Pre-2003 predictions from HQ and their results

[Area51's]

http://fantasy.sportingnews.com/basebal ... seball_hq/


Pretty interesting predictions from HQ/SN here, including:


JANUARY 17, 2003: Which of these AL pitching situations is most likely to happen?

Pct. Event
7% Jose Contreras wins 20 games for the Yankees.
17% Chan Ho Park posts an ERA under 4.00.
8% Damaso Marte gets more saves that Billy Koch.
14% A Kansas City starter (any starter) posts 200 IP.
54% A Boston reliever (any reliever) amasses 20 saves



Kinda cool to see what most folks thought would happen before the start of last year. Can't believe anyone thought Chan Ho would be under 5, let alone 4 w/ Texas.

[Madison]

JANUARY 24, 2003: Which of these NL pitching situations is most likely to happen?

Pct. Event
14% Kerry Wood and Mark Prior combine for 40 wins.
25% Greg Maddux does NOT lead the Braves' starters in ERA.
30% Matt Mantei gets more saves than Byung-Hyun Kim.
14% Kevin Brown posts 180 IP in LA.
17% A Montreal reliever (any reliever) amasses 30 saves.

FEBRUARY 7, 2003: Which of these AL batting situations is most likely to happen?

Pct. Event
27% Hank Blalock gets 500 AB at 3B in TEX.
22% Brian Roberts lands the starting SS job in BAL.
32% OAK, as a team, will steal at least 50 bases.
11% Dean Palmer stays in the DET lineup for 400 AB.
8% Hideki Matsui wins the Rookie-of-the-Year and MVP awards.

FEBRUARY 14, 2003: Which of these NL batting situations is most likely to happen?

Pct. Event
29% Hee Seop Choi and Bobby Hill are in the Opening Day lineup for CHC.
42% Jack Cust and Gabe Kapler combine for 25 HRs.
15% Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre combine for 120 SBs.
11% Barry Bonds registers 500 official ABs.
2% Johnny Estrada makes ATL fans forget the Millwood trade.

A bunch of interesting predictions for last year. Thanks for the link .

Something that caught my eye:

The Denver Doctrine states: "Coors does not turn bad hitters into good hitters; it only turns good hitters into better hitters."

I agree.

[The Cow]

that still doesn't explain Mr. Wilson's year last year. So he was a good hitter when he hit .240 for the Marlins??

The Cow

[Madison]

that still doesn't explain Mr. Wilson's year last year. So he was a good hitter when he hit .240 for the Marlins??

The Cow

Who has said that Wilson is a good hitter? He has a career average of .267. So he went up to .282, that's not unusual. There were lots of guys that did that last year. It was the 207 at bats with runners in scoring position that leads everyone to think that Preston is a great player now. That won't happen again next year. Watch and see.

[Transmogrifier]

that still doesn't explain Mr. Wilson's year last year. So he was a good hitter when he hit .240 for the Marlins??

The Cow

Who has said that Wilson is a good hitter? He has a career average of .267. So he went up to .282, that's not unusual. There were lots of guys that did that last year. It was the 207 at bats with runners in scoring position that leads everyone to think that Preston is a great player now. That won't happen again next year. Watch and see.

So, Mad, you're predicting a down year for Wilson? (OR, rather, a more normal year?)

[Erboes]

Madison is saying that there's no way he will come to bat with 207 runners in scoring position again. Since he'll be hitting in Colorado half the time, I have no idea how he can be so confident of that.

And Madison also is saying his other numbers aren't so crazy, considering his average, like Madison said, was only .15 higher than normal and he hit only 5 more homers that he'd average over 600 at bats prior to last season. All this has to be considered a minor "Coors bump."

Other than his RBI's, which I'll take Madison's word for and he won't repeat them, I don't see anything crazy about his numbers. If he has 600 at bats again, I wouldnt' be surprised if he surpasses his average and homer totals from last season. That's just my opinion though.

[Madison]

So, Mad, you're predicting a down year for Wilson? (OR, rather, a more normal year?)

I expect his rbi total to drop some. The .282 average isn't a stretch, and 36 home runs isn't a stretch. 14 steals is actually less than the 20 he stole in '02 and in '01.

I was only responding to The Cow's comment. I got the impression that he seemed to think that Preston's year was entirely based on Coors. The only thing that Wilson highly overachieved at was rbi and that was due to the sheer number of opportunities that he had. The 207 was just runners in scoring position. He had 331 at bats with runners on, and only 269 at bats with the bags empty. That's a ton of chances, and I don't see it happening again next year.

[The Cow]

Wilson improved his avg by about 40 points from 2002 to 2003. That appears to be a big jump, when you consider that at the end of 2002 Wilson was on the waiver wire in many leagues. I mean the guy's career appeared to be going south, with all the K's and a .240 AVG, ugh. His saving grace was being dealt to Coors where he was able to see more fastballs as pitchers are more hesitant to throw the hook at Coors.

Later,
The Cow

[Madison]

Wilson improved his avg by about 40 points from 2002 to 2003.That appears to be a big jump, when you consider that at the end of 2002 Wilson was on the waiver wire in many leagues.

True. That's why it's so hard to just look at one year of stats. His career average is .267. He hit .243 in '02, so he was .24 under his career average. Last year he hit .282, which is .15 over it. Not really that big of a deal. Most players have up and down years. some are not as dramatic, but I've seen a lot worse.

Don't misunderstand. I'm not saying that Preston is great or anything, just that I would deal him while he's got peak value.