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Closer Tiers...

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Postby pokerplaya » Sat Mar 24, 2007 7:30 pm

RJ24VC15 wrote:Nathan
Krod

Rivera
BJ Ryan
Hoffman

Wagner
Street
Putz

Saito
Cordero
Jenks
Lidge
Ray
F.Cordero
Feuntes
Gordon
Gagne
Isringhausen

Wickman
Valverde
Dotel
Borowski
T.Jones
Tankersly
Hermanson
Torres
Pineiro


Hoffman over Wagner? :-?

Does your league not count K's? :-?
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Postby jfg » Sat Mar 24, 2007 7:44 pm

Doughhead wrote:Seems awfully low for Hoffman. He's not a good K pitcher, but otherwise he's as good as anybody out there.


Those K's aren't good. But, I agree that is too low. I put a lot of trust in Baseball Prospectus with a few of my own tweaks, but I looked over Hoffman when tweaking... Why would Prospectus have him so low? 25 saves, 3.47 era, 1.17 WHIP. He's old, but he hasn't come close to those ratios since 2001, and hasn't come close to that low of saves since 1995. I wonder what they are thinking...

Goes to show that you need to close at even the most in depth rankings, because there always are errors in judgment.
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Postby Doughhead » Sat Mar 24, 2007 9:19 pm

His age must be worrisome to PECOTA. I can't think of any other explanation.
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Re: Closer Tiers...

Postby Jiu » Sat Mar 24, 2007 11:04 pm

My closer tiers:

K-Rod
Nathan
BJ Ryan

Papelbon
Rivera
Wagner

Street
Hoffman

Chad Cordero
Ray
Putz
Francisco Cordero
Jenks
Gagne
Lidge
Saito

Everyone else
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Postby smokin' Aces » Sat Mar 24, 2007 11:28 pm

All these responses are great but why has no one thought about this theory? draft one top closer say a nathan, k rod, etc. and then get a few set up pichers like joel zumzya, proctor, broxton etc. guys like these to me seem underrated and under valued. my theory is that (example) joel zumaya definatly will get you k's but also has the potential to get saves and even a win in some cases. with even the possability to overtake the closer role. i think these type of guys will give you more value than some of the quote unquote top closers. :-? sorry if this doesn't apply to this topic.
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Postby Jiu » Sun Mar 25, 2007 12:46 am

smokin' Aces wrote:All these responses are great but why has no one thought about this theory? draft one top closer say a nathan, k rod, etc. and then get a few set up pichers like joel zumzya, proctor, broxton etc. guys like these to me seem underrated and under valued. my theory is that (example) joel zumaya definatly will get you k's but also has the potential to get saves and even a win in some cases. with even the possability to overtake the closer role. i think these type of guys will give you more value than some of the quote unquote top closers. :-? sorry if this doesn't apply to this topic.


That's a fine strategy in roto leagues. However, in FP-based leagues where saves are important, it doesn't ususally work out. For example, Zumaya only averaged 4.3 ppg in my league last year; about half as much as the average closer.

Of course, if someone like Zumaya ends up getting the closer role, then that's a whole other story.
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Postby CBMGreatOne » Sun Mar 25, 2007 3:23 am

My closer tiers:

K-Rod
Nathan
BJ Ryan

Papelbon
Rivera
Wagner

Street
Hoffman

Chad Cordero
Ray
Putz
Francisco Cordero
Jenks
Gagne
Lidge
Saito

Everyone else


Mine are pretty close to that:

KRod
Nathan
Ryan

Paps
Rivera
Wagner

Chad Cordero
Hoffman
Street
Putz

Ray
Fuentes
Francisco Cordero
Jenks
Valverde
Gagne

Others may belong in the 4th tier, but I have my reasons for disliking and excluding them.
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Postby biggamer3 » Sun Mar 25, 2007 3:39 am

Guys i am the only one who really likes taking Valverde and Fuentes in like rounds 12 and 13?
i mean they will each get at least 30 saves barring injury
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Postby Ender » Sun Mar 25, 2007 8:27 am

jfg wrote:
Doughhead wrote:Seems awfully low for Hoffman. He's not a good K pitcher, but otherwise he's as good as anybody out there.


Those K's aren't good. But, I agree that is too low. I put a lot of trust in Baseball Prospectus with a few of my own tweaks, but I looked over Hoffman when tweaking... Why would Prospectus have him so low? 25 saves, 3.47 era, 1.17 WHIP. He's old, but he hasn't come close to those ratios since 2001, and hasn't come close to that low of saves since 1995. I wonder what they are thinking...

Goes to show that you need to close at even the most in depth rankings, because there always are errors in judgment.


Pretty much injury risk and regression due to age. If you believe he's going to stay strong another year I'd look at a higher percentile projection for him since he's killed by his 10%, 25% projections which include him falling apart.
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Postby jfg » Sun Mar 25, 2007 10:13 am

Ender wrote:
jfg wrote:
Doughhead wrote:Seems awfully low for Hoffman. He's not a good K pitcher, but otherwise he's as good as anybody out there.


Those K's aren't good. But, I agree that is too low. I put a lot of trust in Baseball Prospectus with a few of my own tweaks, but I looked over Hoffman when tweaking... Why would Prospectus have him so low? 25 saves, 3.47 era, 1.17 WHIP. He's old, but he hasn't come close to those ratios since 2001, and hasn't come close to that low of saves since 1995. I wonder what they are thinking...

Goes to show that you need to close at even the most in depth rankings, because there always are errors in judgment.


Pretty much injury risk and regression due to age. If you believe he's going to stay strong another year I'd look at a higher percentile projection for him since he's killed by his 10%, 25% projections which include him falling apart.


Good idea
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