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Snell Ya Later

Postby tuff_gong » Mon Apr 16, 2007 11:03 pm

Snell got his first win tonight (finally), and he's been good so far this season. I drafted him as my 5th starter but he's becoming more valuable each start. Anyone see a breakout year?
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Well that's just like, your opinion man.
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Postby klvrdude » Mon Apr 16, 2007 11:06 pm

Sno
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Postby Dr Evil » Mon Apr 16, 2007 11:17 pm

I think he's gonna breakout but the win totals are gonna suffer.
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Postby jdsun1 » Mon Apr 16, 2007 11:22 pm

Dr Evil wrote:I think he's gonna breakout but the win totals are gonna suffer.


Ditto. Quite a few breakout predictions for him on the forum.
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Postby Dr Evil » Mon Apr 16, 2007 11:30 pm

jdsun1 wrote:
Dr Evil wrote:I think he's gonna breakout but the win totals are gonna suffer.


Ditto. Quite a few breakout predictions for him on the forum.


Thats why I picked him up a few weeks ago ;-D
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Postby BravesGuy » Mon Apr 16, 2007 11:31 pm

Dr Evil wrote:I think he's gonna breakout but the win totals are gonna suffer.


he won 14 last year.
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Postby tianyi86 » Tue Apr 17, 2007 1:02 am

The pirates offense is not very good. Snell will get you the ks and nice ratio, but the wins will be between 10-15, which is nice. But if hes pitching for another club with better offense, he can get between 15-18 wins, which bumps him to elite status.

If you can get nice value for him, I advocate a sell high.

But then I'm biased bc I sold him for zambrano so I guess I have to back up my trades.
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Postby bigh0rt » Tue Apr 17, 2007 1:40 am

tianyi86 wrote:The pirates offense is not very good. Snell will get you the ks and nice ratio, but the wins will be between 10-15, which is nice. But if hes pitching for another club with better offense, he can get between 15-18 wins, which bumps him to elite status.

If you can get nice value for him, I advocate a sell high.

But then I'm biased bc I sold him for zambrano so I guess I have to back up my trades.


Given that Snell won 14 games last year in 32 starts with worse lineup protection (subjective), why would you predict his ceiling to be 1 more when he's shown to be pitching at an elevated level than last season in the early going?
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Postby tianyi86 » Tue Apr 17, 2007 3:42 am

bigh0rt wrote:
tianyi86 wrote:The pirates offense is not very good. Snell will get you the ks and nice ratio, but the wins will be between 10-15, which is nice. But if hes pitching for another club with better offense, he can get between 15-18 wins, which bumps him to elite status.

If you can get nice value for him, I advocate a sell high.

But then I'm biased bc I sold him for zambrano so I guess I have to back up my trades.


Given that Snell won 14 games last year in 32 starts with worse lineup protection (subjective), why would you predict his ceiling to be 1 more when he's shown to be pitching at an elevated level than last season in the early going?


Because he got lucky and won 14 games last season. His run support was 5.18, which places him at #1 in run support of any full time starting pitcher on the pirates last season. If you believe the pirates will again give him the highest run support for their SPs to him again, then you can argue he will be a 15-18 game winner. If he does become an 18 game winner, great. We just witnessed the rise of a young star who put up t5 SP numbers.

But check the following:

Snell won 4 games in which he gave up 5 runs or more, while Zach Duke won only 1.
Zambrano who was lights out last season and having a 5.97 run support, only won1 game in which he gave up 5 runs or more.

More comparison:
Carpenter had run support of 5.40, Oswalt at 5.22, both higher than Snells and I think we would all agree they are better pitchers as well. But these 2 were only 15 game winners. This just goes to show that Snells 14 wins has a pretty big factor of luck, especially after you factor in how much worse he was compared to those 2 last season. Mind you his era was 4.74.

I have a hard time believing that he will get the level of run support like he did last season. If his run support drops to somewhere of Zach Duke's from last season (duke ranked #3 in Run support for the Pirates starters) at 4.82, Snell probably would have been a 9 or 10 game winner last season.

Accounting for run support returns to normal and drop to around 5, rather than the high 4s (following your argument that the offense got better), Snell would be about a 10-12 game winner had he not improved this season. Counting on his improvement, I roughly added 3 wins to Snell's upper limit.

My estimates may be conservative, but I just have a hard time believing in the Pirates offense
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Postby Wharton93 » Tue Apr 17, 2007 7:48 am

Snell broke out last year, but kudos to forumers who 'predicted' one this year. Not only did he win 14 games last year, he basically Ked 1 guy per IP in the 2nd half. You can count the number of guys who did both of these things.

As for saying how lucky he was because his run support was high--that's taking the right stat but using it wrongly. If you want to know why he was 'lucky' to win 14, it probably had to do with his good pitching. In his 14 wins, he gave up these ER: 0 0 2 5 1 2 0 1 1 2 1 5 2 1.

In his 14 wins, he gave up more than 2 ER exactly 2 times--so he needed help from that 'lucky' Pirates offense twice. The statisics that get tossed out make it sound like he needed 5.18 runs per game to get a win. Not true. I am sure most 14+ game winners need more than 2 runs scored once in a while. In the 2 games that he gave up more then 2 ER, the Pirates scored 23 runs. If your team scores 11.5 runs for you, you are likely to get a little sloppy and give up a few extra baserunners/runs as you just try to get the game over with.

FWIW, he had another 4 games where he gave up 3 ER or less but didn't get a Win.

That being said, nobody should have paid for Snell to win 14 games again--wins in general is a luck business, especially in today's game. But you should pay for skills and his K rate alone, particularly in the 2nd half of 2006, make him a good buy. Whether he wins 10 or 16 is anyone's guess.
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