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Butler, Maybin, or Longoria?

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Postby thedude » Sun Mar 25, 2007 7:50 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:
05worldserieschamps wrote:1. It doesn't matter where Butler and Maybin are. I don't care if Butler is in AAA and Maybin is in A. It based on potential.

2. Troy Glaus was 22 in his first Pro Season. Maybin was 19, and still is 19. You come back and tell me in 3 years who's K/BB ratio is better then. Maybin's potential is through the roof. Even if Butler does EDGE Maybin out in hitting(if he does), Maybin's 40+ Stolen Base Potential is too much.


If it's potential only Elijah Dukes would be a top 10 prospect. But it's about potential and how likely he's to get there. And IMO Butler is way more likely to arrive than Maybin.


I like Maybin a little more than Butler, but not much. People get way too hung up on potenial sometimes, and don't really take into account the chance of attaining that potenial.
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Postby 05worldserieschamps » Mon Mar 26, 2007 9:58 am

If it's potential only Elijah Dukes would be a top 10 prospect. But it's about potential and how likely he's to get there. And IMO Butler is way more likely to arrive than Maybin.


Right, but Elijah Dukes isn't in this discussion. Maybin or Butler have no history what so ever of disciplinary based problems, so there is no reason to bring up Dukes. Like I said, Butler may be a slightly safer bet to reach his potential, but with that, his upside isn't anywhere near Maybins.
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Postby Nails » Thu Mar 29, 2007 5:48 pm

05worldserieschamps wrote:
If it's potential only Elijah Dukes would be a top 10 prospect. But it's about potential and how likely he's to get there. And IMO Butler is way more likely to arrive than Maybin.


Right, but Elijah Dukes isn't in this discussion. Maybin or Butler have no history what so ever of disciplinary based problems, so there is no reason to bring up Dukes. Like I said, Butler may be a slightly safer bet to reach his potential, but with that, his upside isn't anywhere near Maybins.


To say that Butler's upside isn't anywhere near Maybins is asinine. Butler projects to hit for a higher average, more power, and strikeout significantly less. He has absolutely no speed, but should contend for a triple crown in his prime. Maybin potentially has Ken Griffey Jr upside, but with the high amount of strikeouts coupled with the type of player he is (speed/power) it will be harder to reach such a lofty level of production. Also remember that much of Maybin's power potential is theoretical. Maybin has not displayed much power, but scouts feel that he will "grow" into his frame and with that add power. If he doest that, there is a chance that he will lose the speed (or at least reduce) potential that he has. Also remember, as stated before, these prospect lists are not necessarily "fantasy" prospect lists. These lists incorporate all facets of the game. Since Butler is weak defensively, he would rank lower.

Let's be clear. I would love to have Maybin and/or Butler on my team, but if I had to pick a safer bet I would take Butler. He has more experience (although limited) and has shown better stats over higher levels. The other deciding factor is team needs and type of league.
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Postby Urbanist » Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:25 am

PlayingWithFire wrote:
05worldserieschamps wrote:
You gotta admit the bust factor is high for Maybin though.




Why is the bust factor so high on Maybin? Sure, maybe he has a slightly better chance of Busting, but with that comes a much bigger upside. Butler could easily bust and become Jack Cust as mentioned before.


I wouldn't say slightly better chance of busting, when's the last time some prospect struck out over 100 times in under 400 ab in A ball, doesn't walk at all and then when on to do great things?


Sorry man gotta call you out on a few declarations.

First off. Maybin's hr's(9) were mostly due to him hitting in most likely the worst hitters park in the Midwest League. In most other parks he would have had btwn 15-20. Which would be just as good as any other. I tend to listen to scouts who say this guy has incredible bat speed and power potential.

Second. Not sure where you get that Maybin doesn't walk. He had 50 walks.....

If he cuts his k's down even a little and shows even a bit more power(both of which everyone full expects) he easily establishes himself as an elite prospect. He also had about 30 steals in those 385 ab's.

He also missed a whole month with a trigger hand problem. I'm sure he would have posted 3-4 more dingers, even in that horrendous hitters park. Also he projects with a plus plus arm and plus plus speed. A very good defender in Cf as well.

I think his bust rate is more medium than high. I honestly think barring injury or anything out of the extra ordinary the lowest he becomes is a Cameron/Hunter type. Which would be a .260-275 hitter and a 25/25 guy, with a peak year of 30/30. Great cf with that. Not great, but nothing to sneeze at whatsoever.

40/40 is very attianable if he improves as planned, but I'd think he's more along the lines of a .285-.310 hitter, with 30/30 yearly average and a few years peak of 40/40. If everything goes right. I think around 29/30 he would move to a corner spot and add more power and lose a bit speed. This could be when the Vlad/Dawson type comps come into play. I think he will resemble a young "healthy" Eric Davis in the beginning though.

Even with a loss in speed, I think he would still be around 20 sb's even in those years.
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Postby High Heater » Wed Apr 04, 2007 6:16 pm

very well put
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