Wharton93 wrote:Snell broke out last year, but kudos to forumers who 'predicted' one this year. Not only did he win 14 games last year, he basically Ked 1 guy per IP in the 2nd half. You can count the number of guys who did both of these things.
As for saying how lucky he was because his run support was high--that's taking the right stat but using it wrongly. If you want to know why he was 'lucky' to win 14, it probably had to do with his good pitching. In his 14 wins, he gave up these ER: 0 0 2 5 1 2 0 1 1 2 1 5 2 1.
In his 14 wins, he gave up more than 2 ER exactly 2 times--so he needed help from that 'lucky' Pirates offense twice. The statisics that get tossed out make it sound like he needed 5.18 runs per game to get a win. Not true. I am sure most 14+ game winners need more than 2 runs scored once in a while. In the 2 games that he gave up more then 2 ER, the Pirates scored 23 runs. If your team scores 11.5 runs for you, you are likely to get a little sloppy and give up a few extra baserunners/runs as you just try to get the game over with.
FWIW, he had another 4 games where he gave up 3 ER or less but didn't get a Win.
That being said, nobody should have paid for Snell to win 14 games again--wins in general is a luck business, especially in today's game. But you should pay for skills and his K rate alone, particularly in the 2nd half of 2006, make him a good buy. Whether he wins 10 or 16 is anyone's guess.
Giving up 5 Unearned runs and still get the win is still lucky. The 5.18 is 5.18 run support over 9 innings. As for his team blowing the other team apart and him getting careless, that only happened once in his 3 "lucky" wins. You make it sound like he had a 5 run lead by the first inning and was just going through the motions, which clearly isnt true.
Having said that, look at Zambrano, Oswalt, and Carpenter, who we can all agree are better pitchers. Zambrano got lucky 2x, Oswalt got lucky 1x, Carpenter got lucky 1x. Now don't you think Snells 3 wins in which he gave up 5 runs or more is kinda lucky?
Also, Snell not winning games where he gave up 3 runs or less is only 4. Oswalt had 12, Carpenter had 7, Zambrano had 9. Now let that sink in a bit, Snell had 4 quality starts in which he didnt get a win. Oswalt tripled that, Carpenter had 3 more, while Zambrano doubled that. This all points to Snell's 14 wins last year as being lucky.
Factor in that Carpenter, Oswalt, and Zambrano all had higher run support / 9 innings then Snell, and that Snell won more games from bad outings than those guys, idk what you can call Snell's 14 games he won last year anything but luck. If you examine this among other pitchers, again you will realize Snell was lucky last season.
Heck, if his Wins from non quality starts and his no decisions from quality starts were normal last year, if he didn't get the highest run support of any full time Pirate SP, he would have been a 7-10 game winner last season. All in all, his last years wins were luck and a 15 win ceiling looks pretty accurate.
If you have Snell, enjoy his Ks, Era and Whip, but dont expect his wins to increase dramatically. Rather, be conservative so you won't be disappointed.