Is BJ Upton solid enough fantasy-wise to carry as your fantasy team's primary third baseman? I'm sure a lot of us got lucky in picking BJ up in the last few rounds of our drafts, or even off of the FA wire, providing some roster flexibility at 3rd.
My thoughts...? Yeah, I think so. Sure, he doesn't have the prototypical power you'd expect from the position, but it's not like he's a slouch with the bat, either. With speed and stolen bases at a premium, Upton's stock raises even further. If Chone Figgins has been considered a solid option over the past several seasons, I think at least the same can be said for BJ.
What do you guys think...?
"When you don't feel good and you still get hits, that's when you know you are a bad man." -Manuel A. Ramirez
Havok1517 wrote:I think right now yes if u can stomach his average with the rest of ur team.
I don't think it will be too hard to stomach a .333+ average.
u really think that will stay that way?
Not .333, but he hit well above .300 on numberous occasions in the minors. A terrible 2006 draged his minor career average just below .300, but nothing was right with him last year. He is a legit 5 tool player.
"I do not think baseball of today is any better than it was 30 years ago... I still think Radbourne is the greatest of the pitchers." John Sullivan 1914-Old athletes never change.
Upton's .300-plus BA to this point is a cruel mirage. His hits/balls in play ratio thus far is absolutely unsustainable -- I think at one recent point it was the highest in MLB (50%+). Once this normalizes and we see the effect of his high K rate, he'll be lucky to sniff .270. I could be wrong.
I'm not a big Sabermaterics guy, but in some cases you can't ignore it, especially when the delta between past and current performance is so dramatic. I hope he is a .300 hitter. But odds are he won't even come close. Pulling the info. below from the Baseball HQ (Ron Sandler) site and I have seen very similar seniments expressed elsewhere. His expected BA is .255-.270. No skin off my nose either way, but I'm betting with the math guys.
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ANALYSIS: 4/24/2007 - Hit rate fueling Upton's hot start... After batting just .246 in 175 major league at-bats in 2006, B.J. Upton (2B, TB) is hitting much better this time around. After the season's first 3 weeks, he is hitting .340/.400/.560, along with 2 home runs and 2 stolen bases. A look at his BPI's tells us what the difference has been:
Fifty at-bats is a small sample size, but the BPI's suggest that Upton has opened up his swing this year, as his PX has increased dramatically, but his ct% has dropped to just 60 percent. Despite the low ct%, Upton's ridiculous 54 percent h% has allowed him to hit for a high average so far. However, his xBA of .255 shows where his average is headed if he doesn't make adjustments. Upton has once again displayed above average speed, and can be counted on to be a solid contributor in the stolen base category. Still just 22 years old, Upton certainly appears to have a bright future ahead of him. However, the current PX and batting average will drop considerably as the season goes on.
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by Super Manny » Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:27 am 
