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Tejada to the Orioles

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Dec 17, 2003 3:23 pm

Career .270 hitter. Not what I'd call a great hitter.


Well, if I thought BA summarized hitting ability, I might agree. But, I don't. If you look at more complete performance metrics like OPS, EQA, Win Shares and the like, then what you see is that over the last 3 to 4 years Tejada has hit as well or better than every shortstop who's name isn't Alex Rodriguez.

And, to be clear, I didn't say Tejada was a "great hitter". I said he was a "great hitting SS". As a corner outfielder, Tejada would merely be an above average hitter. So, if you compare him to corner outfielders or 1B, he's not a great hitter. But, that's why it's important to consider position (and park and era) whenever you consider hitting.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/s ... id=1686660
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Postby Madison » Wed Dec 17, 2003 3:35 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Career .270 hitter. Not what I'd call a great hitter.


Well, if I thought BA summarized hitting ability, I might agree. But, I don't. If you look at more complete performance metrics like OPS, EQA, Win Shares and the like, then what you see is that over the last 3 to 4 years Tejada has hit as well or better than every shortstop who's name isn't Alex Rodriguez.

And, to be clear, I didn't say Tejada was a "great hitter". I said he was a "great hitting SS". As a corner outfielder, Tejada would merely be an above average hitter. So, if you compare him to corner outfielders or 1B, he's not a great hitter. But, that's why it's important to consider position (and park and era) whenever you consider hitting.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/s ... id=1686660


True, you have to look at other things when considering who's a good hitter and who's not. Interesting read by the way. ;-D

Personally, I think the O's overpaid. His .278 batting average last year was his highest batting average in his career other than his MVP season 2 years ago. I'm not saying that Tejada stinks, but he's certainly not worth $12 million in my opinion. Rumor is that Vlad is looking for $15 million over 6 years or so. That would have been a better investment than giving Tejada $12 million over the same amount of time.
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Postby Guest » Wed Dec 17, 2003 4:42 pm

Personally, I think the O's overpaid. His .278 batting average last year was his highest batting average in his career other than his MVP season 2 years ago. I'm not saying that Tejada stinks, but he's certainly not worth $12 million in my opinion. Rumor is that Vlad is looking for $15 million over 6 years or so. That would have been a better investment than giving Tejada $12 million over the same amount of time.


Actually, I'm not disagreeing that the Orioles may have overpaid. In fact, for several reasons, I would probably argue that the Orioles HAD to overpay in order to get Tejada. Why?

1. In fact, that's how auction markets work, especially when the asset is underpaid in earlier years (aka, "the Winner's Curse")
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/ ... abay.shtml

2. The Orioles have such a poor reputation among free agents, that they need to compensate for that.

3. Teams that have little hope of play-off contention ought to pay more in salary to compensate players for lack of play-off money, exposure, good times, etc.

4. Overpaying Tejada may encourage Vlad and/or Lopez/Irod to come on board. It's an investment.

5. OP@CY depresses most hitting statistics, so hitters might need to be bribed to come play there.

6. Baltimore does not have a vibrant Latino community, so Latino players may need greater compensation to offset that.

And so on....

Now, having said, that, let's consider. The Orioles are paying Tejada 12 million per year. Tejada's numbers indicate that he'll add 3-5 wins per year to the Orioles. There are a couple different ways you can look at this, but the average team spends about $2 million per "marginal win" (see Doug Pappas' numbers on Baseball Prospectus). Of course, the Orioles are a large market team, so a win earns them more revenue than Milwaukee. I've seen estimates that put the O's in the $3-4 million range per win. Which makes Tejada worth $9-20 million. An analysis on win shares results in similar numbers.

Vlad would be worth more, probably $15-25million..........

...IF he stays healthy. And, that's a big consideration in a long-term contract. He missed 2/3rds of the season with a bad back. By coincidence, his production is about 50% higher than Tejada (usually around 60-75 RARP compares to Tejada's 40-50). If his usual year is more like that in the future (and bad backs are notoriously recurrent), then his really worth no more (and maybe less) than Tejada (2/3 Vlad = Full year of Miggy).

Tejada might be a bit overpaid...but that's understandable and it's really not by a huge amount
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Postby pkarr5000 » Wed Dec 17, 2003 5:21 pm

plus hes a hard worker who plays everyday ;-D
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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Dec 18, 2003 1:04 am

If he had signed in Oakland or Seattle, teams with a solid nucleus, it would make sense. Unless Baltimore wins, and i don't see it happening soon, i think thers a possibilty that they paid 72 mil to lose, or be a 500 team. Just my humble opinion.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Dec 18, 2003 7:25 am

If he had signed in Oakland or Seattle, teams with a solid nucleus, it would make sense. Unless Baltimore wins, and i don't see it happening soon, i think thers a possibilty that they paid 72 mil to lose, or be a 500 team. Just my humble opinion.


Well, you gotta start somewhere. If the Orioles do not add 3-5 major position players in the next year or two, it will be at least 5 or 6 years before they'd have a nucleus. Having watched them squander their last 6 (really 10-12 years) with poor player development and bad free agent signings, 6 more years of waiting could simply destroy the franchise. They do have a decent core of pitching prospects and some decent role players. With literally no star position prospects on the near horizon, the only viable strategy for the Orioles is to begin to build that nucleus with a few high quality free agents. Three or four players of Tejada-like quality (adding 3-5 wins each), plus continued development of young pitchers (another 5 wins total) plus continued development of Matos/Bigbie/Gibbons etc. (2-4 wins total) and you have an 90-100 win team. It's not the ideal strategy, but it's really the only credible plan for the team at this time.
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