rcarena wrote:So, given that he's a borderline C, would you start Lilly vs the Brewers? I also have Sheets who I will start...
NH's formula uses stats from last year, but I'm guessing that it does not consider that Lilly was playing in the AL East last year, and that he is now playing in the NL, where the hitters haven't yet figured him out. That might put his mark up a little bit. (Please let me know if I am wrong, NH.)
Glad to have you back NH!!! I was lost without your mathmatical guidance. I tried to start Nomar against the Mets.....but I got lucky and he didn't give up any runs.
rcarena wrote:So, given that he's a borderline C, would you start Lilly vs the Brewers? I also have Sheets who I will start...
NH's formula uses stats from last year, but I'm guessing that it does not consider that Lilly was playing in the AL East last year, and that he is now playing in the NL, where the hitters haven't yet figured him out. That might put his mark up a little bit. (Please let me know if I am wrong, NH.)
Personally, I would sit Lilly unless you don't think you will have anyone better to use those innings or there's a reason not included in the ranking that you think he'll do better (weather, batter/pitcher matchups, etc). I agree with starting Sheets.
QSM, the ratings take into account the standard changes in park and league but do not give him a boost for being unfamiliar to NL hitters. So if you think that will help him you can boost him slightly. I'm personally skeptical about whether this really makes a difference. I've seen lots of people mention it but I'm not sure if anyone has done a study to see if there is really a difference. I'm sure there are lots of anecdotal examples but it's possible those are the ones we notice/remember because they fit with our preconceived notions.
Edited with Burnett starting for Toronto.
Edited with updates from Wednesday stats.
Starter - Opp Grade
chamels vs. was A
bpenny vs. sf B
phughes vs. tor B-
jbeckett @ bal B-
cyoung @ ari B-
bcolon vs. tb B-
bbonser vs. kc C+
pbyrd vs. tex C
nrobertson @ cws C
jcontreras vs. det C-
klohse @ stl C-
wrodriguez @ pit D+
aloewen vs. bos D
mbatista @ oak D
zgreinke @ min D
rkeisler vs. cin D
jkennedy vs. sea D
aburnett @ nyy D-
kloe @ cle D-
shill @ phi D-
tarmas vs. hou F
jseo @ laa F
lhernandez vs. sd F
ruortiz @ lad F
These rankings are based on mathematical calculations of projected performance in Wins, ERA, WHIP, and Ks. They are designed for a 12 team, 5x5 roto league. The ratings are less reliable for pitchers with few major league starts so take those with a grain of salt.
The projections are based pitchers' stats adjusted for age, league, park, and opposition. They don't take into account a pitcher's health, his history against a particular team or the health of the opposing lineup. And while they are adjusted for average park factors, they don't factor in a pitcher's or team's individual home/away splits or other splits like left/right, day/night, etc. So those are some other pieces of information you may want to compare with my rankings in forming your own conclusions.
Generally, I try to only start pitchers who have a grade of B- or better in a standard 12 team 5x5 roto league, though sometimes I will consider someone with a C grade. Pitchers below C- I would definitely recommend to stay away/bench unless you are in a larger league, different scoring system, or you are looking for quantity with little regard to quality.
Last edited by NHsportsfan on Thu Apr 26, 2007 10:02 am, edited 2 times in total.
NHsportsfan wrote: QSM, the ratings take into account the standard changes in park and league but do not give him a boost for being unfamiliar to NL hitters. So if you think that will help him you can boost him slightly. I'm personally skeptical about whether this really makes a difference. I've seen lots of people mention it but I'm not sure if anyone has done a study to see if there is really a difference. I'm sure there are lots of anecdotal examples but it's possible those are the ones we notice/remember because they fit with our preconceived notions.
Maybe your right, that I have only noticed the ones where it has worked. But it seems to me that whenever a pitcher goes from the AL (especially the East) to the NL, they thrive in that first year. I could be proven wrong. If it isn't the case, then I'm sure someone can give me some recent examples of pitchers that haven't done well under those circumstances. I give as examples, Pedro, Arroyo and Young. I feel like I should be able to find more if I research it, but I don't have time to research it at the moment, so as it stands, it is only a few examples, and I could easily be wrong. At any rate, I don't have Lilly, so I can't play him. Given the marks you gave him, maybe thats a good thing, cause I probably would play him. lol.
Welcome back NH, your insight last year was a blessing and although I've gotten to a pretty good start so far in pitching, I will definitely need your guide throughout the season. Keep up the great work.
NHsportsfan wrote: QSM, the ratings take into account the standard changes in park and league but do not give him a boost for being unfamiliar to NL hitters. So if you think that will help him you can boost him slightly. I'm personally skeptical about whether this really makes a difference. I've seen lots of people mention it but I'm not sure if anyone has done a study to see if there is really a difference. I'm sure there are lots of anecdotal examples but it's possible those are the ones we notice/remember because they fit with our preconceived notions.
Maybe your right, that I have only noticed the ones where it has worked. But it seems to me that whenever a pitcher goes from the AL (especially the East) to the NL, they thrive in that first year. I could be proven wrong. If it isn't the case, then I'm sure someone can give me some recent examples of pitchers that haven't done well under those circumstances. I give as examples, Pedro, Arroyo and Young. I feel like I should be able to find more if I research it, but I don't have time to research it at the moment, so as it stands, it is only a few examples, and I could easily be wrong. At any rate, I don't have Lilly, so I can't play him. Given the marks you gave him, maybe thats a good thing, cause I probably would play him. lol.
Well you would expect their numbers to improve primarily because they are now facing pitchers instead of DHs. Pitchers like Young would also benefit from moving from a hitters to a pitchers park. There's also evidence that the AL has been a little better than the NL recently (interleague play, payrolls, World Series and All Star results). That would help too and is not factored into my calculations at present.
I did a simple test to try to see if there is a particular benefit the first year after changing leagues due to unfamiliarity. I looked for every starting pitcher since 2000 who started at least 20 games in the AL East one year then started at least 20 games in the NL each of the following two years. I then compared their ERA+ from baseball-reference.com.
The list included 9 pitchers: Clemens, Lidle, Lieber, Lowe, Martinez, Nomo, Trachsel, Weaver, and Wilson.
The average ERA+ for their year in the AL East was 98
The first year in the NL was 111
The second year in the NL was 119
So the pitchers definitely benefitted from the move to the NL. But instead of leveling off the 2nd year after NL hitters were more familiar with them they actually did even better. That suggests the improvement was due to other factors. For every pitcher like Martinez who did worse their second year in the NL there were others like Clemens and Lowe who did even better.
9 pitchers is still a pretty small sample so I wouldn't draw too firm of conclusions from this but it at least leans against pitchers getting a big bonus just from the other league being unfamiliar with them.
Thanks to everyone who has welcomed me back! It's nice to hear that the rankings are helpful and appreciated.
Date: Friday, 4/27/07
Edited with Robertson starting for Detroit, Contreras for the White Sox, and updated from Thursday stats.
Starter - Opp Grade
roswalt vs. mil B+
dmatsuzaka @ nyy B
isnell vs. cin B
cgaudin vs. tb B-
areyes vs. chc B-
nrobertson vs. min B-
cjames @ col B-
jshields @ oak B-
bzito @ ari C+
hramirez vs. kc C+
apettitte vs. bos C+
olperez @ was C+
ccapuano @ hou C
jwestbrook vs. bal C
jcontreras vs. laa C
chensley vs. lad C-
esantana @ cws C-
fgarcia vs. fla C-
asanchez @ phi D+
rtejeda @ tor D+
ddavis vs. sf D+
jmarquis @ stl D+
jtowers vs. tex D+
mhendrickson @ sd D+
emilton @ pit D
mchico vs. nym D-
jdelarosa @ sea D-
jfrancis vs. atl F
raortiz @ det F
strachsel @ cle F
These rankings are based on mathematical calculations of projected performance in Wins, ERA, WHIP, and Ks. They are designed for a 12 team, 5x5 roto league. The ratings are less reliable for pitchers with few major league starts so take those with a grain of salt.
The projections are based pitchers' stats adjusted for age, league, park, and opposition. They don't take into account a pitcher's health, his history against a particular team or the health of the opposing lineup. And while they are adjusted for average park factors, they don't factor in a pitcher's or team's individual home/away splits or other splits like left/right, day/night, etc. So those are some other pieces of information you may want to compare with my rankings in forming your own conclusions.
Generally, I try to only start pitchers who have a grade of B- or better in a standard 12 team 5x5 roto league, though sometimes I will consider someone with a C grade. Pitchers below C- I would definitely recommend to stay away/bench unless you are in a larger league, different scoring system, or you are looking for quantity with little regard to quality.
Last edited by NHsportsfan on Fri Apr 27, 2007 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
Cafe Home
Fantasy Football
Fantasy Basketball
Fantasy Hockey
by rcarena » Wed Apr 25, 2007 3:42 am 
