Contract year upswing idea: should decline due to...

[swarmee]

Does anyone have any numbers on contract year performance?

Looks like someone already found an article about it, but here's the names that CBS Sportsline published before 2003:

Among the top prospective free agents following the 2003 season: Roberto Alomar, Pedro Astacio, Rich Aurilia, Armando Benitez, Craig Biggio, Luis Castillo, Bartolo Colon, Jose Cruz Jr., Kelvim Escobar, Keith Foulke, Danny Graves, Eddie Guardado, Vladimir Guerrero, Livan Hernandez, Randy Johnson, Javy Lopez , Kevin Millwood, Andy Pettitte, Sidney Ponson, Kirk Rueter, Shannon Stewart, Scott Sullivan, Miguel Tejada, Fernando Vina and Mike Williams.

Looks like Escobar, Foulke, Guardado, Javy Lopez, and Ponson had better than expected years out of the group. Johnson, Rueter, and Guerrero lost time to injuries and suffered in their stats. Otherwise, most of the others did as they were expected or less (Mike Williams, Aurilia).

[Pogotheostrich]

I think it really depends on the player. Does the player normally give it 100% or is he a lollygagger. Drew is a lollygagger but if he gets hurt this much when he isn't trying imagine how fast he would injury himself if he put forth an effort.

I look for Pedro to come up big in his contract year. Prove to Boston he is the pitcher he need and will be more likely to pitch with some discomfort.

[mikcou]

I think it really depends on the player. Does the player normally give it 100% or is he a lollygagger. Drew is a lollygagger but if he gets hurt this much when he isn't trying imagine how fast he would injury himself if he put forth an effort.

I look for Pedro to come up big in his contract year. Prove to Boston he is the pitcher he need and will be more likely to pitch with some discomfort.

Personally I dont think that Pedro is going to want a huge deal and seems to be enjoying himself here so my prediction is he would stay...

[Grenade Teeth]

I think it really depends on the player. Does the player normally give it 100% or is he a lollygagger. Drew is a lollygagger but if he gets hurt this much when he isn't trying imagine how fast he would injury himself if he put forth an effort.

I look for Pedro to come up big in his contract year. Prove to Boston he is the pitcher he need and will be more likely to pitch with some discomfort.

Personally I dont think that Pedro is going to want a huge deal and seems to be enjoying himself here so my prediction is he would stay...

That is what they all say... There are very few home discounts. Sure he may take $1 or $2 less to stay in Boston, but that's still $15-$20 mil (huge contract IMO)

[mikcou]

I think it really depends on the player. Does the player normally give it 100% or is he a lollygagger. Drew is a lollygagger but if he gets hurt this much when he isn't trying imagine how fast he would injury himself if he put forth an effort.

I look for Pedro to come up big in his contract year. Prove to Boston he is the pitcher he need and will be more likely to pitch with some discomfort.

Personally I dont think that Pedro is going to want a huge deal and seems to be enjoying himself here so my prediction is he would stay...

That is what they all say... There are very few home discounts. Sure he may take $1 or $2 less to stay in Boston, but that's still $15-$20 mil (huge contract IMO)

I dont think that any team would give him that kind of money. Especially with the question with his health