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Soriano Vs. Ichiro (career) Who is the better player?

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Postby jealousblues » Sat Mar 31, 2007 3:13 pm

so you are using OBP alone but leaving out SLG (which Soriano has a HUGE lead in)?

and Soriano has the edge in OPS


*******edit

there is a 72 point difference in SLG
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Postby thedude » Sat Mar 31, 2007 3:16 pm

jealousblues wrote:so you are using OBP alone but leaving out SLG (which Soriano has a HUGE lead in)?

and Soriano has the edge in OPS


*******edit

there is a 72 point difference in SLG


Not in OPS+ which adjusts for ballpark and league. If you use OPS+ Ichiro has the edge.
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Postby jealousblues » Sat Mar 31, 2007 3:18 pm

well thats why I put things here. I dont know how OBS+ works and where to find it.
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Postby thedude » Sat Mar 31, 2007 3:43 pm

jealousblues wrote:well thats why I put things here. I dont know how OBS+ works and where to find it.



Adjusted OPS+

This value is calculated differently from the Total Baseball PRO+ statistic. I chose OPS+ to make this difference more clear. PRO+ as best I can tell is

PRO+ = 100 * ( OBP/lgOBP + SLG/lgSLG - 1)/BPF

Where lgOBP and lgSLG are the slugging and on-base percentage of a league-average player, and BPF is the batting park factor. This takes into account the difference in runs scored in a team's home and road games, so it doesn't depend on how good an offense or defense a team has.

My method is slightly more complicated, but I think it is more correct. The BPF is set up for runs and the way it is implemented in PRO+ applies it to something other than runs.

1. My method Compute the runs created for the league with pitchers removed (basic form) RC = (H + BB + HBP)*(TB)/(AB + BB + HBP + SF)
2. Adjust this by the park factor RC' = RC*BPF
3. Assume that if hits increase in a park, that BB, HBP, TB increase at the some proportion.
4. Assume that Outs = AB - H (more or less) do not change at all as outs are finite.
5. Compute the number of H, BB, HBP, TB needed to produce RC', involves the quadratic formula. The idea for this came from the Willie Davis player comment in the Bill James New Historical Baseball Abstract. I think some others, including Clay Davenport have done some similar things.
6. Using these adjusted values compute what the league average player would have hit lgOBP*, lgSLG* in a park.
7. Take OPS+ = 100 * (OBP/lgOBP* + SLG/lgSLG* - 1)
8. Note, in my database, I don't store lgSLG, but store lgTB and similarly for lgOBP and lg(Times on Base), this makes calculation of career OPS+ much easier.


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Postby KronJon » Sat Mar 31, 2007 4:16 pm

thedude wrote:Ichiro career adjusted OPS+ 119.
Soriano career adjusted OPS+ 115.

Ichiro is better with the bat.

If you also include the fact that Ichiro averages 5 more steals a season with the same number of CS and is a much better defender, you get to the conclusion that Ichiro is a better player.



What he said
;-D
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Postby J35J » Sat Mar 31, 2007 4:41 pm

Fantasy Guru wrote:Who is the better baseball player?

Ichiro, and it's not close.

Soriano is good at two things: Hitting it out, and stealing when he gets on. He had, what, 22 outfield assists, but my boy Manny led the league once, and no one says he should win a gold glove.

At one point, Soriano was mocked for his finely crafted skill of striking out all the time. But I guess now, that's just Soriano being Soriano.

I would much rather have Soriano in fantasy, but there's much more to real life.

As we know, Ichiro is one of the better fielders in the majors, and can just plain hit. If Soriano could learn a few lessons from Ichiro, I think we would have a new 1st overall fantasy player.


The reason why Manny, Soriano and the like (bad OFers) have a high number of OF assists is because everyone trys to get that extra base of them. Thats why Ichiro, Guerrero and the like usually don't have high OF assist #'s because no one wants to try to get that extra base off them because they don't stand a chance. Anyway, just had to comment on that.


On to the original topic, I think they are close only because Soriano slugs so much more than Ichiro but Ichiro is a much better pure hitter and a much better fielder. I'd take Ichiro without looking back, in real life.
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Postby tds1273 » Sat Mar 31, 2007 7:11 pm

RocketsDWM wrote:In BP, he can hit the ball out of the ballpark just about every other pitch but he doesnt do this in games becasue it would hurt the team (probably would have more strikeouts rather than consistent hits). The team needs him to be consistent and they dont need a HR masher in the leadoff spot (need to set up Beltre and Sexson). I think he is tied with Vlad for being the best OF in the game (both have ridiculous arms but Ich has better range). No one runs on Ich anymore after he threw someone out at third from RF.


Exactly what I came in here to say. Ichiro has a world of hidden power in that bat as well, there is just no need for him to use it in the game. I was at the homerun derby here back in 2001 and the real show was watching Ichiro and Vlad in BP. Neither competed in the derby, but wow! Ichiro was just hitting one ball out after another; Vlad was putting the ball deeper and farther up into the left field bleachers than anyone Ive ever seen -- if anyone has a chance to hit it on to S. Royal Brougham Way it's Guerrero.

Anyways back to Ichiro vs Soriano; as everyone else has said in fantasy it goes to Soriano for his across the board numbers, no doubt. In real life, however, it easily goes to Suzuki for all the tangibles that you can see on a basic 5x5(or more) stat sheet. He can place the ball where ever he wants and, agains as it's been said before, DEFENSE wins. Ichiro has the glove, the range(can't wait to watch him cover all that ground in CF this year) and the arm, my-oh-my what an arm.
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Postby Yoda » Sat Mar 31, 2007 7:22 pm

Assuming this is a real life comparison, I would go with Ichiro since he is a better hitter and fielder.

In fantasy, advantage Soriano.
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Postby jealousblues » Sat Mar 31, 2007 8:37 pm

tds1273 wrote:
RocketsDWM wrote:In BP, he can hit the ball out of the ballpark just about every other pitch but he doesnt do this in games becasue it would hurt the team (probably would have more strikeouts rather than consistent hits). The team needs him to be consistent and they dont need a HR masher in the leadoff spot (need to set up Beltre and Sexson). I think he is tied with Vlad for being the best OF in the game (both have ridiculous arms but Ich has better range). No one runs on Ich anymore after he threw someone out at third from RF.


Exactly what I came in here to say. Ichiro has a world of hidden power in that bat as well, there is just no need for him to use it in the game. I was at the homerun derby here back in 2001 and the real show was watching Ichiro and Vlad in BP. Neither competed in the derby, but wow! Ichiro was just hitting one ball out after another; Vlad was putting the ball deeper and farther up into the left field bleachers than anyone Ive ever seen -- if anyone has a chance to hit it on to S. Royal Brougham Way it's Guerrero.

Anyways back to Ichiro vs Soriano; as everyone else has said in fantasy it goes to Soriano for his across the board numbers, no doubt. In real life, however, it easily goes to Suzuki for all the tangibles that you can see on a basic 5x5(or more) stat sheet. He can place the ball where ever he wants and, agains as it's been said before, DEFENSE wins. Ichiro has the glove, the range(can't wait to watch him cover all that ground in CF this year) and the arm, my-oh-my what an arm.


I dont buy the hidden power, so a solo homer is worth less than a single (wich Beltre of all people to knock him in?)
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