Well, this probably belongs in the prediction forum.
He is a fly-ball pitcher in a hitter's park, so that doesn't bode well. He also walks far too many batters. There is no way that he keeps his ERA under 4 IMO.
I remember reading a quote about himself after his final spring training game. This is verbatum but he said, it's just my job to try and keep us in the game.....I'm not going to throw a no-hitter. etc.etc. So the belief for him and the team is that he isn't going to go out and be their ace, but they want him to be serviceable.
He was bad in his last outing, and was only helped by some bizarre error situation in the first inning. I think he walked 5 guys in 5 innings, which means he is picking up where he left off last year.
I have him in one of my deep leagues, but he should be used as a spot starter in leagues w/ 12 or fewer teams.
This guy is one of the most erratic pitchers out there, and there's no rhyme or reason to his inconsistency. If you're playing roto, feel free to gamble on him if you have some other low-WHIP pitcher. He might help you out a little. If you're playing H2H, he'll cost you more weeks than he'll win for you. Let someone else play those odds.
Picked him up for two starts this week. A couple of swing and miss teams coming to 'Zona this week, so I figured I will take the chance. I am not expecting him to drive down my ratios, but some k's and hopefully a couple of wins would be nice.
He should get some Ws and some decent Ks, but I wouldn't count on him being even average in the ratio categories. His K-rate fell a bit last year while his walks increased, and the move to the hitters park won't help.
Could be a decent back-of-the-rotation type, but baring a significant improvement, I don't see him as any more than that.
If you want a guy to gamble on, look at Kyle Davies. If they keep him up once Cormier (whom I also like ), he could put up fantasy-worthy numbers; his line against the Mets was really good.
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I see his 3.39 ERA (1.31 WHIP) in 2004 and 3.84 ERA (1.30 WHIP) in 2005, in his first two seasons to pitch over 200 innings and wonder if he didn't have dead arm last year. In those two years he also had a 7.8 K/9 and a 2.2 K/BB in over 430 innings, but then had a 4.91 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 and 1.6 K/BB last year.
Seems like that sudden loss of control could be a dead arm. I don't give him a pass on last year and he's certainly in a worse park, but if he gets back on track he could give you 180+ Ks and a high 3 ERA.
benjapage wrote:i just want someone to explain to me how that horridly awkward leg kick could be remotely incremental to his pitching prowess.
it is just fugly.
"here, i'll just sort of slowly lift my leg as if i were a dog peeing on a hydrant...and i'll teeter forward until my body weight forces me to put my leg down."
yucky. maybe there's a method to it?
if he had better control, he'd be dominant.
Doug gave the Brewers two real good seasons out of three, and at the very least was a horse who stayed healthy (unlike many of our other SP). I'm glad we had him, and he was another bargain basement find for Melvin.
However, I am thrilled to not have to watch that guy pitch anymore. I have to imagine that slow, awkward windup contributes to his control problems. He worked so slowly, nibbled, threw so many balls, and walked so many guys that his games just crawled along. He was the polar opposite of Ben "let's see if I can get this game under 2 hours" Sheets (opening day was 2 hours, 10 min, so close).