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How much do you value pitching?

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Postby jake_harv88 » Thu Apr 12, 2007 5:39 pm

RAmst23 wrote:
josebach wrote:
dmendro wrote:Ok, I am going to go out on a limb here and say what you value is not important. It's what the league values.

If you go into the draft thinking pitching is more valuable, and you draft santana the first round, and then follow up with Oswalt or carpenter the second round, and no other pitchers have gone, you just missed out on the top 18 or so hitters in baseball.

You have to play your draft. You are playing to beat the other managers, not some invisible roto number's goal.

It's like poker, you beat the player, not the cards.


When does the league ever value something that you don't? Sure, the occasional person might punt a category, but generally speaking, doesn't everybody in the league have the same objective?

Sure, if you draft 11th in a 12 team league, you may modify your rankings slightly to accomodate for what the 12th team has already drafted, but overall this should have a very small impact on what your team looks like. If you're worrying about what your opponent is doing during the draft, you're worrying about the wrong thing. Besides, I don't know of any fantasy player worth his weight that would recommend taking three pitchers with their first three picks. :-?

Maybe I just missed your point.


I think you missed his point a little bit... He's saying you need to be flexible with your gameplan and adjust when adjustments are necessary. Though what I disagree with a little is your bit. I think it matters greatly what your opponents are doing. Sure you should have your own gameplan and methods. You say if you worry about your opponents, your worrying about the wrong thing. However, that's the whole basis of fantasy baseball. You're playing against other people and the stats their teams accumulate.

If your goal is to have alot of speed or saves, for example, other owners drafting these categories early affects your gameplan. It will cause you to adjust, either by drafting certain players earlier than you wanted to or altering plans altogether.

Anyway, I tend to lean towards better hitters when drafting. It's hard to predict wins and ERA with pitchers, which is 2 out of the 4 cats your evaluating. That's a rough percentage.


dmendro makes a great post here ;-D . Its more important to go into your draft with an open mind than to have a set game plan. Sure you can poor over thousands of ADP reports and trends but you never really know how your league is going to value a player. Yes most leagues generally are the same in terms of how they value certain categories. Saves and steals are great, same old story. But every league will overvalue some category or player no matter what. So the best strategy is to play what the draft gives you. Always go for the best value no matter what your game plan was.


I personally value hitting more than pitching because of the same old reasons. Pitching is volatile, and pitchers get hurt. But i'm not going to reach for a bat if there is a better pitcher on the board. I'll take what the draft gives me...

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Postby Chadgo5 » Thu Apr 12, 2007 7:41 pm

Great post dmendro. I agree. It is league dependent. Our league has 23 starting players. 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. Of our 9 pitchers, it is mandatory that 5 are starters and 4 are relievers.

So we have 14 hitters contributing to 6 categories and 5 pitchers that contribute to 5 of our 6 pitching categories (not counting saves, which only our relievers contribute to). Logically speaking, pitching is more important than hitting because there is more room for error with hitters. If one hitter struggles, you have 13 others to pick him up. If one of your starters struggles, you only have 4 others to pick him up. And it has been proven in the 14 years of our league that the team with the most dominant pitching wins the league every single year.

There are a lot of "good" starting pitchers available in the middle rounds. The problem is, everyone in our league knows this, so they wait until the middle rounds to grab their 2nd through 5th starters. What happens is all those "good" starters are spread out amongst every team. Meanwhile, I have already grabbed two or three aces (Oswalt, Peavy, Smoltz this year) and by the mid to late rounds I am picking from the "good" pitcher pool like everyone else... but I'm grabbing my 4th and 5th starters (Hamels, Chuck James this year.. with Maine, Garland and Byrd for my farm team). My staff should dominate the other staffs and be near the top in 5 of our 6 pitching categories.

I never bought into the argument that you can/should place less importance on pitching because it is volatile. I think the opposite is true. You should place MORE importance on pitching because it is volatile. Draft at least two of the top ten pitchers... and then draft two at the top of the next tier. The benefit of this is that you should have one of the top staffs regardless of injury or declining performance issues.. because you will have depth.

Once I get to our farm draft, I take more starting pitchers with my first two or three picks.

The other benefit of this is that teams are practically throwing good hitters at me to try to upgrade their pitching later in the season. If pitching is volatile, then it stands to reason that I could take a hot pitcher, say Chuck James for instance, and trade him for a needed stable bat. I can absorb the loss of James and upgrade my offense (which I will plan to do later this year).

Anyhow, that is my strategy for our league. I finish near the top almost every year using this philosophy.
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Postby TheOmen » Thu Apr 12, 2007 7:52 pm

I never take SP in the first 10 rounds. Never. I take power pitchers late...usually guys who are young and may break out (Rich Hill), or a guy coming off an injury or bad season. (Harden, King Felix) Or a solid SP changing leagues from AL to NL (Lilly) I have won my roto league 4 straight years with this same approach. So while balance is the key, I choose to achieve team balance late in the draft which allows me to have a high powered offense and a strikeout heavy staff.

Here are the three rotations I accumulated this season, with all taken after the tenth round:

King Felix King Felix King Felix
Harden Beckett Harden
Lilly Burnett Lilly
Hill Lilly Vasquez
Verlander Snell Bedard
Hill
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Postby Chadgo5 » Thu Apr 12, 2007 8:57 pm

hmmm. I'm guessing your league isn't that deep if you all of those pitchers are available after the 10th round.

Those pitchers in our league went (13 team league- 7 keepers each team):
King Felix (Keeper)
Beckett (Keeper)
Burnett (Keeper)
Verlander (Keeper)
Bedard - 8th round
Harden - 8th round
Hill - 11th round
Snell - 11th round
Vazquez - 12th round
Lilly - 24th round (farm draft)
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Postby mbuser » Thu Apr 12, 2007 10:51 pm

i definitely tend to value starters more than most and closers less than most. that is in part to the fact that your starters can make up for lackluster numbers from your closers much more than vice-versa. plus, you can trade SP later in the season if you snag one or two of the surprises off of the wire. i also tend to want to gamble on upside with position players more than with pitchers
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Postby josebach » Thu Apr 12, 2007 11:47 pm

RAmst23 wrote:
josebach wrote:
dmendro wrote:Ok, I am going to go out on a limb here and say what you value is not important. It's what the league values.

If you go into the draft thinking pitching is more valuable, and you draft santana the first round, and then follow up with Oswalt or carpenter the second round, and no other pitchers have gone, you just missed out on the top 18 or so hitters in baseball.

You have to play your draft. You are playing to beat the other managers, not some invisible roto number's goal.

It's like poker, you beat the player, not the cards.


When does the league ever value something that you don't? Sure, the occasional person might punt a category, but generally speaking, doesn't everybody in the league have the same objective?

Sure, if you draft 11th in a 12 team league, you may modify your rankings slightly to accomodate for what the 12th team has already drafted, but overall this should have a very small impact on what your team looks like. If you're worrying about what your opponent is doing during the draft, you're worrying about the wrong thing. Besides, I don't know of any fantasy player worth his weight that would recommend taking three pitchers with their first three picks. :-?

Maybe I just missed your point.


I think you missed his point a little bit... He's saying you need to be flexible with your gameplan and adjust when adjustments are necessary. Though what I disagree with a little is your bit. I think it matters greatly what your opponents are doing. Sure you should have your own gameplan and methods. You say if you worry about your opponents, your worrying about the wrong thing. However, that's the whole basis of fantasy baseball. You're playing against other people and the stats their teams accumulate.

If your goal is to have alot of speed or saves, for example, other owners drafting these categories early affects your gameplan. It will cause you to adjust, either by drafting certain players earlier than you wanted to or altering plans altogether.



My goal with a few exceptions is to maximize the value of each draft pick. Everything else is secondary... including what other league members are doing. If there's a rush on second basemen, so what. Let them go. DON'T fall into a position run just because that's what everybody else is doing. Just because everybody else is picking a catcher by round 8, doesn't mean I should. It sounds like dmendro is suggesting the opposite. I'm sorry, but if you need to look at the way the rest of the league is drafting in order to determine that taking pitchers with your first three picks is a bad idea, than you're a lousy fantasy player and will probably lose no matter what you do.
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Postby jazzmanljg » Fri Apr 13, 2007 12:21 am

To expand on the idea of basing the value of pitching on the league I'll just say it's easy to draft pitching late in most public leagues. I always draft a few free Yahoo leagues and you can tell in the first few rounds if the other owners know their stuff. If it seems like they are a bunch of newbs I won't draft a pitcher until rounds 8-10 and I'll still win pitching most weeks. However, my two serious keeper leagues are a different story. I know the owners know their stuff and if I wait too long I'll be screwed.
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Postby RAmst23 » Fri Apr 13, 2007 2:41 am

josebach wrote:
RAmst23 wrote:
josebach wrote:
dmendro wrote:Ok, I am going to go out on a limb here and say what you value is not important. It's what the league values.

If you go into the draft thinking pitching is more valuable, and you draft santana the first round, and then follow up with Oswalt or carpenter the second round, and no other pitchers have gone, you just missed out on the top 18 or so hitters in baseball.

You have to play your draft. You are playing to beat the other managers, not some invisible roto number's goal.

It's like poker, you beat the player, not the cards.


When does the league ever value something that you don't? Sure, the occasional person might punt a category, but generally speaking, doesn't everybody in the league have the same objective?

Sure, if you draft 11th in a 12 team league, you may modify your rankings slightly to accomodate for what the 12th team has already drafted, but overall this should have a very small impact on what your team looks like. If you're worrying about what your opponent is doing during the draft, you're worrying about the wrong thing. Besides, I don't know of any fantasy player worth his weight that would recommend taking three pitchers with their first three picks. :-?

Maybe I just missed your point.


I think you missed his point a little bit... He's saying you need to be flexible with your gameplan and adjust when adjustments are necessary. Though what I disagree with a little is your bit. I think it matters greatly what your opponents are doing. Sure you should have your own gameplan and methods. You say if you worry about your opponents, your worrying about the wrong thing. However, that's the whole basis of fantasy baseball. You're playing against other people and the stats their teams accumulate.

If your goal is to have alot of speed or saves, for example, other owners drafting these categories early affects your gameplan. It will cause you to adjust, either by drafting certain players earlier than you wanted to or altering plans altogether.



My goal with a few exceptions is to maximize the value of each draft pick. Everything else is secondary... including what other league members are doing. If there's a rush on second basemen, so what. Let them go. DON'T fall into a position run just because that's what everybody else is doing. Just because everybody else is picking a catcher by round 8, doesn't mean I should. It sounds like dmendro is suggesting the opposite. I'm sorry, but if you need to look at the way the rest of the league is drafting in order to determine that taking pitchers with your first three picks is a bad idea, than you're a lousy fantasy player and will probably lose no matter what you do.


I think you're being overly harsh and following this thread to narrowly. The general point is to be flexible with your gameplan. Of course the example you give, if you don't know that taking 3 pitcher sin the first 3 rounds is a bad idea makes you a bad fantasy player, is obvious. The poster did this to easily demonstrate a point.

The point of several posters in this thread, including the OP here, is to be flexible and be aware of what's going on in your draft. Do you disagree that flexability is a good idea? I know the original example was simple to make it obvious, but that does't make it wrong. I stick by my own point. If your gameplan is to dominate saves, for example, and everyone is drafting closers early, maybe you should change your plan. This would be an example when your opponents dictate the drafting strategy you laid out. That's not poor strategy in my opinion.
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Postby pokerplaya » Fri Apr 13, 2007 2:53 am

I also try to do the opposite of what the rest of the league is doing. If there is no discernible trend, then this point is moot, but if I see that the league is heavily drafting pitching, I'm going straight for the bats that are falling as they are sue to be great value. If it was all hitters and I saw Peavy available in round 5, you better believe I'm pouncing.
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Postby josebach » Fri Apr 13, 2007 8:31 am

RAmst23 wrote:
josebach wrote:
RAmst23 wrote:
josebach wrote:
dmendro wrote:Ok, I am going to go out on a limb here and say what you value is not important. It's what the league values.

If you go into the draft thinking pitching is more valuable, and you draft santana the first round, and then follow up with Oswalt or carpenter the second round, and no other pitchers have gone, you just missed out on the top 18 or so hitters in baseball.

You have to play your draft. You are playing to beat the other managers, not some invisible roto number's goal.

It's like poker, you beat the player, not the cards.


When does the league ever value something that you don't? Sure, the occasional person might punt a category, but generally speaking, doesn't everybody in the league have the same objective?

Sure, if you draft 11th in a 12 team league, you may modify your rankings slightly to accomodate for what the 12th team has already drafted, but overall this should have a very small impact on what your team looks like. If you're worrying about what your opponent is doing during the draft, you're worrying about the wrong thing. Besides, I don't know of any fantasy player worth his weight that would recommend taking three pitchers with their first three picks. :-?

Maybe I just missed your point.


I think you missed his point a little bit... He's saying you need to be flexible with your gameplan and adjust when adjustments are necessary. Though what I disagree with a little is your bit. I think it matters greatly what your opponents are doing. Sure you should have your own gameplan and methods. You say if you worry about your opponents, your worrying about the wrong thing. However, that's the whole basis of fantasy baseball. You're playing against other people and the stats their teams accumulate.

If your goal is to have alot of speed or saves, for example, other owners drafting these categories early affects your gameplan. It will cause you to adjust, either by drafting certain players earlier than you wanted to or altering plans altogether.



My goal with a few exceptions is to maximize the value of each draft pick. Everything else is secondary... including what other league members are doing. If there's a rush on second basemen, so what. Let them go. DON'T fall into a position run just because that's what everybody else is doing. Just because everybody else is picking a catcher by round 8, doesn't mean I should. It sounds like dmendro is suggesting the opposite. I'm sorry, but if you need to look at the way the rest of the league is drafting in order to determine that taking pitchers with your first three picks is a bad idea, than you're a lousy fantasy player and will probably lose no matter what you do.


I think you're being overly harsh and following this thread to narrowly. The general point is to be flexible with your gameplan. Of course the example you give, if you don't know that taking 3 pitcher sin the first 3 rounds is a bad idea makes you a bad fantasy player, is obvious. The poster did this to easily demonstrate a point.

The point of several posters in this thread, including the OP here, is to be flexible and be aware of what's going on in your draft. Do you disagree that flexability is a good idea? I know the original example was simple to make it obvious, but that does't make it wrong. I stick by my own point. If your gameplan is to dominate saves, for example, and everyone is drafting closers early, maybe you should change your plan. This would be an example when your opponents dictate the drafting strategy you laid out. That's not poor strategy in my opinion.


I completely agree you have to be flexible, but what you wrote and what he wrote seem like two different things. If he did mean what you said, why did he say he was "going out on a limb"? Being flexible and not overreaching for a player or category are pretty common practice, aren't they? Anyway, it seems like we agree on everything except how dmendro's post should be interpreted. :-)
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