I'm keeping my eye on all those STL pitchers like Reyes, Wainright, and Looper.
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really can't say I like him better than either Lilly or Contreras. Reyes' delivery just looks awkward to me and he's not one clean medical bill. Contreras did win what? 10 games to start last year and Lilly is moving from the AL East to the NL Central. Never see too much in Chuck James.
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last year in the 1st half Reyes had these stats..
3.86 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6.4 H/9, 6.3 K/9
2nd half, these stats..
5.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.6 H/9, 8.2 K/9
the one fantasy baseball magazine i have says this about Reyes..
"the rumour was that Reyes was tipping his pitches in the second half of the year. if he was, it got corrected by the World Series start, where Reyes dominated Detroit in game 1."
i think one can expect similar stats to the 1st half, but with better W/L numbers.
Yoda wrote:I think he is simlar to Haren, perhaps a tad better, and as long as he is healthy, he will eventually become a top starter.
I don't really like the comp. I view Haren as more of an inning eater-type, capable of putting up 200+ IP with a solid 3.80-4.20 ERA and a good K-rate. Reyes I see more as a 170 IP guy with better ERA and K/9.
But I agree that he's very underrated
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Yoda wrote:I think he is simlar to Haren, perhaps a tad better, and as long as he is healthy, he will eventually become a top starter.
I don't really like the comp. I view Haren as more of an inning eater-type, capable of putting up 200+ IP with a solid 3.80-4.20 ERA and a good K-rate. Reyes I see more as a 170 IP guy with better ERA and K/9.
But I agree that he's very underrated
Perhaps... BP doesn't have Haren as his comp but FI does:
SpecialFNK wrote:last year in the 1st half Reyes had these stats.. 3.86 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6.4 H/9, 6.3 K/9 2nd half, these stats.. 5.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.6 H/9, 8.2 K/9 the one fantasy baseball magazine i have says this about Reyes.. "the rumour was that Reyes was tipping his pitches in the second half of the year. if he was, it got corrected by the World Series start, where Reyes dominated Detroit in game 1."
i think one can expect similar stats to the 1st half, but with better W/L numbers.
i think there was something else going on. it was well documented in cardinal land that larussa and dave duncan changed reyes throwing style. they asked him to rely less on his four seam fastball that he liked to throw high in the zone and to throw more two seam sinking fastballs. reyes had some trouble with this. he didnt trust his two seamer so he started throwing the changeup a lot. i dont think he was necessarily tipping his pitches, but as the season wore on teams knew he was reluctant to throw his fastball and were sitting on the change. by the world series start he had gone back to throwing/locating his fastball better.
this year reyes and the staff seem to have found a happy medium between the two/four seam approach. reyes has incorporated it into his arsenal but doesnt rely on it as heavily as tony/dunc apparently wanted him to last year. he uses it in certain situations but it isnt a feature pitch.
Yoda wrote:I think he is simlar to Haren, perhaps a tad better, and as long as he is healthy, he will eventually become a top starter.
I don't really like the comp. I view Haren as more of an inning eater-type, capable of putting up 200+ IP with a solid 3.80-4.20 ERA and a good K-rate. Reyes I see more as a 170 IP guy with better ERA and K/9.
But I agree that he's very underrated
Good observations.
I've learned that inconsistency from a young SP as Reyes has shown is a quality indicator of potential future success. One start he's pitching a one run gem with good BB/K, the next he's giving up 2 bombs and 5 ER in 3 IP. Over time those bad games should lessen in exchange for average/good performances.
i think there was something else going on. it was well documented in cardinal land that larussa and dave duncan changed reyes throwing style. they asked him to rely less on his four seam fastball that he liked to throw high in the zone and to throw more two seam sinking fastballs. reyes had some trouble with this. he didnt trust his two seamer so he started throwing the changeup a lot. i dont think he was necessarily tipping his pitches, but as the season wore on teams knew he was reluctant to throw his fastball and were sitting on the change. by the world series start he had gone back to throwing/locating his fastball better.
this year reyes and the staff seem to have found a happy medium between the two/four seam approach. reyes has incorporated it into his arsenal but doesnt rely on it as heavily as tony/dunc apparently wanted him to last year. he uses it in certain situations but it isnt a feature pitch.
Great post!!! Thats insight, way beyond the numbers. Very nice dogg...
I picked up Reyes recently to fill out my SP's, and am very happy to have him as my 4th starter. He may have that 175-190 IP, 11-14 W, 150-175 K, 3.50 Era type year..Very solid
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by chadlincoln » Wed Mar 21, 2007 11:07 am 
