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Postby whoseyourdaddy12 » Tue Apr 10, 2007 9:57 pm

I think ordinarygenius was talking about grabbing players when they are hot, not before. anyways, your probably right and im probably wrong. :-b
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Postby ChipperJonesFanatic » Tue Apr 10, 2007 10:02 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Trying to "time" the market is about as effective as trying to guess which players will be hot next week. You'll be right sometimes, but as a strategy, it sucks big time.


Sometimes, you know if a player is going to go on a streak just by the matchups and such.
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Postby bigh0rt » Tue Apr 10, 2007 10:03 pm

ChipperJonesFanatic wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Trying to "time" the market is about as effective as trying to guess which players will be hot next week. You'll be right sometimes, but as a strategy, it sucks big time.


Sometimes, you know if a player is going to go on a streak just by the matchups and such.


No you don't. You can try and predict it, but even then, the projection you're making isn't nearly as accurate as projecting market (or in this case, full season) numbers. I'm with GTWMA here.
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Postby whoseyourdaddy12 » Tue Apr 10, 2007 10:06 pm

ChipperJonesFanatic wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Trying to "time" the market is about as effective as trying to guess which players will be hot next week. You'll be right sometimes, but as a strategy, it sucks big time.


Sometimes, you know if a player is going to go on a streak just by the matchups and such.


Ok, name 5 players who you think will explode next week (week 3). players you can get via free agency... and we'll see how it goes ;-)
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Postby ChipperJonesFanatic » Tue Apr 10, 2007 10:19 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
ChipperJonesFanatic wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Trying to "time" the market is about as effective as trying to guess which players will be hot next week. You'll be right sometimes, but as a strategy, it sucks big time.


Sometimes, you know if a player is going to go on a streak just by the matchups and such.


No you don't. You can try and predict it, but even then, the projection you're making isn't nearly as accurate as projecting market (or in this case, full season) numbers. I'm with GTWMA here.


I am for the most part with GTWMA too. I am just saying, if you have a guy 12-15 with 7 HRs against a particular pitcher, and you have Jacque Freakin' Jones on your roster, I would say it would be pretty safe to drop Jacque for him.

With that being said, I won't drop anybody in my top 20 rounds before May.
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Postby whoseyourdaddy12 » Tue Apr 10, 2007 10:22 pm

ChipperJonesFanatic wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
ChipperJonesFanatic wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Trying to "time" the market is about as effective as trying to guess which players will be hot next week. You'll be right sometimes, but as a strategy, it sucks big time.


Sometimes, you know if a player is going to go on a streak just by the matchups and such.


No you don't. You can try and predict it, but even then, the projection you're making isn't nearly as accurate as projecting market (or in this case, full season) numbers. I'm with GTWMA here.


I am for the most part with GTWMA too. I am just saying, if you have a guy 12-15 with 7 HRs against a particular pitcher, and you have Jacque Freakin' Jones on your roster, I would say it would be pretty safe to drop Jacque for him.

With that being said, I won't drop anybody in my top 20 rounds before May.


Yes, but its also very easy for that player to 0-4 or 1-4 with little/no production
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Postby AcidRock23 » Tue Apr 10, 2007 11:06 pm

whoseyourdaddy12 wrote:
ChipperJonesFanatic wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Trying to "time" the market is about as effective as trying to guess which players will be hot next week. You'll be right sometimes, but as a strategy, it sucks big time.


Sometimes, you know if a player is going to go on a streak just by the matchups and such.


Ok, name 5 players who you think will explode next week (week 3). players you can get via free agency... and we'll see how it goes ;-)


I will let you know which guys I'm benching...'I've got to bench Alex Gordon and see what's on the WW, oh, Eric Chavez is batting > .300, I'll just grab him' and *bam*, Gordon goes yard...argh...
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Postby ChipperJonesFanatic » Wed Apr 11, 2007 12:20 am

whoseyourdaddy12 wrote:
ChipperJonesFanatic wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
ChipperJonesFanatic wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Trying to "time" the market is about as effective as trying to guess which players will be hot next week. You'll be right sometimes, but as a strategy, it sucks big time.


Sometimes, you know if a player is going to go on a streak just by the matchups and such.


No you don't. You can try and predict it, but even then, the projection you're making isn't nearly as accurate as projecting market (or in this case, full season) numbers. I'm with GTWMA here.


I am for the most part with GTWMA too. I am just saying, if you have a guy 12-15 with 7 HRs against a particular pitcher, and you have Jacque Freakin' Jones on your roster, I would say it would be pretty safe to drop Jacque for him.

With that being said, I won't drop anybody in my top 20 rounds before May.


Yes, but its also very easy for that player to 0-4 or 1-4 with little/no production


I'll take that risk any day. Like I said, I won't drop anybody I took before round 20 before May, so it isn't like I am dropping a good player (for the most part).
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Apr 11, 2007 6:52 am

whoseyourdaddy12 wrote:I think ordinarygenius was talking about grabbing players when they are hot, not before. anyways, your probably right and im probably wrong. :-b


The problem is that you don't know they are going to stay hot! Streaks are inherently unpredictable.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Apr 11, 2007 6:58 am

ChipperJonesFanatic wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Trying to "time" the market is about as effective as trying to guess which players will be hot next week. You'll be right sometimes, but as a strategy, it sucks big time.


Sometimes, you know if a player is going to go on a streak just by the matchups and such.


There are three different things here.

One is simply picking up guys who "are hot" or you think will be hot very soon. That's what I was addressing before, and I'd argue it's pretty close to impossible to time that and win.

Second is playing "matchups" in the sense of focusing your use of players where they will be most successful. That would include impacts of park, platoon advantages, taking advantage of sitting pitchers against good hitting teams, etc. That, I would argue, when supported by good evidence, is a great strategy and works well.

Third is playing specific Player-player matchups, as in so and so is 12 for 15 versus pitcher x, I'm going to pick him up. In most cases, these numbers are based on far too small a sample to be reliable and offer no ability to make good selections. In this case, I'd argue you lose as often as you win, and there's no advantage to doing this as a strategy.
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