Lets compare these two from 06:
Garland vs. Vazquez
Vazquez is the better pitcher IMO, however Garland had 18 wins to Vasquez's 11. Other than the Wins and ERA #s, Vazquez's #'s are great.
The cbs projections for 07 have Garland with very similar whip/era Vasquez with superior peripheral stats and garland with 17 wins and Vazquez with 12. Not sure I fully understand that?
I was very suprised to see that both Garland (6.39) and Vazquez (6.48) were top 10 in MLB in run support last season
. Why does Javy do so badly?
javy has the more fantasy-friendly #s because he's the power pitcher strike out guy, whereas Garland is the ground-ball guy. The thing that i noticed last year was his frustrating tendency to dominate the first 4 innings, and then, come the 5th, to fall apart and give up a ridiculous big inning. Seemed like a mental thing, more than anything else, but whatever it was, it seemed to get him taken out of games earlier than a guy like Garland, so i figure that's where the difference in Wins shows up. Of course, up until a couple years ago, the ridiculous big inning was also Garland's personal demon, but he seems to have learned how to get himself out of that one bad spot, and continue in the game, whereas, Javy, at least last year, showen an obnoxious inability to pitch out of jams, thus giving up the big inning and forcing the manager to take him out.
All that being said, i've heard interviews with the Sox pitching coach this spring, and he seems to think that there were some mechanical things that Javy would do once a runner got on or whatever, that would lead to his getting shelled, and that they have addressed the issue, and that is why they felt so comfortable signing him to a pretty healthy extension this offseason. Obviously, it's spring training, so everyone's feeling good about their guys right now, but with the dominating stuff he has shown, his strikeout #s, and the Sox' apparent faith in him, he's a guy i'm considering in the late rounds...he can be had without burning anything like a top pick, and his upside is definitely worth the risk at his ADP.