OK, I'm back and ready to go for 2007. For now, I'm going to post rankings in the same format I did for 2006. I have improvements I'd like to implement but I don't want to wait longer to start posting rankings while I tweak the system.
I'll edit this first post as the season goes along to note any changes I make. I think it's better to have a clean start for this season, so if I can get a mod to sticky this post and unsticky last year's I would be grateful.
Let me highlight at the start that these grades are based on calculations, not my own subjective opinions. And I don't adjust them for injury status so exercise caution if a pitcher may not be 100%. I'll post the basic methodology at the bottom of each day's rankings as a reminder.
Last year, I posted a link to Perlick's thread at the end of every post. I'm not going to do that this year, not because I like Perlick's picks any less, but if you're in this forum you should have no problem finding his sticky. Let me just say here that I fully recommend using his posts along with PWF's and others as additional sources of information in making your lineup decisions.
Feel free to post questions, disagreements, or constructive criticism (but please try to be civil). I'll try to respond as I can but I may not always be able to answer every comment.
Finally, let me just offer the reminder that you should always make your roster decisions based on what you think is best for your team. I offer my rankings as a resource that I hope can help you but they should just be one piece of information you use in making your decisions. Starts I have given a high grade can sometimes end up being awful and vice versa. I don't advocate blindly following my rankings without doing your own analysis to inform your decisions.
Starter - Opp Grade
jerweaver vs. det A
dwillis vs. atl B+
jmaine vs. col B+
czambrano vs. mil B
mbuehrle @ kc B
kigawa @ tb B-
ebedard vs. oak B-
dharen @ bal B-
jsowers @ min C
twakefield vs. tor C
csampson @ phi C-
kmillwood vs. sea D+
cvargas @ chc D+
mmaroth @ laa D
aeaton vs. hou D
gmeche vs. cws D
kdavies @ fla D-
cbaek @ tex F
csilva vs. cle F
tohka @ bos F
tbuchholz @ nym F
cfossum vs. nyy F
These rankings are based on mathematical calculations of projected performance in Wins, ERA, WHIP, and Ks. They are designed for a 12 team, 5x5 roto league. The ratings are less reliable for pitchers with few major league starts so take those with a grain of salt.
The projections are based pitchers' stats adjusted for age, league, park, and opposition. They don't take into account a pitcher's health, his history against a particular team or the health of the opposing lineup. And while they are adjusted for average park factors, they don't factor in a pitcher's or team's individual home/away splits or other splits like left/right, day/night, etc. So those are some other pieces of information you may want to compare with my rankings in forming your own conclusions.
Generally, I try to only start pitchers who have a grade of B- or better in a standard 12 team 5x5 roto league, though sometimes I will consider someone with a C grade. Pitchers below C- I would definitely recommend to stay away/bench unless you are in a larger league, different scoring system, or you are looking for quantity with little regard to quality.
Edited with D. Braden starting for Oakland.
Edited with updates from Monday night stats.
Starter - Opp Grade
jsantana vs. cle A+
rhill vs. mil B+
ohernandez vs. col B
rhalladay @ bos B
jbonderman @ laa B
kescobar vs. det B-
jvazquez @ kc B-
aharang @ stl B-
dlowe vs. sf B-
rjohnson vs. sd C+
cwang @ tb C
kwells vs. cin C
jmoyer vs. was C-
dbraden @ bal C-
bbannister vs. cws C-
skazmir vs. nyy D+
jwashburn @ tex D+
dwells @ ari D+
jsuppan @ chc D+
pmaholm vs. hou D+
wwilliams @ pit D
jguthrie vs. oak D
rvandenhurk vs. atl D-
jtavarez vs. tor D-
acook @ nym D-
mmorris @ lad D-
vpadilla vs. sea D-
mredman @ fla F
jbergmann @ phi F
fcarmona @ min F
These rankings are based on mathematical calculations of projected performance in Wins, ERA, WHIP, and Ks. They are designed for a 12 team, 5x5 roto league. The ratings are less reliable for pitchers with few major league starts so take those with a grain of salt.
The projections are based pitchers' stats adjusted for age, league, park, and opposition. They don't take into account a pitcher's health, his history against a particular team or the health of the opposing lineup. And while they are adjusted for average park factors, they don't factor in a pitcher's or team's individual home/away splits or other splits like left/right, day/night, etc. So those are some other pieces of information you may want to compare with my rankings in forming your own conclusions.
Generally, I try to only start pitchers who have a grade of B- or better in a standard 12 team 5x5 roto league, though sometimes I will consider someone with a C grade. Pitchers below C- I would definitely recommend to stay away/bench unless you are in a larger league, different scoring system, or you are looking for quantity with little regard to quality.
Last edited by NHsportsfan on Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:29 am, edited 2 times in total.
bigwords wrote:Just curious about what led to Millwood's low grade.
Texas is a strong hitter's park and the Mariners are a good hitting team. High risk to ERA/WHIP. Note that last year Millwood had a 5.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP at home.
Although, by what standard is Seattle a good hitting team? They rank 26th in runs scored, 28th in OBP, and last in total bases.
Not arguing, feeling more than a little nervous about starting Millwood and searching for a good logical reason to sit him.
Remember, Seattle missed a bunch of games around the Cleveland snow-outs so they will be low in totals. They also play their home games in a pitcher's park so that also makes them look worse.
I use a combination of season stats, last season's stats, and stats from the last month to rate teams and I look at it on a per-game basis then park adjust the numbers. (For those interested, the weight given to last season's stats decreases throughout the season and the numbers are also regressed.)
I have Seattle as 17th in runs, 14th in hits per game, last in BBs per game, and the 6th hardest team to record strikeouts against. So, they're really more of a mediocre hitting team overall but should be a good hitting team at Texas.
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by NHsportsfan » Mon Apr 23, 2007 2:10 pm 
