I've got projections, how to calc FP? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014

## I've got projections, how to calc FP?

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### I've got projections, how to calc FP?

My brain isn't working today. I've got projections for a 5x5 league, but how do I assign and calculate Fantasy Points to get an overall ranking or positional ranking?

Magnus_CA
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### Re: I've got projections, how to calc FP?

Magnus_CA wrote:My brain isn't working today. I've got projections for a 5x5 league, but how do I assign and calculate Fantasy Points to get an overall ranking or positional ranking?

is it a points league, or standard roto? Looking for dollar values or general rankings which take position scarcity into account?

vr, Xei
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xeifrank
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It's pretty straightforward VBD for points leagues. Calculate each player's points based on the projections and your points scoring system. Determine the points baseline for each position. The simple baseline is to use the 24th catcher if you start 2 catchers and have 12 teams, for example. Players projected value minus projected baseline value gives you the value of that player for that position.

Decent beginner's article for VBD: http://www.footballguys.com/bryantvbd.htm

It's a football article but the principles are the same for baseball points.

Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
Amazinz
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### Re: I've got projections, how to calc FP?

xeifrank wrote:is it a points league, or standard roto? Looking for dollar values or general rankings which take position scarcity into account?

vr, Xei

Standard Roto, no dollar values, just general rankings
Magnus_CA
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If this were a points league the solution would be easy, but it's not a points league. I could assign 1 point for every R, SB, HR, RBI, W, S, and K, but how to account for the ratios (i.e. AVG, ERA, WHIP)?
Magnus_CA
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OK you said Fantasy Points in your initial post...

Try searching for calculating dollars there have been some good threads on various ways to go about it. The answer is a lot more complex.

Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
Amazinz
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I did a lot of research on this topic this year because I wanted to do my own rankings. You will find a lot of opinions and it can become quite confusing. The best information for starting out I found in this article from a link on one of the posts on here: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.p ... _baseball/

The basic steps are

1. Reduce your list to what you consider draftable players for your league. My list contains roughly 190 hitters and 130 pitchers

2. Take standard deviations for each scoring category, separately for hitters and pitchers of course. This is easy for counting stats like HR's or K's and a bit more involved for average stats like BA and ERA. See the article for help.

3. Add up the the points in the scoring categories for each player.

Then you have some rough numbers to rank your players, but you haven't taken into account position scarcity. To make things simple, I sorted my rankings by position. For my 12 team league that starts one 1B, I set the 13th rated 1B's point value to zero. I then added that same value I used to zero him out to all of the other 1st basemen. Do the same for each position but make sure to take into account how many active spots your league uses for each position. For example, my league starts 5 OFs, so I set the 61st OF to zero points. For pitchers, I estimated 6 SPs and 4 RPs, so I zeroed out the 73rd SP and 49th RP.

Now you have points that are adjusted (somewhat) for position scarcity.

I went a bit further with this myself and continued to tweak my rankings with more calculations and adjustments, but this is one way to get you started.
deutschland
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Yeah, there are a couple of ways to do it. There's the camp that believes in standard deviations and the camp that believes in looking at the counting stat pool above replacement value and what percent player X contributes to that pool. Both methods have some very intelligent people explaining the benefits of one method over the other. I'd look into some of the things that Todd Zola at Masterballs (or is it Mastersball?) wrote on the subject as an additional read to the previous post to mine.
vr, Xei
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Author of: The Sober Angels
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xeifrank
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