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Felipe Lopez - Panic Time?

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Postby thehotcorner » Tue Apr 10, 2007 1:24 am

gws226 wrote:errrr... he did manage to steal 21 bases last year in 71 with the nats.

I know that its hard to imagine a more pathetic offense then the 2007 version, but I dont recall the 2006 version being much better


main issue is manager change. acta wasn't there in 2006.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Apr 10, 2007 6:55 am

gws226 wrote:errrr... he did manage to steal 21 bases last year in 71 with the nats.

I know that its hard to imagine a more pathetic offense then the 2007 version, but I dont recall the 2006 version being much better


As someone pointed out, the manager last year was NOT Manny Acta. It was aggressive SB manager Frank Robinson.

Here's what Acta said before the season:

Stealing: "We will run selectively. I think one of the things that doomed this club last year is that they were first in caught stealing. I am not going to be running all over the place just because 25,000 people in the stands are saying I am aggressive while people are getting thrown out on the bases. Not everybody will have a green light here. The guys who are going to run are the guys who are going to prove to me that they will be successful most of the time trying to steal a base."

http://www.washingtontimes.com/sports/2 ... -3574r.htm

So, as I said in February and March, Felipe ain't going to steal 40 bases. And, it appears he can't hit HRs in RFK.

So, don't panic...but he isn't a 15 HR 40 SB guy.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Apr 10, 2007 7:36 am

This guy is getting me frustrated.

Who do you expect to finish with more steals this year...Lopez or Brandon Phillips? I'm really wondering if he's even worth holding onto.
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Postby hot4tx » Tue Apr 10, 2007 9:21 am

Even if Acta is not an aggressive baserunning manager, Lopez will run. If the Nats start out playing "his way" and it doesn't work, he will try other methods. Billy Beane doesn't believe in being aggressive on the basepaths, but Kendall led all catchers in SBs last year. Lopez was successfull over 78% (44 out of 56) times when he stole. Even if Acta doesn't institute an aggressive running offense, Lopez will get his.

And if you think 40 SBs is high (which I don't as long as Lopez stays healthy), then what do you expect? 35? That's still up there in Furcal, Rollins, Jeter territory.

If you honestly don't think he gets 30 steals after watching him the first week of the season, that's your issue. If you drafted him, you did it for his SBs meaning you thought he would steal a decent number of bases. If you completely devalue a player after 1 week of the season, that's how to lose fantasy baseball.
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Postby Coppermine » Tue Apr 10, 2007 9:51 am

hot4tx wrote:If you honestly don't think he gets 30 steals after watching him the first week of the season, that's your issue. If you drafted him, you did it for his SBs meaning you thought he would steal a decent number of bases. If you completely devalue a player after 1 week of the season, that's how to lose fantasy baseball.


I agree with this statement for the most part. I targeted Felipe Lopez as a value to play either SS or 2B in a few leagues. Thankfully I didn't rely on him to be my only 2B. I expected him to be a value after the elite SS were gone and I don't see why he can't steal 35 bases and hit at least 10 home runs. What I was hoping for was a boost to his batting average.

FYI, Khalil Greene was available in one of my leagues and is off to a hot start. I wouldn't drop Lopez for him, but I will bench him until at least he heats up or Greene cools down. Greene's 27 this year and potentially a big sleeper.
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Postby josebach » Tue Apr 10, 2007 10:16 am

I also drafted Lopez to be a backup and just dropped him to pick up Freddy Sanchez who someone dropped pre-maturely. Considering there's no timetable for Lopez gaining 2B eligibility, I have numerous SB guys and I didn't have a backup for either 2B or 3B, I thought it was the smart move. Those drafting him to be their starter might want to give it a few weeks before dropping him for the flavor of the week.
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Postby mushman05 » Tue Apr 10, 2007 10:32 am

Despite their offensive woes, I think Lopez will be fine. On the team I have him on, he's actually the LEAST of my worries right now (Dye, B.Roberts, Pierre, etc. )... I'm more concerned about these guys getting their act together this year then I am Felipe!
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Apr 10, 2007 11:08 am

hot4tx wrote:Even if Acta is not an aggressive baserunning manager, Lopez will run.


What makes you think this?

The Nats were dead last in ST in number of steals attempted.

Through the first week of play, the Nats are dead last in MLB in number of steals attempted, one of only two teams that attempted ZERO steals the entire first week.

Prior to last year, Lopez had never attempted more than 22 steals in a year. Even if you pro-rate based on 600 plate appearances, he never was on track for more than 40 SB attempts in any major league season.

The evidence that "Lopez will run" is based on ONE year, playing under two of the most aggressive base running managers in baseball (Cincy has already attempted 10 SBs this week; like FRobby, they are a very aggressive running team).

hot4tx wrote:If the Nats start out playing "his way" and it doesn't work, he will try other methods.


In other words, you believe Manny Acta is either stupid, a liar, or ignorant

Either he lied about how he thinks aggressive baserunning hurts a team,
or
he believes it but is going to ignore it and stupidly run despite the fact that he believes it will make him lose more games,
or
he's so ignorant despite all his years coaching baseball that he does not already know what works and what does not work.

OK, but I think you are crazy to believe that.

hot4tx wrote:Billy Beane doesn't believe in being aggressive on the basepaths, but Kendall led all catchers in SBs last year.


Care to share any more meaningless information?

The A's attempted just 91 steals last year, ranking 25th in the league (Cincy attempted 157; Washington attempted 195).

Kendall had all of 11 SBs last year, leading the A's. This proves what? Because Kendall attempted 16 SBs, Lopez will run? Does that make ANY sense?

hot4tx wrote:Lopez was successfull over 78% (44 out of 56) times when he stole. Even if Acta doesn't institute an aggressive running offense, Lopez will get his.

And if you think 40 SBs is high (which I don't as long as Lopez stays healthy), then what do you expect? 35? That's still up there in Furcal, Rollins, Jeter territory.

If you honestly don't think he gets 30 steals after watching him the first week of the season, that's your issue. If you drafted him, you did it for his SBs meaning you thought he would steal a decent number of bases. If you completely devalue a player after 1 week of the season, that's how to lose fantasy baseball.


I think he'll attempt fewer than 30 SBs. I think he'll get fewer than 25.

What I think he will do has little to do with the first week of the season. I was talking about this 3 months ago.

Lopez's value has taken two significant hits in the last 6 months. First, the trade to Washington zapped his HR numbers. In Cincy, a strong HR park, he's a 15 HR guy. In RFK, he's a 4-8 HR guy. In 22 plate appearances in RFK he has zero HRs. In Cincy's home park he averaged an extra base hit every 12.5 plate appearances. In RFK, he gets an extra base hit every 20 plate appearances. Over his career, Lopez has averaged 15 HRs per full season. That 15 HR average was made up of 10 HRs at home in Cincy and 5 on the road, on average.

He'll still average 5 on the road.
But, he is not going to average 10 in RFK. He's hit zero in his first 50 games. Guesstimate his average as 0-5 HRs at home for a full 81 games in RFK.

Acta's arrival provides the second hit. You can't steal bases if the manager won't run. Lopez has basically been traded from managers who typically attempted a stolen base at least once per game to a manager who attempts stolen bases less than once a week. It doesn't take a genius to understand that Acta is never going to let him attempt 50-60 stolen bases. My best guess, based on Acta's comments and the way he behaved in ST and this first week, is that Lopez probably is allowed to attempt 25-30. Given his usual success rate, my best guess is that he gets 20-25 SBs, with at best an outside shot at 30 SB.
Best case scenario: Lopez get 40 attempts steals around 30 bases.
Worst case scenario: Acta is like Beane, and nobody attempts more than 20 SBs, and Lopez gets around 15.

Now, I kept Lopez in my keeper league, because I agree you don't want to panic and I have Drew and Kelly Johnson for insurance. I did not draft him in any league, because he was WAY overvalued.

The facts are pretty clear to anyone who looks at them. It's not MY issue or panic based on a week of data.

It's a cold hard look at the facts.

Rather than rant about meaningless numbers like Jason Kendall's numbers, address the facts.

Why should we think Lopez will hit 15 HRs, given that he has ZERO HRs in his first 50 games in RFK?

Why should we think Lopez will be allowed to attempt 50-60 SBs, given that his manager has said he will limit running and his manager had his team attempt the fewest SBs in ST and in the first week of the season?
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Postby hot4tx » Tue Apr 10, 2007 11:40 am

First of all, managers say things all the time to the press but then it works out differently. If you'd have listened to anyone in the Astros organization all spring, Lidge would still be their closer all year long. Pappelbon would still definitely be in the rotation.

Also in the quote he doesn't say that he won't run at all... he says that he's not going to send guys just to send guys... that they'll have to prove they can make it most of the time. Lopez makes it most of the time (over 70% for his career, high 70s% last year).

The Nats were dead last in ST in number of steals attempted.
Yes and Lopez stole 21 bases in 274 at bats.

Through the first week of play, the Nats are dead last in MLB in number of steals attempted, one of only two teams that attempted ZERO steals the entire first week.


Again, if you look at the list of 40+ base stealers that had 1 or zero SBs in week one, you'd see that Lopez stealing zero bases in one week means little to nothing. It was one week.

We are basing predictions that he'll steal bases on the fact that he's only done it for one year. But 2005 was the first year for him to be a regular starter. He was 24 years old and had a 65% success rate. Last year (in his second year as a full-timer) he had a 79% success rate and seemed to figure it out, get his timing, whatever. So it's not like he's had a long career and all of a sudden at 35 stole a ton of bases. Last year is basically all we have to go on.

We're all ok with saying we think Ryan Howard will hit a bunch of HRs based on one year. We're all ok with saying Pappelbon will get us some saves based on one year.

You can have your opinion, and you may end up being right. But if you say that you are right and you know that he WON'T get 40 SBs for sure that's silly. I think the probability is high that he gets 40 or at least 35 SBs. Again, I may be right, I may be wrong - we won't know until September.

And yes, I've seen manager after manager change their "system" to try to make things work.
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Postby josebach » Tue Apr 10, 2007 12:01 pm

Well, one thing is for sure... being conservative on the base paths hasn't helped them so far.
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