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Postby Snakes Gould » Fri Apr 27, 2007 3:28 pm

BigMusky wrote:Matt Cain and Bartolo Colon are the aces on my staff...not sure if that is a good thing


its not
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Postby Laean » Fri Apr 27, 2007 5:28 pm

Geek wrote:
Laean wrote:
B1leper wrote:
Ender wrote:Sell high as fast as you can.


I think his potential value far exceeds whatever you can get for him at this point. You are not likely to get much in return at this point.

It's like playing with the house's money. That said, if he continues to pitch well and I can get something legitimately good back for him in a month or two, I'll be all over that.


i agree. he IS a sell high, but only an idiot would give anything worth his "sell high value" after 2 starts. if he keeps up a sub 3 era for a month or two, then maybe.

chances are though he'll just be worth keeping anyway. probably will be around 3.60 era, 1.20 whip, and decent Ws and Ks by end of the seaso.


It's funny--a guy starts doing better than expected and people's first instinct is to sell high.

Heck, I'm MORE than happy to just hold onto He Who Is Big and Fat.


then when do you sell high? when someone does as expected? when someone does worse than expected?

of course you sell high when someone does better than expected.
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Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Fri Apr 27, 2007 5:30 pm

Laean wrote:
Geek wrote:
Laean wrote:
B1leper wrote:
Ender wrote:Sell high as fast as you can.


I think his potential value far exceeds whatever you can get for him at this point. You are not likely to get much in return at this point.

It's like playing with the house's money. That said, if he continues to pitch well and I can get something legitimately good back for him in a month or two, I'll be all over that.


i agree. he IS a sell high, but only an idiot would give anything worth his "sell high value" after 2 starts. if he keeps up a sub 3 era for a month or two, then maybe.

chances are though he'll just be worth keeping anyway. probably will be around 3.60 era, 1.20 whip, and decent Ws and Ks by end of the seaso.


It's funny--a guy starts doing better than expected and people's first instinct is to sell high.

Heck, I'm MORE than happy to just hold onto He Who Is Big and Fat.


then when do you sell high? when someone does as expected? when someone does worse than expected?

of course you sell high when someone does better than expected.


I think the point he was making is that you should evaluate it player by player and decide if you think they are going to tail off. Basically, you should hold onto your hot players and not just trade all of them for underachieving players who are supposed to be better than them.
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Postby Geek » Fri Apr 27, 2007 5:31 pm

Laean wrote:
Geek wrote:
Laean wrote:
B1leper wrote:
Ender wrote:Sell high as fast as you can.


I think his potential value far exceeds whatever you can get for him at this point. You are not likely to get much in return at this point.

It's like playing with the house's money. That said, if he continues to pitch well and I can get something legitimately good back for him in a month or two, I'll be all over that.


i agree. he IS a sell high, but only an idiot would give anything worth his "sell high value" after 2 starts. if he keeps up a sub 3 era for a month or two, then maybe.

chances are though he'll just be worth keeping anyway. probably will be around 3.60 era, 1.20 whip, and decent Ws and Ks by end of the seaso.


It's funny--a guy starts doing better than expected and people's first instinct is to sell high.

Heck, I'm MORE than happy to just hold onto He Who Is Big and Fat.


then when do you sell high? when someone does as expected? when someone does worse than expected?

of course you sell high when someone does better than expected.


I didn't make my point clearly enough. It seems that people are eager to unload a guy who has exceeded expectations instead of first asking whether he can keep it up.

In Colon's case, it's not like this is some flash in the pan.
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Postby Laean » Fri Apr 27, 2007 6:39 pm

Geek wrote:
Laean wrote:
Geek wrote:
Laean wrote:
B1leper wrote:
Ender wrote:Sell high as fast as you can.


I think his potential value far exceeds whatever you can get for him at this point. You are not likely to get much in return at this point.

It's like playing with the house's money. That said, if he continues to pitch well and I can get something legitimately good back for him in a month or two, I'll be all over that.


i agree. he IS a sell high, but only an idiot would give anything worth his "sell high value" after 2 starts. if he keeps up a sub 3 era for a month or two, then maybe.

chances are though he'll just be worth keeping anyway. probably will be around 3.60 era, 1.20 whip, and decent Ws and Ks by end of the seaso.


It's funny--a guy starts doing better than expected and people's first instinct is to sell high.

Heck, I'm MORE than happy to just hold onto He Who Is Big and Fat.


then when do you sell high? when someone does as expected? when someone does worse than expected?

of course you sell high when someone does better than expected.


I didn't make my point clearly enough. It seems that people are eager to unload a guy who has exceeded expectations instead of first asking whether he can keep it up.

In Colon's case, it's not like this is some flash in the pan.


i agree that he's not a flash in the pan. and i suspect that he'll be quite solid this year. but there's no question here that he won't keep this up. (1.93 era, .86 whip, 12/1 K/bb ratio). i think you jumped the gun in assuming that people here have not already considered whether he can keep this up, decided that he can't, and thus are promoting selling him high. you should give them more credit.
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Postby Tis » Fri Apr 27, 2007 7:01 pm

George Bell wrote:We are talking about the 2005 AL Cy Young winner here. I targeted him on draft day and managed to snag him on the cheap in both my AL only roto leagues. Colon has shown durability before, throwing 200+ innings in 7 of his 10 pro seasons, and has looked good coming back ahead of schedule and throwing mid 90s in rehab starts. Might be too early to pull the trigger in mixed leagues, but AL only...what are you waiting for?


I picked Colon of the FA list, and am thrilled so far... that said, I'm curious if anyone elses thought on reading this was "Esteban Loaiza".
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