Betting 30 on Overbay

[orange12]

What are the chances Overbay can break out and top 30 HR? I ask because all the pieces seem to be in place for it yet no projection I've seen has him coming remotely close to it. The guy turns the almighty 30 years of age in '07, a time when career years are likely to be had, and he's had three full seasons under his belt, each one with improving power numbers.

Yet, Yahoo his him O-ranked at 209, behind Hillenbrand, which makes him no more than a late round mop up pick. Rototimes and mlb.com projects him to do no more than repeat last year's numbers. Am I wrong to think he can top 30HR and 100+RBI while continue to hit .300? Yeah, I know those are 4th round or higher numbers but really; why not?

[RC]

Gibbons has said he'll hit second in front of Wells, so he'll get more pitches to hit than he did last year in the 5th or 6th hole. He'll also score way more runs.

He's a huge value pick that late and if he ever had a chance at 30, Rogers Center's alleys are as good a place as any.

I think 30 is his ceiling, but it's attainable.

[Ender]

I doubt he hits 30 but he's still underrated this season in general.

[BitterDodgerFan]

the safer choice than nomar or a. gonzalez who are both ranked close to each other.

[Pedantic]

The chances? Poor. Thirty is definitely not the golden age for career years. Not even close. I'd say at best he repeats last year's numbers, and I'd say a decline is more likely.

[Ender]

The chances? Poor. Thirty is definitely not the golden age for career years. Not even close. I'd say at best he repeats last year's numbers, and I'd say a decline is more likely.

Power peaks between 29-31 for most hitters so it wouldn't be that big of a stretch. I still dont' think he'll do it though.

[emb0lus]

The chances? Poor. Thirty is definitely not the golden age for career years. Not even close. I'd say at best he repeats last year's numbers, and I'd say a decline is more likely.

yeah, i do not see 30 hr out of him, he has never come close even in the minors. he is a good hitter, decent against lefties and will prob be batting 2nd so runs may hit 100 but doubt rbi will be more than 85, HR range of about 20. Not a bad pickup late in drafts. I don't really see any reason he should decline.

[Laean]

agon is a lock to hit between 20-30. overbay is a lock to hit between 15-25.

[one ton]

I like Overbay, but I'd say 30 is really a stretch. If he hits 25 you'd have to be very happy...

[silverZ]

I don't see Overbay going over 25. He's a line drive hitter, not a slugger.