average.


u really think that will stay that way?


Check out his minor league career. He'll hit .290+ easily when you consider his speed.
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Postby High Heater » Thu Apr 26, 2007 9:02 am

Yoda wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:
Prooks25 wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:I think right now yes if u can stomach his average with the rest of ur team.


I don't think it will be too hard to stomach a .333+ average.


u really think that will stay that way?


Check out his minor league career. He'll hit .290+ easily when you consider his speed.


agreed ;-D
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Postby d18Mike » Thu Apr 26, 2007 11:57 am

I'm not a big Sabermaterics guy, but in some cases you can't ignore it, especially when the delta between past and current performance is so dramatic. I hope he is a .300 hitter. But odds are he won't even come close. Pulling the info. below from the Baseball HQ (Ron Sandler) site and I have seen very similar seniments expressed elsewhere. His expected BA is .255-.270. No skin off my nose either way, but I'm betting with the math guys.

-----------------------
ANALYSIS: 4/24/2007 - Hit rate fueling Upton's hot start... After batting just .246 in 175 major league at-bats in 2006, B.J. Upton (2B, TB) is hitting much better this time around. After the season's first 3 weeks, he is hitting .340/.400/.560, along with 2 home runs and 2 stolen bases. A look at his BPI's tells us what the difference has been:

Year AB Avg xBA OPS bb% ct% h% Eye PX SX
==== === ==== ==== ==== === === == ==== === ===
2004* 527 .302 .268 .853 12 75 38 0.55 113 125
2005# 536 .275 N/A .773 10 84 31 0.72 96 118
2006* 573 .258 .259 .702 12 79 31 0.63 65 135
2007 50 .340 .255 .960 9 60 54 0.25 185 127

*Includes MLE's
#MLE's

Fifty at-bats is a small sample size, but the BPI's suggest that Upton has opened up his swing this year, as his PX has increased dramatically, but his ct% has dropped to just 60 percent. Despite the low ct%, Upton's ridiculous 54 percent h% has allowed him to hit for a high average so far. However, his xBA of .255 shows where his average is headed if he doesn't make adjustments. Upton has once again displayed above average speed, and can be counted on to be a solid contributor in the stolen base category. Still just 22 years old, Upton certainly appears to have a bright future ahead of him. However, the current PX and batting average will drop considerably as the season goes on.
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