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Matthew Berry is an idiot..

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Postby TheRock » Wed Mar 21, 2007 11:01 am

As columnists go, he's never struck me as the most knowledgeable. But he sure is fun to read. And he usually points out a thing or two I hadn't thought of.
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Postby thedude » Wed Mar 21, 2007 11:01 am

BitterDodgerFan wrote:he keeps saying igawa will have diceK like numbers. i dunno about that.


I disagree with that.


But he is right about Howard.
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Re: Matthew Berry is an idiot..

Postby Yoda » Wed Mar 21, 2007 11:04 am

raiders_umpire wrote:
chris8 wrote:
raiders_umpire wrote:
elltrain22 wrote:He is that dude that came on ESPN last night and said people are draftin Ryan Howard too early. !!!




I agreed with him on what he said about Howard last night. :-°

So what exactly did he say about Howard? :-?



Basically that Howard has been going top 4 in most drafts, but with the lack of protection behind Howard right now in Philly that is quite a bit too high. If Burrell does not produce, then Howard will be getting lots of free passes and hurt his power numbers.


That makes a lot of sense. But Burrell is extremely consistent while unspectacular. And given a chance to hit with runner(s) on base, I think he will produce.
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Postby elltrain22 » Wed Mar 21, 2007 11:34 am

Drunken Rhino Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2007 2:27 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

He may be an idiot, but not for saying that Howard is going too early. I completely agree w/ him about that.

He can be annoying, grating and just way wrong sometimes, but who of us out there isn't? I've never had a problem w/ any of his past blogs on MLB.com or his current stuff on ESPN.com. In fact, I find most of it entertaining. If you follow his advice word for word, yeah, you're probably going to get screwed. But if you take it, add what you know to the equation, then his info isn't so bad.

Geesh, give the guy a break.


I think the main reason I am so hard on him is b/c I want his job so bad, that it makes me jealous. I would love to get paid good money for doing, what most of us consider to be, fun as heck.
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Wed Mar 21, 2007 11:43 am

Drunken Rhino wrote:He may be an idiot, but not for saying that Howard is going too early. I completely agree w/ him about that.

He can be annoying, grating and just way wrong sometimes, but who of us out there isn't? I've never had a problem w/ any of his past blogs on MLB.com or his current stuff on ESPN.com. In fact, I find most of it entertaining. If you follow his advice word for word, yeah, you're probably going to get screwed. But if you take it, add what you know to the equation, then his info isn't so bad.

Geesh, give the guy a break.


No the guy really is an idiot. We've gone back and forth with him over at the basketball cafe. He doesn't care about making accurate predictions, only gambling on huge risks. The drafting Ryan Howard to early thing is the most unlike TMR thing I've ever heard...top 9 though? Sure I take Howard in the top 9. What, did he not get better as the season went on with the same players batting behind him as will this year?

Analysis of TMR.


Comments.

He also claimed to have some magical drafting strategy in basketball that assured you a win. After analysis at the cafe it was apparent he was on crack. Relatively speaking, how are you going to get Ortiz, Howard, Berkman, Reyes, Pierre and Figgins on one team?
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Postby BigLebowski » Wed Mar 21, 2007 11:47 am

Don't all the experts gamble on the sexy breakout players with huge upside? That's what they do, just look at any of the 50 mocks they have done and the young player with big upside always goes too early. They are all guilty not just Mr. Roto. I used to enjoy reading his stuff cause of the odd humor he has. He makes in entertaining. I would love to have his job, I'm sure we all do.
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Postby acsguitar » Wed Mar 21, 2007 11:57 am

wrveres wrote:You guys are surprised that somebody who goes by the handle, The Talented Mr Roto, is smug and cocky .. :-o


Oh thats who that guy is??!? haha I hate him :-t
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Wed Mar 21, 2007 12:02 pm

Phillies order last year:

2nd/3rd Abreu/Utley

4th: Howard 273 AB, Burrell 248 AB
5th: Howard 234 AB, Burrell 148 AB
6th: Rowand 256 AB, mix

Howard got it done last year with out even Burrell behind him. The thing is, even at a realistic RBI number, reduced HRs and lower AVG Howard is still easily a top 9 pick.
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Postby Ender » Wed Mar 21, 2007 12:09 pm

Speed is just at too much of a premium in Roto to be picking someone who I personally don't think will hit .300 and won't steal any bases. If I'm going to take a guy like that I'd rather have Ortiz. Put up almost the same stats last year, has more of a track record, has better protection behind him and plays in a division with a lot of bad pitchers in it.

In addition I only play in 'expert league' format so we have 5 OF's which makes 1B even less attractive in the 1st round than in the yahoo default setting. I'd rather have guys like Vlad, Beltran, Crawford than Howard/Ortiz in roto.
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Wed Mar 21, 2007 12:51 pm

Ender wrote:Speed is just at too much of a premium in Roto to be picking someone who I personally don't think will hit .300 and won't steal any bases. If I'm going to take a guy like that I'd rather have Ortiz. Put up almost the same stats last year, has more of a track record, has better protection behind him and plays in a division with a lot of bad pitchers in it.

In addition I only play in 'expert league' format so we have 5 OF's which makes 1B even less attractive in the 1st round than in the yahoo default setting. I'd rather have guys like Vlad, Beltran, Crawford than Howard/Ortiz in roto.


Hmm. I have changed my opinion on Howard a bit, so yea I take Ortiz ahead of him now. But speaking of track record, Beltran and Vald have big time red flags in their past. I think you have the same risk, which can be mitigated by crafty drafting, in taking Dave Roberts or Taveras for that speed. Based on your format and including positional scarcity Ender, ZiPS puts Howard at #5 based on solely the numbers. Prospectus' draft tool puts him closer to 8th-9th. So yes I can see taking Howard 8th+ as a viable strategy for someone looking for a good late round 1B, but not something you go around yelling at people while trying to make a name for yourself as I assume "TMR" is.

And is speed really at such a premium this season?

Taveras, Lugo, Hanley, Upton, Hart, Castillo combined with the roughly 15-20 you get with many top picks - Wright, Sizemore, Vlade, Arod, Utley, Jeter seem to have populated the system with potentially more SBs from ownable players than preseason last year. From 2005 to 2006 the value of a SB decreased significantly based you league settings Ender. In '05 21 SBs was about 0.70 std deviations from the mean, while in '06 that shrunk to 0.56 stnd dev. (Essentially it took 23 SBs in '06 to equal to value of 21 SBs in '05). 46 SB in '05 had stdevp value of 2.59, in '06 those 46 SB would have a stndevp value of 2.26. It would have taken 51 SB in '06 to equal the value of 46 SB in '05. Of course this could mean the balance of SB value could swing back to the 2005 value range, but as I said, with all the speed projecting to be getting so many PAs in '07 I think it's still swinging the other way.
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