How often do great minor league stats NOT transfer to MLB?

[NikkiSixx]

Im not talking about good, or above average minor league stats. Im talking about players who put up GREAT minor league stats such as Howie Kendrick, or Philip Hughes.

Howie Kendrick's career minor league stats:
.361 avg., .405 obp., and .570 slg. (over 5 seasons).

Philip Hughes career minor league stats:
2.13 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 10.21 K/9, 2.05 BB/9, 0.23 HR/9, 5.69 H/9 (over 3 seasons).


My question is, do great minor league numbers basically guarantee major league success?

[cordscords]

Bill James believes that Minor League Stats are the strongest indicator of how a player will perform in the minor leagues.

Usually if a player is dominant in the minors, it's rare you will see a player fail unless injuries come into play.

[pokerplaya]

Bill James believes that Minor League Stats are the strongest indicator of how a player will perform in the minor leagues.

Really? That's deep.

Just kidding. We all know what you meant....

[Yoda]

It depends on a lot of things. Age is probably the most important versus the league the player is in. Stats are important but a 25 yo pitcher dominating AA is not the same as a 20 yo pitcher putting up average numbers at the same level.

MLE's are the best we have to work with and a lot of times they are a good indicator but unfortunately they are far from being accurate. It really depends on the individual player and how they adjust to MLB. Until they play, it is very hard to accurately predict.

[DeadWinterDay]

Bill James believes that Minor League Stats are the strongest indicator of how a player will perform in the minor leagues.

Really? That's deep.

Just kidding. We all know what you meant....

I laughed nonetheless

[GotowarMissAgnes]

In context---making appropriate adjustments for age, park, and other factors--minor league stats are just as good for predicting future major league performance as major league stats are. So, trust them as much as those.

[The Jury]

Okay, so back to the question...

Do great minor league numbers usually dictate major league success?

[Tavish]

Okay, so back to the question...

Do great minor league numbers usually dictate major league success?

Moreso than bad minor league numbers dictate major league success.

Its really hard to put an exact number on it. You can look at it in the same way as you look at players who put up great rookie seasons in the majors. Quite often they go on to be All-Star caliber players, yet some go on to be Angel Berroa.

[NikkiSixx]

Okay, so back to the question...

Do great minor league numbers usually dictate major league success?

Moreso than bad minor league numbers dictate major league success.

Its really hard to put an exact number on it. You can look at it in the same way as you look at players who put up great rookie seasons in the majors. Quite often they go on to be All-Star caliber players, yet some go on to be Angel Berroa.

Angel Berroa's minor league stats were actually quite mediocre (.271/.322/.440).

[NikkiSixx]

Also, thats another thing to watch out for with guys like Chris Duncan who looked phenomenal last year in the majors. However, according to his minor league stats (.261/.341/.412), last year was just a fluke.