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juan pierre stealing bases

Postby sadlyajetsfan » Mon Apr 09, 2007 1:52 pm

will this continue once furcal comes back? pierre always seems to get 50 but im not sure this year
10 team,H2H,5x5
C-Montero
1B-A.Gonzalez
2B-Utley
3B-Longoria
SS-Reyes
1B/3B-Morneau
2b/SS-K.Jonhson
OF-J.Upton,CarGo,Pierre
UTL-Rasmus
P-Hamels,Nolasco,W.Rodriguez,Garza,Wagner,Aardsma
BN-Span,Slowey,Liriano,E.Santana,Gregg, Pelfrey, Street
DL-B. Anderson
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Postby This is the year » Mon Apr 09, 2007 2:05 pm

Yes. Colletti went out and got him for his contact hitting and speed skills, as well as his durability. Though we as fans know that stealing bases doesn't do very much, they're going to run him as much as possible because they perceive it as helping the club. He'll get 40 at least, and probably closer to 50.
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Postby tianyi86 » Mon Apr 09, 2007 2:09 pm

This is the year wrote:Yes. Colletti went out and got him for his contact hitting and speed skills, as well as his durability. Though we as fans know that stealing bases doesn't do very much, they're going to run him as much as possible because they perceive it as helping the club. He'll get 40 at least, and probably closer to 50.


Im confused about how stealing bases doesn't help the team very much. The difference between a player on 1st and 2nd is huge because a well hit ball can score a player from 2nd base while it would take 2 hits to score a player from first. This is especially true for NL teams where teams play more smallball, and even more true for the Dodgers because they dont have the power lineup of the mets or phillies to drive in runs by the bunches.
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Mon Apr 09, 2007 2:16 pm

tianyi86 wrote:
This is the year wrote:Yes. Colletti went out and got him for his contact hitting and speed skills, as well as his durability. Though we as fans know that stealing bases doesn't do very much, they're going to run him as much as possible because they perceive it as helping the club. He'll get 40 at least, and probably closer to 50.


Im confused about how stealing bases doesn't help the team very much. The difference between a player on 1st and 2nd is huge because a well hit ball can score a player from 2nd base while it would take 2 hits to score a player from first. This is especially true for NL teams where teams play more smallball, and even more true for the Dodgers because they dont have the power lineup of the mets or phillies to drive in runs by the bunches.


A runner must be successful something like 75% of the time to be an effective base stealer. Juan Pierre is successful about 75% of the time on his career so I'd expect even the A's to run him.
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Postby number9 » Mon Apr 09, 2007 2:19 pm

Stealing bases efficiently is valuable (a la Ichiro), but just racking up big SB numbers while getting caught stealing too often like Pierre doesn't help the club. You need to be successful at least 70-80% of the time for the SB attempt to have positive effect on your team's scoring chances, Pierre's just above even at best.
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Mon Apr 09, 2007 2:58 pm

number9 wrote:Stealing bases efficiently is valuable (a la Ichiro), but just racking up big SB numbers while getting caught stealing too often like Pierre doesn't help the club. You need to be successful at least 70-80% of the time for the SB attempt to have positive effect on your team's scoring chances, Pierre's just above even at best.


I don't know about just above even. At some point you have to consider errors caused because of threating and stealing runners and the effect on pitchers. Being sent in hit and run plays also creates more runs which aren't accounted for.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Apr 09, 2007 5:19 pm

Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:
number9 wrote:Stealing bases efficiently is valuable (a la Ichiro), but just racking up big SB numbers while getting caught stealing too often like Pierre doesn't help the club. You need to be successful at least 70-80% of the time for the SB attempt to have positive effect on your team's scoring chances, Pierre's just above even at best.


I don't know about just above even. At some point you have to consider errors caused because of threating and stealing runners and the effect on pitchers. Being sent in hit and run plays also creates more runs which aren't accounted for.


BTDT.

These issue has been looked at and the number of errors caused is worth less than 1 win per year, about 7-10 runs, maximum. One of the neatest studies of this was done by Tom Tippett at DiamondMindBaseball.

The effect on pitchers has been looked extensively, and what many baseball fans do not see is that the effect on hitters is even greater. In fact, when a runner is in motion, BA, OBP, and SLG ALL decline, most probably because the motion of the runner disturbs the batter's concentration or vision and/or the hitter slaps at balls to protect the runner. So, on net, it appears that a runner like Pierre REDUCES offense by disturbing the hitter more than he does the pitcher.

Because most fans don't think through all these competing effects, they don't understand the true value of SBs...but, it's very small.
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Postby godallahstar » Mon Apr 09, 2007 5:28 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
The effect on pitchers has been looked extensively, and what many baseball fans do not see is that the effect on hitters is even greater. In fact, when a runner is in motion, BA, OBP, and SLG ALL decline, most probably because the motion of the runner disturbs the batter's concentration or vision and/or the hitter slaps at balls to protect the runner. So, on net, it appears that a runner like Pierre REDUCES offense by disturbing the hitter more than he does the pitcher.

Because most fans don't think through all these competing effects, they don't understand the true value of SBs...but, it's very small.


that seems like an awfully skewed stat, if you ask me.

you realize that a lot of the time, when crawford or reyes types are leading off, there is a very specific reasoning behind lo duca or someone like zobrist hitting 2nd, right?
to take pitches, work the count.

sometimes stats invite themselves into places they don't belong.
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Mon Apr 09, 2007 5:29 pm

Very interesting. I wonder if this effect is more or less relative to arm slot of pitcher and handedness of both pitcher and batter.

Anyway you cut it, it seems like the teams that win most of the time are in the middle of the pack in SBs.
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Postby sadlyajetsfan » Mon Apr 09, 2007 5:40 pm

thanks for the help. i have been targeting pierre in a trade but was second thinking it with furcals return, i will continue to go after him ;-D
10 team,H2H,5x5
C-Montero
1B-A.Gonzalez
2B-Utley
3B-Longoria
SS-Reyes
1B/3B-Morneau
2b/SS-K.Jonhson
OF-J.Upton,CarGo,Pierre
UTL-Rasmus
P-Hamels,Nolasco,W.Rodriguez,Garza,Wagner,Aardsma
BN-Span,Slowey,Liriano,E.Santana,Gregg, Pelfrey, Street
DL-B. Anderson
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