tianyi86 wrote:The pirates offense is not very good. Snell will get you the ks and nice ratio, but the wins will be between 10-15, which is nice. But if hes pitching for another club with better offense, he can get between 15-18 wins, which bumps him to elite status.
If you can get nice value for him, I advocate a sell high.
But then I'm biased bc I sold him for zambrano so I guess I have to back up my trades.
Given that Snell won 14 games last year in 32 starts with worse lineup protection (subjective), why would you predict his ceiling to be 1 more when he's shown to be pitching at an elevated level than last season in the early going?
Because he got lucky and won 14 games last season. His run support was 5.18, which places him at #1 in run support of any full time starting pitcher on the pirates last season. If you believe the pirates will again give him the highest run support for their SPs to him again, then you can argue he will be a 15-18 game winner. If he does become an 18 game winner, great. We just witnessed the rise of a young star who put up t5 SP numbers.
But check the following:
Snell won 4 games in which he gave up 5 runs or more, while Zach Duke won only 1.
Zambrano who was lights out last season and having a 5.97 run support, only won1 game in which he gave up 5 runs or more.
Carpenter had run support of 5.40, Oswalt at 5.22, both higher than Snells and I think we would all agree they are better pitchers as well. But these 2 were only 15 game winners. This just goes to show that Snells 14 wins has a pretty big factor of luck, especially after you factor in how much worse he was compared to those 2 last season. Mind you his era was 4.74.
I have a hard time believing that he will get the level of run support like he did last season. If his run support drops to somewhere of Zach Duke's from last season (duke ranked #3 in Run support for the Pirates starters) at 4.82, Snell probably would have been a 9 or 10 game winner last season.
Accounting for run support returns to normal and drop to around 5, rather than the high 4s (following your argument that the offense got better), Snell would be about a 10-12 game winner had he not improved this season. Counting on his improvement, I roughly added 3 wins to Snell's upper limit.
My estimates may be conservative, but I just have a hard time believing in the Pirates offense