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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Mar 22, 2007 8:35 pm

Ender wrote:
It devalues pitching in general /shrug. Every pitcher drops a good 2-3 rounds in value when you add holds except middle relievers who still are less valuable than a starter, it makes anything but the elite closers go way down in value.


No, it reallocates value across pitchers. Some pitchers drop a round or two. Other pitchers, set up guys, rocket up 5-7 rounds.


Ender wrote: Its just not a strong stat.


I don't know what what means. What's a strong stat? Define it objectively in a way that isn't simply based on your opinion of the stat.


Ender wrote:I've played in an OPS and Holds 6x6 and it was the worst league I've ever played in, simply made the big hitters dominate, pitching was pretty much useless and random. if I wanted to play in a league like that I'd go play fantasy football.


So on the basis on one experience from one person, you have drawn this conclusion.

This is my sixth year playing with Holds and OPS. I think they're very useful and no more or less random than several other stats we use, plus they add to the strategy of the game in a significant way.

As I said, chacun a son gout. You have your opinions on holds, but that opinion really has little solid basis in logic or facts. You just don't like them. That's fine. Different strokes. But let's not dress it up in some pseudo-scientific critique.
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Postby Ender » Thu Mar 22, 2007 8:54 pm

No, it reallocates value across pitchers. Some pitchers drop a round or two. Other pitchers, set up guys, rocket up 5-7 rounds


No it doesn't~. Yes setup guys rocket up a few rounds but in general all pitching slides down compared to all hittings. The #15 hitter is more valuable than Santana in that setup etc. Sure you can play whatever settings you want but the guy asked for opinions and I'm giving mine.

OPS as a 6th stat slides 100% of the value of your players towards power hitters, they simply dominate the league. If thats what you are looking for go for it. Regardless of what you want to say adding Holds to pitching makes pitching less useful in general.

good MR's give you 4 stats, good Starters give you 4 stats, good closers give you 4 stats, mediocre MR's give you like 2 stats, mediocre starters give 2-3 stats, mediocre closers give 2 stats or so.

Some hitters give you 6 stats, a lot of hitters give you 5 stats, even mediocre hitters give you 4. Pitching in general drops in value like a rock with that setup, especially in H2H, its not quite as bad in roto.

As I said, chacun a son gout. You have your opinions on holds, but that opinion really has little solid basis in logic or facts. You just don't like them. That's fine. Different strokes. But let's not dress it up in some pseudo-scientific critique.


Whatever, you are the one who hasn't given one shred of statistical evidence for why they are good or how they affect the league. If you honestly don't think Holds devalues pitching you really need to take a second look at your ratings.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Mar 22, 2007 11:37 pm

Ender wrote:
No, it reallocates value across pitchers. Some pitchers drop a round or two. Other pitchers, set up guys, rocket up 5-7 rounds


No it doesn't~. Yes setup guys rocket up a few rounds but in general all pitching slides down compared to all hittings. The #15 hitter is more valuable than Santana in that setup etc. Sure you can play whatever settings you want but the guy asked for opinions and I'm giving mine.


Just went over to BaseballMonster to test this and you're mostly wrong. In 5x5 based on 2006 stats, they rate Santana #1. Add holds and OPS and he drops to 3.

In the top 50 in 5x5 there were 16 pitchers. 6x6 there were 14 pitchers. So, there's some marginal slippage of pitching, but it's not nearly as extreme as you say. Mussina drops out of the top 50, but Zumaya and Shields zoom into it. Guys like Saito who had both holds and saves arein the top 50 both times, but higher once holds are added. The median ranking in 5x5 for these top 50 pitchers is 27.5. In 6x6 it's 33.5. So, as I said, the major effect is to redistribute value within pitching, with only marginal slippage in pitching value compared to hitting,


Gotowarmissagnes wrote:As I said, chacun a son gout. You have your opinions on holds, but that opinion really has little solid basis in logic or facts. You just don't like them. That's fine. Different strokes. But let's not dress it up in some pseudo-scientific critique.


Ender wrote:Whatever, you are the one who hasn't given one shred of statistical evidence for why they are good or how they affect the league. If you honestly don't think Holds devalues pitching you really need to take a second look at your ratings.


The freason why I haven't given any statistical evidence for why they are good is because I don't think there is one shred of statistical evidence for why they are good. You are the one making the argument based on stats, not me. I've explained at length my opinion on why I think they add something of value to a league.

At least from my quick look at the data, I don't think it supports your claim that pitching's value drops dramatically. It may slip marginally, though I'd like to see how it works in later rounds, and the main effect appears to be redistributing value within pitching.

I don't disagree with your comments about OPS, but that's a change I welcome. It values what is truly important in hitting. It makes stupid one-cat SB guys much less valuable, forcing you to adopt a more sophisticated strategy for generating SBs. Even if it does place a higher value on hitting, I welcome that change, too. Everything I know about baseball demonstrates to me that hitting is more important for winning than pitching, so that development supports something I like, making fantasy baseball closer to real baseball in terms of what is valued.

Furthermore, given your emphasis on de-emphasizing randomness, you should welcome making hitting more valuable as hitting is much less random than pitching.
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Postby CBMGreatOne » Thu Mar 22, 2007 11:42 pm

OPS and K/BB.

OPS is pretty much the most accurate way to measure a hitter's pragmatic value in comparison to other hitters. Sure it makes power hitters more valuable and base stealers less valuable, but the power hitters ARE more valuable, just not in fantasy because steals are so rare. OPS shifts the balance of power back to them, but that's no problem as far as I'm concerned.

I hate holds with a passion. It totally reorganizes what you do with your roster. I don't want to have to choose between carrying a third bench hitter or a third setup man... maybe it would be better if there were more roster spots. Imagine having to carry at least 2 setup men to get holds, at least 3 closers to get saves and then enough starters to fill up your innings. So much for just having 4 closers, 4 starters to keep and 2 starters to stream. Essentially you're adding one more class of player while only adding one category that they're applicable too. All in all, a very lame category.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Mar 22, 2007 11:47 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:OPS and K/BB.

OPS is pretty much the most accurate way to measure a hitter's pragmatic value in comparison to other hitters. Sure it makes power hitters more valuable and base stealers less valuable, but the power hitters ARE more valuable, just not in fantasy because steals are so rare. OPS shifts the balance of power back to them, but that's no problem as far as I'm concerned.

I hate holds with a passion. It totally reorganizes what you do with your roster. I don't want to have to choose between carrying a third bench hitter or a third setup man... maybe it would be better if there were more roster spots. Imagine having to carry at least 2 setup men to get holds, at least 3 closers to get saves and then enough starters to fill up your innings. So much for just having 4 closers, 4 starters to keep and 2 starters to stream. Essentially you're adding one more class of player while only adding one category that they're applicable too. All in all, a very lame category.


But, they aren't applicable to one category. Good set up guys rack up more K's per IP than the best starters. Good set up guys have better WHIP and ERA than starters and do it in more IP than closers, raising their contribution. Good set-up guys often get saves and wins, contributing to those cats. In fact, set up guys, contribute to all 6 categories and taking into account IP, their contribution to WHIP and ERA is greater than closers.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:12 am

Follow-up, again based on Baseball Monster and 2006 final stats.

Top 100 players in 5x5: 42 pitchers and 58 hitters

Top 100 players in 6x6: 42 pitchers and 58 hitters

Doesn't look like pitching takes a big hit in value to me.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:18 am

Top 150

5x5, 67 pitchers, 83 hitters
6x6 77 pitchers, 73 hitters

Top 200

5x5: 99 pitchers, 101 hitters
6x6: 114 pitchers, 86 hitters
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Postby garf112 » Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:24 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Top 150

5x5, 67 pitchers, 83 hitters
6x6 77 pitchers, 73 hitters

Top 200

5x5: 99 pitchers, 101 hitters
6x6: 114 pitchers, 86 hitters


I understand what you are trying to get at GTWMA, but you are not necessarily being truthful in this analysis. Bottom line is you need to draft more pitchers in a league like this because there are fewer stat categories that an individual pitcher can help you in.
You would have to find out how many of those pitchers are starters, closers and middle relievers in each scenario to do a real analysis of how much they drop. I agree that starters don't drop as much as ender is saying they do, but I just want to make sure we are working with data that isn't deceptive for the sake of this argument.
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:28 am

I just roughly compared VORP to 5 x 5 and 6 x6 (hold/ops). Basically the latter league settings shit value to what things are more like in real life. I assume anyone who knows how VORP works can access the numbers themselves. I'd rather scout a real hitter like Matt Murton than waste time wondering if a Joey Gathwright is going to get lucky enough for long enough with his BABIP to play.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:44 am

garf112 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Top 150

5x5, 67 pitchers, 83 hitters
6x6 77 pitchers, 73 hitters

Top 200

5x5: 99 pitchers, 101 hitters
6x6: 114 pitchers, 86 hitters


I understand what you are trying to get at GTWMA, but you are not necessarily being truthful in this analysis. Bottom line is you need to draft more pitchers in a league like this because there are fewer stat categories that an individual pitcher can help you in.
You would have to find out how many of those pitchers are starters, closers and middle relievers in each scenario to do a real analysis of how much they drop. I agree that starters don't drop as much as ender is saying they do, but I just want to make sure we are working with data that isn't deceptive for the sake of this argument.


I don't disagree that you might need more pitchers, but I don't think that speaks clearly to their value. Basically, the one aspect of this where I think Ender is right is that the 6x6 devalues the top SP and closers by comparison to the strong sluggers. The number of SP/closers in the Top 25 drops from 6 to 1. I think this is definitely where Ender gets his impression that pitching is less valuable. Almost all the top 25 players are hitters.

But that's only the top 8 percent of the distribution of players in your typical 12 team, 25 man league. In much of the rest of the distribution, the drop in value of SP is more than offset by the rise in value of closers and MRs and the decline in value of lower OPS guys. So, once you get to round 8, the number of pitchers with value is equal to what you find in 5x5. And, after that, pitcher value in 6x6 is equivalent to or greater than 5x5. In short, there are more pitchers in the top half of the distribution of value (the top 150 players ranked by value) in 6x6 than in 5x5.

So, I don't think the numbers support the idea that pitching value takes a dramatic hit, except in that top tier of the distribution.
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