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Ichiro....what to expect and what gives???

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Ichiro....what to expect and what gives???

Postby Tribe-Fan » Wed Dec 17, 2003 11:02 pm

Ichiro
2001: 127 runs, 56 SB, .350 BA
2002: 111 runs, 31 SB, .321 BA
2003: 111 runs, 34 SB, .312 BA

His declining BA has me concerned. Will he bounce back to the .325 range, or continue to fall closer to .300? Is 30-35 SB all to expect? I don't know, but for a guy that goes fairly high in drafts (on average 32nd overall, ahead of such guys as Berkman, Abreu, Anderson, Giles...according to the composite mock draft thread) he should be putting up better numbers. Personally I take any of the other 4 guys I listed before I take Ichiro, and that is not just because my league counts walks as a 6th cat.

Opinions?
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Postby trevisc » Wed Dec 17, 2003 11:23 pm

you can draft Ichiro and take it to the bank baby! He WILL bounce back and he WILL dominate woohooo!

ok..maybe not all that but I definitly think .325 and 40+ sbs are in his future for 2004
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Postby BigLebowski » Wed Dec 17, 2003 11:51 pm

Isn't it nice to have a player whose average is "falling" towards .300?

Nice problem to have.

I do expect a small rebound as well.
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Postby Madison » Thu Dec 18, 2003 1:39 am

I'm expecting a slight rebound in average this year. As to draft postion, he always seems to go a little too soon for me. ;-)
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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Dec 18, 2003 2:00 am

His batting avg has declined. Whats really concerning, is his oba was a poor 346. His ops has dropped 3 straight years. His runs created has dropped 3 straight. His walk% last year was 5%. He's a hacker, who doesn't walk, doesn't hit for power. If he steals under 30 bags, you will regret having him. He fatigues badly, his 2nd half numbers aren't good. If you have him, deal him before July.
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Re: Ichiro....what to expect and what gives???

Postby Arlo » Thu Dec 18, 2003 12:37 pm

Tribe-Fan wrote:I don't know, but for a guy that goes fairly high in drafts (on average 32nd overall, ahead of such guys as Berkman, Abreu, Anderson, Giles...according to the composite mock draft thread) he should be putting up better numbers.

Keep in mind that thanks to his high number of at bats, Ichiro's .312 is worth more than other .312s. His average may have dipped, but it's still quite an asset.
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Postby trevisc » Thu Dec 18, 2003 12:53 pm

Preach Brother!

Ichiro! Ichiro!

lol


I wish I could keep 4 players in my league! But i'll be cutting Ichiro in favor of Jeter...
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Postby Tribe-Fan » Thu Dec 18, 2003 1:37 pm

trevisc wrote:you can draft Ichiro and take it to the bank baby! He WILL bounce back and he WILL dominate woohooo!

ok..maybe not all that but I definitly think .325 and 40+ sbs are in his future for 2004


Why do you say this? None of his numbers justify this kind of rebound. Is it a feeling?

I am not saying it's not possible, but I see no reason to expect any kind of rebound next season. Hootie's numbers are accurate, and that is the reason I asked the question in the first place. I was hoping someone could shed a positive light on Ichiro's chances for next year with something a little more substantiated then feelings.

His numbers last year were 112 runs, 34 SB, .312 BA. I think it is just as likely that he slips a little next year as it is he rebounds a little. It's not like his indicators are heading upward. So, if he were to slip a little, lets say to 105 runs, 28 SB, .305 BA, well that blows for a guy with an average draft spot of # 32.
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Postby trevisc » Thu Dec 18, 2003 2:27 pm

he's maintained his consistency over the last 3 years and although his Batting average has gone down his percentage of times he got caught stealing went way down. Comparable to Soriano in fact.

Soriano 35 sb CS 8
Ichiro 34 sb CS 8

So I am going on a gut feeling that he will raise his hits to around 220 (he's averaged 220 over the last 3 years) and therefore have more steal opportunities and a better average. So that's why I said .325 with 40+ SBs. Not at all unlikely for Ichiro. Especially since they are working on a new long term contract for him and Japanese are very big on "honor" and I think he will be out to have a better year then last year to show them he really was worth the contract...

just my pennies

;-D
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Postby Madison » Thu Dec 18, 2003 3:13 pm

Ichiro's average has fallen back to back years, I just think he's going to rebound some. Not .350 or anything, but up from the .312 of last year. ;-)
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