The Nats were dead last in ST in number of steals attempted.
Yes and Lopez stole 21 bases in 274 at bats.
UNDER FRANK ROBINSON.
FRANK IS GONE.
Through the first week of play, the Nats are dead last in MLB in number of steals attempted, one of only two teams that attempted ZERO steals the entire first week.
hot4tx wrote:Again, if you look at the list of 40+ base stealers that had 1 or zero SBs in week one, you'd see that Lopez stealing zero bases in one week means little to nothing. It was one week.
Here's the list of players who had 40+ SBs last year, are not injured this year, and finished the first week with 0 stolen base attempts.
And Ichiro only played 3 games because of the weather.
In fact, only one other player with 35+ stolen bases had zero attempts, Brian Roberts.
Yes, it was one week. But, I'm not basing my assessment on that alone. In addition, his manager says he does not like to use the steal. In addition, his manager attempted almost no steals in Spring Training. In addition, his manager had no players at all attempt any steals in the first week of the season.
hot4tx wrote:We are basing predictions that he'll steal bases on the fact that he's only done it for one year. But 2005 was the first year for him to be a regular starter. He was 24 years old and had a 65% success rate. Last year (in his second year as a full-timer) he had a 79% success rate and seemed to figure it out, get his timing, whatever. So it's not like he's had a long career and all of a sudden at 35 stole a ton of bases. Last year is basically all we have to go on.
No, it isn't. If a guy hits 20 HRs last year, do his statistics from the prior 3 years become meaningless? In looking at players, last year is not the only thing that matters.
Furthermore, we know other things. We know that last year he played on two teams with managers who have perenially been among the top 5 in attempted steals. We know that this year, he is on a team with a manager that does not value the steal. We know how that manager has behaved in his first 3 months managing.
hot4tx wrote:We're all ok with saying we think Ryan Howard will hit a bunch of HRs based on one year. We're all ok with saying Pappelbon will get us some saves based on one year.
One of these things is not like the other. Three weeks ago, no one was saying Papelbon was going to get you saves. Why? Because, like steals and unlike HRs, saves are heavily influenced by managerial decisions.
In addition, how many people are predicting that Howard will again hit nearly 60 HRs? Or are most people expecting say 45-55? Why? Because most prediction models reflect what happens in reality, what's known as regression to the mean. If you see a guy who suddenly exceeds career norms, it is likely that a lot of things just went right that year. And next year, some of those things will not go as right and performance will slip a bit.
hot4tx wrote:You can have your opinion, and you may end up being right. But if you say that you are right and you know that he WON'T get 40 SBs for sure that's silly. I think the probability is high that he gets 40 or at least 35 SBs. Again, I may be right, I may be wrong - we won't know until September.
And yes, I've seen manager after manager change their "system" to try to make things work.
No one is saying they are right. I'm just pointing out that while there is no need to panic, there are serious concerns that fantasy players ought to pay attention to for why Lopez may very wellbe less valuable. You have chosen to ignore the facts I've presented on HRs. And, largely, chosen to ignore the facts I've presented on SBs.
Your argument hinges critically on the assumption that Acta completely rejects his position under pressure.
Most people are predicting the Nats lose 100-120 games this year. There are NO expectations on Acta at all this year. So, I see absolutely no reason why he makes any adjustment to a position that seems very strongly held AND is supported by a humongous mountain of evidence.