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Rich Hill ..expectations?

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Rich Hill ..expectations?

Postby SpecialFNK » Fri Mar 30, 2007 7:49 pm

what type of stats should one expect from Hill this season?
looking at his overall numbers from last season (6-7, 4.17 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) he looks average.
i know he has great potential, but would that come this season?
ofcorse his 1st half to 2nd half numbers are like night and day, but is he expected to be more like his 2nd half numbers? (6-3, 2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 79 K in 80 IP)
would safe numbers be something like 12-13 wins, 3.75-4+ ERA, 1.25+ WHIP? ..or better?
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Postby godallahstar » Fri Mar 30, 2007 7:58 pm

his curveball is filthy,
but my personal opinion is that people are too high on him.
i don't think he has "ace" potential,
but a #2/3 much like dany haren.
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Postby Big Pimpin » Fri Mar 30, 2007 8:13 pm

27 Wins, 285 Ks, 2.75 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP. :-D

Seriously though, I'm very high on him. I rode him down the stretch in a couple leagues last year. But as to what I really expect, I'm not even sure yet.
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Postby RugbyD » Fri Mar 30, 2007 8:47 pm

look at his AAA stats (sorry for lack of link, i don't know one off-hand).

Transistion that to his ML stats and the story i see being told is someone who excelled against eager AAA bats with a filthy #2, but who was forced to learn how to pitch to ML-caliber hitters, resulting in his 2nd half last year. I would not expect his 2nd half to be the norm, but he is handily better than his overall 2006 numbers.
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Postby tgalv » Fri Mar 30, 2007 9:25 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:27 Wins, 285 Ks, 2.75 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP. :-D

Seriously though, I'm very high on him. I rode him down the stretch in a couple leagues last year. But as to what I really expect, I'm not even sure yet.


na i don't think he will be quite as good as daisuke ;-)
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Postby mbuser » Sat Mar 31, 2007 12:16 am

Big Pimpin wrote:27 Wins, 285 Ks, 2.75 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP. :-D

Seriously though, I'm very high on him. I rode him down the stretch in a couple leagues last year. But as to what I really expect, I'm not even sure yet.

that K total isn't exceptionally far from what bill james expects (241)

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... position=P
Image
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Postby Jackie Treehorn » Sat Mar 31, 2007 12:30 am

I'd be cautious. I got sucked into the hype with Harden, Duke, Felix, and some others last year that were hyped due to "filthy stuff" and great second halves. I ended up filling my pitching staff with a bunch of those guys and got screwed. I'd think it's reasonable to expect 12 wins, 160 K's, ERA around 4, and a whip of 1.30. Anything beyond that is gravy. Take these types of guys (Anibal Sanchez, Hamels, Hill, Chuck James, etc.) in the late rounds, but go for the veteran guys in the first half of the draft.
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Postby byfrcp » Sat Mar 31, 2007 2:54 am

I dont' really know about Hill, I think his K numbers look better because he padded his stats with 40 Ks in 4 games againt CIN twice and PIT twice, bad K teams even worse when you take into fact they're out of the race. I'd expect maybe 175 K and don't see him as a great pitcher... at least this season.
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Re: ....

Postby godallahstar » Sat Mar 31, 2007 3:12 am

Jackie Treehorn wrote:I'd be cautious. I got sucked into the hype with Harden, Duke, Felix, and some others last year that were hyped due to "filthy stuff" and great second halves. I ended up filling my pitching staff with a bunch of those guys and got screwed. I'd think it's reasonable to expect 12 wins, 160 K's, ERA around 4, and a whip of 1.30. Anything beyond that is gravy. Take these types of guys (Anibal Sanchez, Hamels, Hill, Chuck James, etc.) in the late rounds, but go for the veteran guys in the first half of the draft.


you have to do some of the researching yourself, though.
people like chuck james or duke really aren't flossing great stuff,
people buy into their numbers or a few good string of starts.

but you really can't try and argue with Harden or Felix having "filthy stuff", they do, they're incredible.

and if you've seen rich hill's curveball, you would say the same thing,
but one pitch isn't going to do it for you in the majors. which is a big reason i'm not very high on him.

knowing what a pitcher is throwing, the quality of it, and his command, or any other issues he may come across, is very very helpful in fantasy baseball.
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Postby mak1277 » Sat Mar 31, 2007 10:19 am

byfrcp wrote:I dont' really know about Hill, I think his K numbers look better because he padded his stats with 40 Ks in 4 games againt CIN twice and PIT twice, bad K teams even worse when you take into fact they're out of the race. I'd expect maybe 175 K and don't see him as a great pitcher... at least this season.


Yes, he padded his stats against those teams, but what's to stop him from doing it again this year? They are in his division after all. Plus, the Pirates for one were MUCH improved in the 2nd half compared to the first, so they were definitely not "even worse...".

I agree that Hill's a touch over-hyped this year, but I also believe he'll be an excellent #3 or 4 fantasy starter that provides a nice number of K's and decent other stats.
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