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Barry Zito and the NL Switch

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Barry Zito and the NL Switch

Postby masterpinky0509 » Mon Apr 09, 2007 12:32 am

So I was placing a fair amount of stock in the AL-NL switch theory when I guessed that Barry Zito's ERA would drop and his K's would increase...something like 220 IP, 200 H, 60 W, 175 K, 3.5 ERA. The home ballpark didn't hurt either - Pac Bell's brutal on hitters.

But he's looked pretty terrible in his first two starts. Anyone have thoughts on what's holding him back?
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Postby enthepassant » Mon Apr 09, 2007 12:40 am

2 starts is way too little to judge anything. Give Zito a bit more time to adjust and so forth ( i think he has a new delivery).
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Re: Barry Zito and the NL Switch

Postby Steve-o » Mon Apr 09, 2007 12:53 am

masterpinky0509 wrote:...something like 220 IP, 200 H, 60 W, 175 K, 3.5 ERA.


I think those were simply over optimistic numbers. Look at some other numbers:

Year K9 BB9 HR9 PERA
2004 6.4 3.1 1.0 4.42
2005 6.7 3.5 1.0 4.55
2006 5.7 3.8 1.0 4.89

K rate declining over three years, BB increasing. PERA is projected ERA based on the peripheral numbers. As you can tell, he has been very lucky the last few years. In general, the last three years he has not been the great pitcher that his reputation says he is. Sorry. I just don't believe he will be that much more than a 4 for a fantasy team.
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Postby masterpinky0509 » Mon Apr 09, 2007 12:54 am

I heard he came to camp w/ a new delivery and they told him to go back to his old one. I've watched him this year and his delivery seems very similar...if anything, rather than adding power he seems to have subtracted it. His fastball now barely hits 85, and he throws more of them at 83. His Cy Young season was more at 87-90, which gave him a sick speed differential w/ the big 70 mph curve. Now people seem to lay off the curve and make him give them strikes w/ the slow fastball.

I actually don't own him in any leagues, I was just looking at him as a buy-low candidate. But I'm worried his decline is too steep to even justify that.
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Postby Laean » Mon Apr 09, 2007 4:15 am

San Francisco - Barry Zito had an 11.57 ERA after two starts in 2005 and an 8.59 mark after two outings last year, so this year's 8.18 mark hardly seems worth getting excited about. It's not too early to see if he's a buy-low possibility.


NL Team by Team Notes for April 9th.
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Postby Wharton93 » Mon Apr 09, 2007 6:35 am

He's not as bad as his first 2 starts, but he's been in decline for years and there are much better "no-names" to have them pay for "Zito". If you forgot his name and focused on his declining K/9 and declining K/BB the past few years, you wouldn't have even bothered drafting him. And if anybody thinks he can get 175K or limit his BB to only 60, they need to reset their expectations. He's never walked fewer than 78 in a full year and he's been 90-100 the past 2 years. His 1.39 and 1.40 WHIP in 2 of the past 3 seasons is a fairly good indicator he puts a ton of guys on base. He'll be fun to watch in Cincy and Philadelphia road starts...
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Postby JoshDJays » Mon Apr 09, 2007 7:33 am

Who do you think is a better option between Zito and Burnett this season?
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Postby masterpinky0509 » Mon Apr 09, 2007 11:09 am

I think Zito's better than Burnett, esp. with his reliability. Never been on the DL, whereas Burnett is virtually guaranteed to have time there this year.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Apr 09, 2007 11:14 am

I really thought Zito would be dominant in NL this year. Seems like any pitcher leaving Oakland are getting killed out there.
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Postby bellybrother » Mon Apr 09, 2007 12:53 pm

I bought him on accident for $19 in my money NL only thinking one of the other three guys bidding against me would go $20. WHOOPSY!

That being said, he's a notoriously slow starter so I'm not so worried. I wanted to sit him early but decided that he was a better option in week one than my $9 Lilly going against the Reds at GAB. WHOOPSY!

Now I would like to sit him again, but Shawn Hill against the Mets or Paul Maholm against the Cards doesn't seem much better. I'll ride Zito again and hope for the best while expecting the worst.
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