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Bow down to the autodraft king!

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Postby EugeneStyles » Sat Feb 22, 2003 10:09 pm

It doesn't look too bad, but you seriously need to drop a bench player (Blalock?), bench Furcal, and pick up a real 1st baseman. McGriff should still be available, or Durazo if no one else. Furcal as your util player is pretty weak, and Dunn at 1B is almost inexcusable. Good pitching and decent OF, though. If you could trade Furcal for a top 10 2B, I'd feel a little better about this team.
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Postby biglfty » Sat Feb 22, 2003 11:01 pm

you have no sticks other than A-rod and 2 decent pitchers. i'd be surprised if you finish in the top 3 in your league.
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Bow down to the autodraft king!

Postby B.O.S. Owner » Sun Feb 23, 2003 12:31 am

i will hand you this....you are the king of confidence! in the 10 team private league i was in last year, you would have missed the playoffs. good luck anyway!
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Postby dnelms » Sun Feb 23, 2003 12:44 am

YOu know this looks to be a classic case of being over confident based on names, not actual production. But explain something...these can't be overall draft numbers.... because if it is, you're in a 3 team league to be able to get the #1 and #4 slot, right?
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Postby Oswalt11 » Sun Feb 23, 2003 1:00 am

How can you say D'Angelo Jimenez is the 6th best 2B??? and Dunn the 8th best 1B?? Sounds like you need to look over your "predictions" or whatever. Are you sure this isnt how you had them ranked? Cuz you cant get 1, 4, 7, slots. Im pretty sure it's impossible.
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Postby Slant » Sun Feb 23, 2003 1:43 am

The #s are the rankings, not the spot in the draft. OK, maybe I'm overconfident, but these rankings are based on concrete numbers.

Jimenez should hit .274 12HR 94R 67RBI 12SB (27% confident)
Batista should hit .259 36HR 89R 92RBI 5SB (45% confident)
Dunn should hit .277 33HR 97R 77RBI 18SB (31% confident)
Blalock should hit .279 19HR 74R 79RBI 8SB (24% confident)
Furcal should hit .291 8HR 106R 53RBI 53SB (30% confident)
this isn't too great, but look at this:
A-Rod should hit .348 60HR 145R 145RBI 23SB (67% confident)

my 2b rankings:
Soriano
Kent
Vidro
Castillo
Boone
Jimenez
Durham
Alomar
Catalanotto
Stynes
Biggio
Walker

my 1b rankings:
pujols
helton
giambi
sweeney
delgado
palmeiro
thome
dunn
bagwell
konerko
sexson
lee

and someone questioned Greg Maddux:
he should pitch 144K 18W 2.68ERA 1.11WHIP (100%confident)
that doesn't mean that I am 100% confident, cuz its relative. It means I am most confident about him than any other player, mostly cuz there's more data available on him and he is an easily definable player type, which means his aging patterns are more predictable.
and Prior... 215K 14W 2.72ERA 1.09WHIP (7% confident)

You may laugh, but like I said, these predictions have a history of being correct. It seems like this year I may have put too much faith in young players I am not very confident about, but usually just as many players overperform as underperform, so hopefully it will even out.

I won using these predictions last year, but I've never gotten so much opposition... oh well, only time will tell.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Feb 23, 2003 3:08 am

Slant wrote:The #s are the rankings, not the spot in the draft. OK, maybe I'm overconfident, but these rankings are based on concrete numbers.

Explain those concrete numbers?


Jimenez should hit .274 12HR 94R 67RBI 12SB (27% confident)
Batista should hit .259 36HR 89R 92RBI 5SB (45% confident)
Dunn should hit .277 33HR 97R 77RBI 18SB (31% confident)
Blalock should hit .279 19HR 74R 79RBI 8SB (24% confident)
Furcal should hit .291 8HR 106R 53RBI 53SB (30% confident)
this isn't too great, but look at this:
A-Rod should hit .348 60HR 145R 145RBI 23SB (67% confident)

94 runs for Jimenez? Arod 145 runs and rbis? Where do you get you % of confidence? Only one of the above is at least 50%. Why would anyone base something on a 24% confident?


You may laugh, but like I said, these predictions have a history of being correct.

If the system is that good, why not get a web site, or try to put out a book?

It seems like this year I may have put too much faith in young players I am not very confident about, but usually just as many players overperform as underperform, so hopefully it will even out.

I won using these predictions last year, but I've never gotten so much opposition... oh well, only time will tell.
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Postby Munson, Roy E » Sun Feb 23, 2003 3:18 am

Dude, are you working with some StarTrek guys like DATA or something?

Hey, what percentage confidence do you have in the Kansas game tomorrow cause I got my bookie on the other line.
"I don't need your sympathy, man, I need my Johnson. ... What do you need that for Dude?"
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Postby dnelms » Sun Feb 23, 2003 8:47 am

Oswalt.... that's why it looks like it was a created league with just 3 people...that's the ONLY way it could happen and then it could not be a snake draft like most are. Not sure how the autodraft ones work for placement of picks? Sounds like someone boasting about something that just ain't true or a valid league, IMHO.
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Postby Fumbler » Sun Feb 23, 2003 12:21 pm

You have a nice pitching staff, but many, many questionable offensive players. Besides A-Rod, you don't have too much to bank on for production. I certainly wouldn't want to rely on Batista, Patterson, Jimenez, Blaylock, Furcal, etc. And Juan Gonzalez is a gamble at best with the injuries and age.

I still don't get the rankings? Are these rankings that you made up yourself?

You have 5 of the the top 12 rated players?!? Umm, sorry:

1. A-Rod
2. Vlad
3. Soriano
4. RJ
5. Pedro
6. Bonds
7. Schilling
8. Pujols
9. Giambi
10. Sosa
11. Magglio
12. Helton

This is by no means a definitive top-12 list, but i think most would agree that this more looks like the top 12. You only have 1 from this list (A-Rod).

Maddux - #4 ??

He's not even close to being a top 4 pitcher, let alone 4th best overall. I'm sorry, but you lost ALL credibility with that one.

Good day, sir. :-)
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