Wow! Talk of 40 HRs from a guy who hit just 25 a year ago and plays half his games in PetCo
30-35 is where he should be. He has legit power and more of his line drive doubles will carry this season. I like him quite a bit in H2H because he should stay pretty consistent throughout the season.
Don't sell this guy short, you dont have to hit 40 to be a nice fantasy 1b. He should be in for plenty of extra base hits with a nice average. That usually leads to good run and rbi production as well. NL West pitching doesn't exactly scare me either.
Of course if the right offer comes along, you consider letting him go, but he isn't a sell high guy because he will be top 10 at 1b this year.