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High at-bats players: how much extra value

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High at-bats players: how much extra value

Postby kaiser » Fri Mar 16, 2007 3:45 pm

I was just reading a column from Ron Shandler on draft day tips, and one of his tips was to try to grab guys with high at-bats, instantly giving you an edge in runs and rbi over your competition. Any comment on this? What would be considered a "high" number of at-bats for a player in a season? 550? 600?

I'd be interested in hearing some converstaion on Schandler's thoughts.
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Postby davidmarver » Fri Mar 16, 2007 3:56 pm

I think it's more important to look at plate appearances, if you're gonna make some sort of playing time determination. In short, though, no I don't think that's too good of a strategy; if you draft someone who led the league in at-bats the season before, how will he improve upon his runs total? It's likely he'll be up less so, in theory, you're paying for his maximum run value by drafting him where you are.

Granted, I'm not trying to undervalue players who are out there everyday -- there's a lot to be said about healthy players in fantasy -- just that you shouldn't expect much improvement upon previous numbers.
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Postby dmendro » Fri Mar 16, 2007 4:17 pm

The main thing about high at bats is that if you have a guy who hits .300 for the year in 630 AB's, it's going to go farther for your team's BA then a guy who hits .300 in 500 AB's.
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Postby acsguitar » Fri Mar 16, 2007 4:30 pm

dmendro wrote:The main thing about high at bats is that if you have a guy who hits .300 for the year in 630 AB's, it's going to go farther for your team's BA then a guy who hits .300 in 500 AB's.


No its not its the same average
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 16, 2007 4:42 pm

acsguitar wrote:
dmendro wrote:The main thing about high at bats is that if you have a guy who hits .300 for the year in 630 AB's, it's going to go farther for your team's BA then a guy who hits .300 in 500 AB's.


No its not its the same average


That depends on what happens in the other 130 ABs.

In general, I try to have guys that bat in slots 1-6 on teams that will have better offenses. Being near the top of the order means more ABs, so more opportunities for runs and RBIs. Being on a good offensive team means more opportunities to drive in runs and more times you'll be driven in to score a run. It's not a huge thing, but it pays off a little.
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Postby Pokey » Fri Mar 16, 2007 4:45 pm

acsguitar wrote:
dmendro wrote:The main thing about high at bats is that if you have a guy who hits .300 for the year in 630 AB's, it's going to go farther for your team's BA then a guy who hits .300 in 500 AB's.


No its not its the same average


Well, assuming that .300 is an above average BA for your league, than yes, the guy who hits .300 in 630 AB's will be more valuable in that category.

I was just reading a column from Ron Shandler on draft day tips, and one of his tips was to try to grab guys with high at-bats, instantly giving you an edge in runs and rbi over your competition.


Actually, a better way to get an advantage in runs and RBI is to draft guys with high runs and RBI totals. Just sayin...
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Postby biju » Fri Mar 16, 2007 4:49 pm

acsguitar wrote:
dmendro wrote:The main thing about high at bats is that if you have a guy who hits .300 for the year in 630 AB's, it's going to go farther for your team's BA then a guy who hits .300 in 500 AB's.


No its not its the same average


That's incorrect.

Compare these setups on your roster:

Player 1: 500 ABs, .300 avg
Player 2: 500 ABs, .265 avg

500 ABs x .300 avg = 150 hits
500 ABs x .264 avg = 132 hits

total:
1,000 ABs @ 282 hits = .282 avg

then:

Player 1: 600 ABs, .300 avg
Player 2: 500 ABs, .260 avg

600 ABs x .300 avg = 180 hits
500 ABs x .260 avg = 130 hits

total:
1,100 ABs @ 310 hits = .282 avg

[edit: I messed up the total ABs for group 2 so I fixed it.]
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Postby rainman23 » Fri Mar 16, 2007 6:24 pm

Pokey wrote:
Actually, a better way to get an advantage in runs and RBI is to draft guys with high runs and RBI totals. Just sayin...


Seriously. What a freakin' ridiculous theory. The only reason to give extra credit for high AB's is if you're bringing a guy in specifically to help your average. In general, guys whose greatest strength is that they pile up the AB's are good candidates to avoid.
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Postby DSheppard » Fri Mar 16, 2007 6:34 pm

not worth considering for rbis/runs.. you just look at their rbis/runs obviously.

but for batting average? why not.

michael young and ichiro being near locks to hit .300+ over 690+ at bats is obviously going to have more impact then someone who gets 500 at bats hitting .300

i dont think this is anything you need to slave over evaluating every players number of at bats, but its worth giving a thought when choosing certain guys.
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Postby Grouperman941 » Fri Mar 16, 2007 6:37 pm

Also, guys projected to get a lot of ABs are hitting in the top of their orders, which generally means they are the better hitters, or at least they are setting up the better hitters, on their team.
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