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What is Ryan Zimmerman's value now?

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Postby great gretzky » Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:46 pm

Perhaps.

Though this Nats team looks like it very well could lose 120. They are awful. (And since I am in DC) and on all the time.
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Postby activechamp2006 » Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:03 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
stumpak wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:I think he'll be ok. He won't score 100 or knock in 120, but I think he'll still be a decent play. No matter how bad the team is, just about every #3 hitter at least approaches 90/90. I mean the Nats are not going to be shut out every game this year.

I still see him as a top 10 3B this year, and I'd rank him even higher in a keeper.


I don't follow your logic. If a team only scores 600 runs, there is no guarantee that the #3 hitter will get 90 RBIs. The Nats really can be this bad, and ust wait until they start unloading every last valauble part and Zimmerman - truely will have a AAA line-up around him after the trade deadline.


I've had this discussion before about Zimm so I'm stealing some of Amazinz's research (but you can find it on Retrosheet if you're so inclined).

These are the stats last year for players hitting in the #3 hole for all NL teams:

<pre>
Team AB R RBI
St. Louis 613 138 158
NY Mets 614 141 136
Houston 612 114 127
Colorado 622 117 121
LA Dodgers 652 109 117
Florida 633 115 116
Philadelphia 630 120 108
Cincinnati 662 94 107
Atlanta 643 113 106
Chicago Cubs 621 97 106
San Francisco 654 101 96
Milwaukee 632 86 93
Washington 644 95 93
Pittsburgh 645 95 92
Arizona 669 94 86
San Diego 624 83 78
</pre>


If Zimm stays the 3-hole (and I don't really see why he wouldn't), he's almost assuredly going to put up 80/80 and likely to approach 100/100, regardless of how bad the surrounding cast of characters is.


These statistics are refferring to any player on the team who hits out of the 3 hole. I can guarantee Zimm won't hit there every single game. Plus he is bound to miss atleast a few games with some sort of ailment. This in turn taking away from these numbers.
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Postby Guzman24 » Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:04 pm

He's a good hitter but just like most other good hitters he needs protection around him or he's not going to see any good pitches. Its going to be tough for him this year but that being said, I'm hanging onto him in my keeper league in hopes that the Nats do something to get him some help.

Someone has to score and drive in runs for them this year and I think Zim's the guy.

I see 90/90 and improvement next year on those numbers with a better lineup.
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Postby Big Pimpin » Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:17 pm

activechamp2006 wrote:These statistics are refferring to any player on the team who hits out of the 3 hole. I can guarantee Zimm won't hit there every single game. Plus he is bound to miss atleast a few games with some sort of ailment. This in turn taking away from these numbers.


Yes, they are the 3-hole stats for the whole year. But seriously, who on that team is going to challenge Zimm for that spot in the lineup? He's BY FAR the best overall hitter on the team.

And yeah, he'll likely sit out a few games, so maybe he'll only get 98% of the 3 spot stats. As if that makes a big difference. If he misses significant time for any reason, then all bets are off anyway.
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Postby stumpak » Thu Apr 12, 2007 2:18 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
stumpak wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:I think he'll be ok. He won't score 100 or knock in 120, but I think he'll still be a decent play. No matter how bad the team is, just about every #3 hitter at least approaches 90/90. I mean the Nats are not going to be shut out every game this year.

I still see him as a top 10 3B this year, and I'd rank him even higher in a keeper.


I don't follow your logic. If a team only scores 600 runs, there is no guarantee that the #3 hitter will get 90 RBIs. The Nats really can be this bad, and ust wait until they start unloading every last valauble part and Zimmerman - truely will have a AAA line-up around him after the trade deadline.


I've had this discussion before about Zimm so I'm stealing some of Amazinz's research (but you can find it on Retrosheet if you're so inclined).

These are the stats last year for players hitting in the #3 hole for all NL teams:

<pre>
Team AB R RBI
St. Louis 613 138 158
NY Mets 614 141 136
Houston 612 114 127
Colorado 622 117 121
LA Dodgers 652 109 117
Florida 633 115 116
Philadelphia 630 120 108
Cincinnati 662 94 107
Atlanta 643 113 106
Chicago Cubs 621 97 106
San Francisco 654 101 96
Milwaukee 632 86 93
Washington 644 95 93
Pittsburgh 645 95 92
Arizona 669 94 86
San Diego 624 83 78
</pre>


If Zimm stays the 3-hole (and I don't really see why he wouldn't), he's almost assuredly going to put up 80/80 and likely to approach 100/100, regardless of how bad the surrounding cast of characters is.


To me the Padres number is most telling since the Nats will be lucky to score the 624 that the Padres did last year. Take the 83/78, discount by 10% for minor injuries, rest on a double header day, times he gets pulled early in blow-outs, etc and that is 75/70, which is not very good.

Marry this with .300/20/5, and this pretty mediocre total value for a 3B. This is nothing against Zimmerman, I like him as a player, I just don't see how he could have been rated so hihgly given the line-up he was in and Acta's known inclination not to run.
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Postby tuff_gong » Thu Apr 12, 2007 2:20 pm

I'm trying real hard to get him in my keeper league right now.
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Well that's just like, your opinion man.
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Postby dmendro » Thu Apr 12, 2007 2:22 pm

They need to pull Castro from the 2 spot and move Ryan church there. Then Zimmerman will see some pitches. When johnson comes back in June or July, He'll get more support.
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Postby Geek » Thu Apr 12, 2007 2:23 pm

tuff_gong wrote:I'm trying real hard to get him in my keeper league right now.


He does have keeper value.

For 2007, though, he's a bench player.
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Postby great gretzky » Thu Apr 12, 2007 2:26 pm

yea, I don't think it's any reflection on Zim, but the team is just not that good. He's certainly playable (as is cordero), but they are putrid. Actually, I kind of hope they stay that way, so I can cheap tickets to see the phils.
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Postby Amazinz » Thu Apr 12, 2007 3:04 pm

There's only been one team in the last decade to score 600 or less runs (2003 Dodgers). Not saying the Nats can't do it (hey I'm rooting for them to bust the Mets loss record) but it's not an easy achievement. WAS scored ~750 last year, ~640 the year before. :)
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