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Postby George_Foreman » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:17 am

Bloody Sox wrote:Wow... 99% of the posts around here contain some variant of the phrase "it's only April, be patient". Bonds and Hudson were drafted after the 10th round for a reason... same with Manny and Zambrano being drafted so high. I'm kind of shocked by the responses here. Oh well - to each his own I guess.
Reasons were: people weren't sure about Bond's status, and people weren't convinved that Hudson's stuff was really back.

Did you see Hudson's game against the Mets? He looked pretty good.... And Bonds is healthy.

Don't get me wrong, I'd do the deal. But Zambrano has looked pretty ugly, and I can see how, depending on league settings, people might want to stick with Hudson/Bonds. I just don't think it's a no-brainer like some aperantly do.
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Postby Ender » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:18 am

Hudson's splitter is back one month every year, I'm not gonna believe he can do it for a full year until he does it for at least half a year.
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Postby mak1277 » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:23 am

It's just a matter of thinking outside the box really. Everyone knows about the "buy low/sell high" theory of trading. So, why not exploit that if you really believe in a few players.

If you believe in Bonds and Hudson, and think they are going to continue to roll...and you believe that Manny and Zambrano are going to continue to struggle, what's wrong with acting on that? Value is all about perception anyway.

Now, I admit that you could probably acquire Bonds/Hudson for something less than Manny/Zambrano, which does kind of show the flaw in the theory, however, it's not insane...at least not to me.
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Postby Bloody Sox » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:24 am

If a draft were held today, where would these 4 guys be taken? I find it hard to believe that Manny would be taken after the second round, Zambrano might slip to the fourth, Hudson would still be taken after the 10th, and Bonds would be taken much higher than where he was drafted but still no higher than the 6th or 7th - he is extremely injury prone and old, regardless of how he's looked for 3 little weeks in April.

And while I agree that its refreshing to hear guys go out on a limb and make bold predictions, you have to draw a line somewhere. If you replaced "Manny" with "Pujols" in this scenario, would you still sing the same tune? Not suggesting that Manny is as valuable as Pujols obviously, but I think the idea of trading Pujols and Zambrano for Bonds and Hudson wouldn't be any less absurd.
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Postby Ender » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:26 am

I would draft Manny late 2nd or early 3rd round. I wouldn't draft Zambrano until about round 9. I'd draft Bonds around round 8 or 9 because we don't use daily lineups and he's gonna sit more as the year goes on. I'd draft Hudson in the low teens probably, 13, 14 or so.
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Postby George_Foreman » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:29 am

Ender wrote:Hudson's splitter is back one month every year, I'm not gonna believe he can do it for a full year until he does it for at least half a year.
Huh? This is like the first time he's thrown the pitch in Atlanta. It's not that it wasn't working, it's that he wasn't throwing it for whatever reason the past two years. I think he wasn't comfortable with it because of injuries or something, I don't know. But he's throwing it this year and it's working great. Not saying he'll post a sub-1.00 ERA this year, just that he's got a good shot at out-performing Zambrano.
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Postby Ender » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:39 am

George_Foreman wrote:
Ender wrote:Hudson's splitter is back one month every year, I'm not gonna believe he can do it for a full year until he does it for at least half a year.
Huh? This is like the first time he's thrown the pitch in Atlanta. It's not that it wasn't working, it's that he wasn't throwing it for whatever reason the past two years. I think he wasn't comfortable with it because of injuries or something, I don't know. But he's throwing it this year and it's working great. Not saying he'll post a sub-1.00 ERA this year, just that he's got a good shot at out-performing Zambrano.


All I know is every year he has a hot streak and every year people come on here and talk about how he looks just like he did back in the day and every year he's mediocre by the end of the season. Not a believer.
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Postby masterpinky0509 » Tue Apr 24, 2007 11:05 am

You have to remember, Hudson was considered a far better pitcher than Zambrano as recently as 2-3 years ago (remember his first switch year to Atl? He was being hyped as a 3rd round ace).

If he really is back to form, no reason he can't do that again.

Admittedly I would take the deal, since Man-Ram is a better bet for production and health than Bonds.

I'm just saying it's not ludicrous, Zambrano does not look good this year.
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Postby great gretzky » Tue Apr 24, 2007 11:30 am

The fact that people think that Hudson is some unproven player is a tad silly. He is devalued because of a bad stint, but he has shown he has ace potential. I wouldn't take Bonds over Manny at this point, but again, just two years ago, it was the other way around. If I was hell bent on making the deal, it would be because of perceived value, and I would turn around and deal zambrano or bonds for even more.

But I don't think its that out of the possibility, both bonds and atlanta seem to be back to me.
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Postby Crippler » Tue Apr 24, 2007 12:23 pm

Its absolutely horrible advice. I dont care if he's going against the grain or not. Telling someone to sell their $20 bill for two $5's is also against the grain....and just as stupid.
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