Felipe Lopez - Panic Time?

[cordscords]

GTWMA- We know what Acta believes, but once he sees the offense needs some kind of dimension to it, and the fans and media start crying for some change, Acta will start to give Lopez the green light.

Perhaps not all the time, but more. And I think Lopez will do well when given the chance to steal, resulting in more chances opening up.

I still think he grabs 30-35.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

The Nats were dead last in ST in number of steals attempted.

Yes and Lopez stole 21 bases in 274 at bats.

UNDER FRANK ROBINSON.
FRANK IS GONE.

Through the first week of play, the Nats are dead last in MLB in number of steals attempted, one of only two teams that attempted ZERO steals the entire first week.

Again, if you look at the list of 40+ base stealers that had 1 or zero SBs in week one, you'd see that Lopez stealing zero bases in one week means little to nothing. It was one week.

Here's the list of players who had 40+ SBs last year, are not injured this year, and finished the first week with 0 stolen base attempts.

Lopez.
Ichiro.

And Ichiro only played 3 games because of the weather.

In fact, only one other player with 35+ stolen bases had zero attempts, Brian Roberts.

Yes, it was one week. But, I'm not basing my assessment on that alone. In addition, his manager says he does not like to use the steal. In addition, his manager attempted almost no steals in Spring Training. In addition, his manager had no players at all attempt any steals in the first week of the season.

We are basing predictions that he'll steal bases on the fact that he's only done it for one year. But 2005 was the first year for him to be a regular starter. He was 24 years old and had a 65% success rate. Last year (in his second year as a full-timer) he had a 79% success rate and seemed to figure it out, get his timing, whatever. So it's not like he's had a long career and all of a sudden at 35 stole a ton of bases. Last year is basically all we have to go on.

No, it isn't. If a guy hits 20 HRs last year, do his statistics from the prior 3 years become meaningless? In looking at players, last year is not the only thing that matters.

Furthermore, we know other things. We know that last year he played on two teams with managers who have perenially been among the top 5 in attempted steals. We know that this year, he is on a team with a manager that does not value the steal. We know how that manager has behaved in his first 3 months managing.

We're all ok with saying we think Ryan Howard will hit a bunch of HRs based on one year. We're all ok with saying Pappelbon will get us some saves based on one year.

One of these things is not like the other. Three weeks ago, no one was saying Papelbon was going to get you saves. Why? Because, like steals and unlike HRs, saves are heavily influenced by managerial decisions.

In addition, how many people are predicting that Howard will again hit nearly 60 HRs? Or are most people expecting say 45-55? Why? Because most prediction models reflect what happens in reality, what's known as regression to the mean. If you see a guy who suddenly exceeds career norms, it is likely that a lot of things just went right that year. And next year, some of those things will not go as right and performance will slip a bit.

You can have your opinion, and you may end up being right. But if you say that you are right and you know that he WON'T get 40 SBs for sure that's silly. I think the probability is high that he gets 40 or at least 35 SBs. Again, I may be right, I may be wrong - we won't know until September.

And yes, I've seen manager after manager change their "system" to try to make things work.

No one is saying they are right. I'm just pointing out that while there is no need to panic, there are serious concerns that fantasy players ought to pay attention to for why Lopez may very wellbe less valuable. You have chosen to ignore the facts I've presented on HRs. And, largely, chosen to ignore the facts I've presented on SBs.

Your argument hinges critically on the assumption that Acta completely rejects his position under pressure.

WHAT PRESSURE?

Most people are predicting the Nats lose 100-120 games this year. There are NO expectations on Acta at all this year. So, I see absolutely no reason why he makes any adjustment to a position that seems very strongly held AND is supported by a humongous mountain of evidence.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

GTWMA- We know what Acta believes, but once he sees the offense needs some kind of dimension to it, and the fans and media start crying for some change, Acta will start to give Lopez the green light.

Perhaps not all the time, but more. And I think Lopez will do well when given the chance to steal, resulting in more chances opening up.

I still think he grabs 30-35.

Why? Short of losing more than 140 games, what pressure is there on Acta? No one expects the Nats to do squat this year, so I see no reason why he would not stick to his game plan, one that he clearly has given a lot of thought and which is well supported by the evidence.

[hot4tx]

I don't disagree with that, but I guess what I am trying to say is that up until the end of May my assessment of whether a move or trade will help me is more based upon my pre-season projections than upon what is actually happening this year. And, assuming that I've assembled the team I think can win, I'm unlikely to make a big move prior to that time unless:
a. I get a really obvious offer that addresses a weakness I knew about prior to the season even starting
b. I have to address a major injury that has occurred.

Short of that, I think there's a lot more danger in pulling the trigger too early and over-reacting to a few weeks information than in waiting a bit to get more information on the quality of your team and your strengths and weaknesses so that you can make the best move.

I knew I'd seen you arguing against rushing to a decision just the other day. My point is the same as yours was in this other thread... those people that had Lopez down for 40 SBs shouldn't panic after 1 week. You seem to agree with that in all cases but this one, where you are 100% sure from 1 week of games and from some media quote that Lopez won't steal 30 bags. Doesn't make sense to me. That is all.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

I don't disagree with that, but I guess what I am trying to say is that up until the end of May my assessment of whether a move or trade will help me is more based upon my pre-season projections than upon what is actually happening this year. And, assuming that I've assembled the team I think can win, I'm unlikely to make a big move prior to that time unless:
a. I get a really obvious offer that addresses a weakness I knew about prior to the season even starting
b. I have to address a major injury that has occurred.

Short of that, I think there's a lot more danger in pulling the trigger too early and over-reacting to a few weeks information than in waiting a bit to get more information on the quality of your team and your strengths and weaknesses so that you can make the best move.

I knew I'd seen you arguing against rushing to a decision just the other day. My point is the same as yours was in this other thread... those people that had Lopez down for 40 SBs shouldn't panic after 1 week. You seem to agree with that in all cases but this one, where you are 100% sure from 1 week of games and from some media quote that Lopez won't steal 30 bags. Doesn't make sense to me. That is all.

That's because I already begun downgrading Lopez last September, after watching his HRs decline.

I further downgraded him in January/February when I saw Acta commenting on his management philosophy contrasted with FRobby.

I further downgraded Lopez in March, when it was clear how little Acta planned to run through his Spring training games.

So, the reason why I'm saying not to panic, is because I think anybody who paid attention to what has happened in DC since last August, as I did, should already have recognized that Lopez is not a top 75 player. His rank is more like 140-180. That's where I had him ranked going into the season. I expected no more than 25 SBs in my projections.

I think people who had Lopez ranked top 75 and expected 15 HRs and 40 SBs should recognize that those expectations were not good ones. It ignored a LOT of evidence, and was based on a failure to recognize the impact of RFK on his power and an overly optimistic assessment of both his own base stealing abilities and the Nats offensive plan. They should have been revised as mine were.

My assessment of the situation has little to do with one week of games or rush to judgment. It has a lot to do adjusting to information over time. My value adjustment is based on a half season of data on Lopez performance in RFK and 3 months of listening to and watching how Acta manages. It's also based on a few years of Lopez's performance prior to 2006.

And, again, I'm not suggesting people rush to dump Lopez. Rather, I think they ought to re-assess his value. Before his trade to the Nats, it would have taken a top 50 player to pry him away from me. Now, if I got an offer from someone that was a player valued in the top 75 for him, I'd jump on it. If I was offered a player in the 75-125 range, I'd seriously consider it.

Effectively, Lopez is a .275 hitter who is likely to hit fewer than 10 HRs, on a lousy offensive team, so his R and RBIs aren't that great. He might steal 40 SBs (but I doubt it).

[Drunken Rhino]

I would also add to GTWMA's arguement that most of his perceived value at the beginning of the year was that he would get his 2B elig in 5 games. Even in the lower end of his projections - 10-15 HR and 20SB are great #'s to have from your 2B this year, but not good numbers to have out of your SS. But, with Guzman getting hurt, Lopez going back to 2nd and Belliard stepping in at 2B, I don't see him going back to 2B at all this year b/c I think Belliard is a better offensive player than Guzman. So count me in the group that is not panicking, but am most definitely concerned.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

Felipe update

Nats on pace for attempting 76 SBs as a team

Felipe on pace for 27 SBs; he has 0 HR, and just 6 XBH< with a slugging percentage of .323

[sooner711]

I think Acta is crazy myself. The only way you can win when you have less talent is small ball and defense, imho.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

I think Acta is crazy myself. The only way you can win when you have less talent is small ball and defense, imho.

No, the only way you can win when you have less talent is to get more talent. Small ball actually reduces your chances to win even more. Defense is just another form of talent. Get better hitters, pitchers, and defenders and you win more. Bunting doesn't make lousy talent good enough to win.

[MotorCityKitties]

Lopez played 2nd base today, so that's slightly encouraging.