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Yahoo draft using PECOTA, what do you think? WHIR

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Yahoo draft using PECOTA, what do you think? WHIR

Postby BoilerATC » Mon Mar 19, 2007 9:37 pm

12 team 5x5 draft using PECOTA. Second time I used PECOTA this year and things worked a little better. Let me know where I'm weak!

1. (4) Johan Santana SP
2. (21) Grady Sizemore OF
3. (28) Joe Mauer C
4. (45) Brian Roberts 2B
5. (52) Huston Street RP
6. (69) Bill Hall 3B,SS
7. (76) Todd Helton 1B
8. (93) Delmon Young OF
9. (100) Rich Harden SP
10. (117) Nick Swisher 1B,OF
11. (124) Jeff Francoeur OF
12. (141) José Valverde RP
13. (148) Takashi Saito RP
14. (165) Chad Tracy 3B
15. (172) Armando Benítez RP
16. (189) Dave Bush SP
17. (196) Kelvim Escobar SP
18. (213) John Patterson SP
19. (220) Orlando Hudson 2B
20. (237) Chris B. Young OF
21. (244) Jonathan Broxton RP
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Postby Hacktastic » Mon Mar 19, 2007 11:28 pm

Here is a guy who likes his PECOTA and knows how to use it. I haven't seen many drafts where Santana dropped to 4th, so nice pick there. Also, Bill Hall is an awesome pick for SS in the 6th round. However, you still need some extra power, and your guys at 1B won't help you much for that. Delmon Young was a bit of a stretch considering he's still unproven, but he's going to be great and hopefully this is his year. Pitchers look decent considering how late you were going for most of them, plus Santana can make most staffs look 500% better. Your closers look like they'll work well for now too.

If you're going to do a draft using PECOTA one more time, I'd suggest to go with the great hitters and shut down pitchers early, and don't stress out if you don't get a top 3 catcher or 2B. Mauer in the 3rd round is solid, but he does tend to be a reach pick in drafts because his kind is so rare. I say let others do the reaching for those players, and you'll benefit by having better overall players to choose from instead. Also, projected stats don't take into account the demand for a player. They can project a player to do much better than others think he's worth, and in those circumstances an ADP list is your best friend, because you can then judge how long you can wait till you should draft, say, Jeremy Bonderman, BP's pick for AL Cy Young this year (provided that Johan Santana gets hit by a bus).
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Postby gambit31888 » Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:07 am

this team lacks power, i see only one guy(bill hall) who topped 30 homers last yr. but maybe i don't understand pecota very well. harden scares me tho, i feel very veteran biased
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Postby Geek » Tue Mar 20, 2007 9:58 am

You need to grab at least one big power bat in the first 3-5 rounds to anchor your offense.

Todd Helton is on my permanent "Do not Draft" list--no way should be going that high.
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Postby BoilerATC » Tue Mar 20, 2007 4:15 pm

Yeah, it looks like the PFM at BP places a big emphasis on 5-tool players. It does like Dunn for this year though. I had the adjustment level set to 2 and a 69/31 split for hitters and pitchers. I didn't always take the guy at the top of the list, or I would have ended up with 12 pitchers. I do agree that I need a little more power though.
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