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Javier Vazquez.

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Javier Vazquez.

Postby Doughhead » Sun Mar 25, 2007 10:26 pm

Good inning eater. Very good Ks. Reasonable WHIP. Chance for wins. Brutal ERA.

Is this what we can expect from Javy again or is there a chance for him to cut that ERA and become a top 20 pitcher again?
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Postby The Jury » Sun Mar 25, 2007 10:39 pm

I think this is what we should expect from him again this year. US Cellular field gives up the longball, as does Vazquez as a power pitcher. But I'll take the innings, the excellent strikeouts, and the fine WHIP (he doesn't walk many). He should win about 15 games. All in all a solid pitcher that you can get a reasonable price on draft day.

There's also the potential for his ERA to decrease to around 3.50 maybe, but the rest of his stats are solid anyways.
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Postby LukeW9027 » Sun Mar 25, 2007 10:40 pm

I would expect him to be close to what he put up last season, but his PERA have been under his ERA the last two seasons so this may be a big year for him if he gets a little luckier on the mound.

He should be good for 12 wins 190 Ks 1.25 WHIP and a 4.2-4.5 WHIP.

A solid inning eater for a fantasy staff.
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Postby SOUTHSIDE HITMEN » Sun Mar 25, 2007 10:47 pm

LukeW9027 wrote:I would expect him to be close to what he put up last season, but his PERA have been under his ERA the last two seasons so this may be a big year for him if he gets a little luckier on the mound.

He should be good for 12 wins 190 Ks 1.25 WHIP and a 4.2-4.5 WHIP.

A solid inning eater for a fantasy staff.


I agree with everything except the improved bullpen might get him 15 wins. A good value pick late in the draft.
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Postby Dawgpound 1613 » Mon Mar 26, 2007 6:46 am

For some players, my opinion is that "luck" rests, in part, inside the mind. He's been unlucky for 3 years - or ever since he left Montreal.

Is it coincedence that he leaves obscurity and starts getting unlucky? Maybe. But I'd draft him expecting a repeat of the last couple of years and hope he truly has been unlucky and his ERA will catch up to his skills.
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Postby SignGuy » Mon Mar 26, 2007 8:31 am

I cant count how many Sox games i watched last year when Javy is lights out for the first 4 innings or so then gets bombed in the 5th or 6th. As someone above noted, his peripherals suggest his ERA should be almost a full run lower, but peripherals dont help much at the end of the day when he posts another 4.50 ERA which is what will probably happen unless he his luck changes or gets dealt. should be good for 13-15 wins, great K's, good whip but the ERA could be anywhere from 3.50 to 4.50
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Postby Philliebuster » Mon Mar 26, 2007 9:36 am

Lets compare these two from 06:

Garland vs. Vazquez

Win/IP/K/BB/ERA/WHIP/HR

G-18/211/112/41/4.51/1.36/26
V-11/202/184/56/4.84/1.29/23

Vazquez is the better pitcher IMO, however Garland had 18 wins to Vasquez's 11. Other than the Wins and ERA #s, Vazquez's #'s are great.

The cbs projections for 07 have Garland with very similar whip/era Vasquez with superior peripheral stats and garland with 17 wins and Vazquez with 12. Not sure I fully understand that?

I was very suprised to see that both Garland (6.39) and Vazquez (6.48) were top 10 in MLB in run support last season :-o . Why does Javy do so badly?
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Postby shasty mcnasty » Mon Mar 26, 2007 11:19 am

Philliebuster wrote:Lets compare these two from 06:

Garland vs. Vazquez

Win/IP/K/BB/ERA/WHIP/HR

G-18/211/112/41/4.51/1.36/26
V-11/202/184/56/4.84/1.29/23

Vazquez is the better pitcher IMO, however Garland had 18 wins to Vasquez's 11. Other than the Wins and ERA #s, Vazquez's #'s are great.

The cbs projections for 07 have Garland with very similar whip/era Vasquez with superior peripheral stats and garland with 17 wins and Vazquez with 12. Not sure I fully understand that?

I was very suprised to see that both Garland (6.39) and Vazquez (6.48) were top 10 in MLB in run support last season :-o . Why does Javy do so badly?


javy has the more fantasy-friendly #s because he's the power pitcher strike out guy, whereas Garland is the ground-ball guy. The thing that i noticed last year was his frustrating tendency to dominate the first 4 innings, and then, come the 5th, to fall apart and give up a ridiculous big inning. Seemed like a mental thing, more than anything else, but whatever it was, it seemed to get him taken out of games earlier than a guy like Garland, so i figure that's where the difference in Wins shows up. Of course, up until a couple years ago, the ridiculous big inning was also Garland's personal demon, but he seems to have learned how to get himself out of that one bad spot, and continue in the game, whereas, Javy, at least last year, showen an obnoxious inability to pitch out of jams, thus giving up the big inning and forcing the manager to take him out.
All that being said, i've heard interviews with the Sox pitching coach this spring, and he seems to think that there were some mechanical things that Javy would do once a runner got on or whatever, that would lead to his getting shelled, and that they have addressed the issue, and that is why they felt so comfortable signing him to a pretty healthy extension this offseason. Obviously, it's spring training, so everyone's feeling good about their guys right now, but with the dominating stuff he has shown, his strikeout #s, and the Sox' apparent faith in him, he's a guy i'm considering in the late rounds...he can be had without burning anything like a top pick, and his upside is definitely worth the risk at his ADP.
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Postby J35J » Mon Mar 26, 2007 11:21 am

I love grabbing Vaz late to fill out my rotation. He is a low risk/high reward type of guy!
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Postby cosmokid » Mon Mar 26, 2007 11:52 am

i grabbed him in the 11th round (+5 rounds for 5 holdovers) of a fantasy points h2h league yesterday. getting someone like vazquez in what is basically the 16th round is a no-brainer for me.
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