PlayingWithFire wrote: 05worldserieschamps wrote:
You gotta admit the bust factor is high for Maybin though.
Why is the bust factor so high on Maybin? Sure, maybe he has a slightly better chance of Busting, but with that comes a much bigger upside. Butler could easily bust and become Jack Cust as mentioned before.
I wouldn't say slightly better chance of busting, when's the last time some prospect struck out over 100 times in under 400 ab in A ball, doesn't walk at all and then when on to do great things?
Sorry man gotta call you out on a few declarations.
First off. Maybin's hr's(9) were mostly due to him hitting in most likely the worst hitters park in the Midwest League. In most other parks he would have had btwn 15-20. Which would be just as good as any other. I tend to listen to scouts who say this guy has incredible bat speed and power potential.
Second. Not sure where you get that Maybin doesn't walk. He had 50 walks.....
If he cuts his k's down even a little and shows even a bit more power(both of which everyone full expects) he easily establishes himself as an elite prospect. He also had about 30 steals in those 385 ab's.
He also missed a whole month with a trigger hand problem. I'm sure he would have posted 3-4 more dingers, even in that horrendous hitters park. Also he projects with a plus plus arm and plus plus speed. A very good defender in Cf as well.
I think his bust rate is more medium than high. I honestly think barring injury or anything out of the extra ordinary the lowest he becomes is a Cameron/Hunter type. Which would be a .260-275 hitter and a 25/25 guy, with a peak year of 30/30. Great cf with that. Not great, but nothing to sneeze at whatsoever.
40/40 is very attianable if he improves as planned, but I'd think he's more along the lines of a .285-.310 hitter, with 30/30 yearly average and a few years peak of 40/40. If everything goes right. I think around 29/30 he would move to a corner spot and add more power and lose a bit speed. This could be when the Vlad/Dawson type comps come into play. I think he will resemble a young "healthy" Eric Davis in the beginning though.
Even with a loss in speed, I think he would still be around 20 sb's even in those years.