beefcurtain wrote:Harden and Hill are interesting cases. They are both undervalued and overvalued, depending on who is drafting.
People in this Web site might think highly of Hill but for most people he's just the fourth starter on a mediocre Cubs starting rotation who disappointed until the last two months of last year.
Harden has great stuff but he's always injured so it's impossible to say whether he is going too early or late. If you think he's going too late, then you are confident he will stay healthy. If you see him as another Prior/Wood, then he's going to early. Why take a guy that will miss most of the year? It depends entirely on whether he can stay healthy and no one can predict that.
The bottom line for me is that who can really predict when anyone will stay healthy?
You can have a relatively healthy pitcher like Roy Oswalt go down and miss the entire year. Granted, certain pitchers have a track record of DL stints, but if they pitch like they are healthy, then I will buy into the fact that they are, and draft accordingly.