ZiPS projections - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

ZiPS projections

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

ZiPS projections

Postby Yikes » Fri Dec 05, 2003 5:47 am

Anybody here heard of ZiPS projections?

I think they're available for 2004 players out there somewhere but don't know if there's any merit to them.

Hope you experts know something about them
;-D
Insert Signature Here...
Yikes
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 500
Joined: 31 Oct 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Beijing, China

Re: ZiPS projections

Postby wrveres » Fri Dec 05, 2003 6:04 am

Yikes wrote:Anybody here heard of ZiPS projections?

I think they're available for 2004 players out there somewhere but don't know if there's any merit to them.

Hope you experts know something about them
;-D


how can you possiblyhave projections ready. In about 18 days, there may be 200 + Free agents out there. Wouldn't their team and their projected batting order have a little to do wit it? I won't even get into the fact that some guys may not even have gigs ... way to early for projections ...
25                "Love the Padres"
Rafael

Dodgers FAIL|Mets FAIL|Canada FAIL
wrveres
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe Musketeer
Posts: 31755
(Past Year: 746)
Joined: 2 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Madison » Fri Dec 05, 2003 11:58 am

I have to agree. It's way too early for reasonable projections. I mean, take Tejada for example. He could be in Detroit, or still with Oakland. That would make a very big difference on what to expect out of him next year. There are quite a few people in the same boat.

Wait and get some reasonable projections. ;-)
Yes doctor, I am sick.
Sick of those who are spineless.
Sick of those who feel self-entitled.
Sick of those who are hypocrites.
Yes doctor, an army is forming.
Yes doctor, there will be a war.
Yes doctor, there will be blood.....
Madison
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
ExecutiveEditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerPick 3 ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 53856
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 29 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Taking Souls...

Postby DieHardCubbie » Sat Dec 06, 2003 4:56 am

Here is an article about ZiPS.....

Baseball Primer wrote:About ZiPS
by Dan Szymborski

ZiPS stands for sZymborskI Projection System, the acronym chosen because the pitching portion heavily utilizes the DIPS system of Voros McCracken and the i being small in honor of everyone's favorite television serial on the subject of highway patrols.

The batting portion is a heavily edited Brock5 system, with completely revamped aging factors based on historical 3-year aging trends, park factor support, and trends based on changes in component stats such as strikeouts.

A more expansive article on the subject will be available in the coming months.

Some things I would like to include in future versions:

- Support for defensive projections. For a true DIPS projection system for pitchers rather than a DIPS-neutral projection system, you need to be able to, at some level, predict defensive performance to get you closer to an expected $H for the team. You'll never predict luck, but a pitching projection improves when defense can properly implemented.

- Improved playing time engine. The problem with this is that to predict playing time, you need to inject a healthy dose of subjectivity into the projection. This is at odds with the basis of a projection for baseball players, the main strength of which isn't the genius of the results, but the objectivity and ability to put the past into proper context.

Also, you get into the territory at which predicting playing time can detract from the usefulness of the results. Say you have a minor-league player like Jose Leon of the Orioles. What is more useful? A projection that he'll go 4-13 with 2 RBI for the season, or a full season line tempered with knowledge of his chances of making the team? I've opted for the latter choice, but nothing's going to please all parties.

- Further research on the effects of position changes on offense. This might seem like a trivial matter but when the occasion pops up, it's one of the times that a projection is more useful. We can guess what Pudge Rodriguez will do most years, play well and be injured, but what if he moves to 3rd or another position? It'd be nice to be able to make an educated guess at the results rather than "Catchers frequently hit better at easier positions."

- More accurate projections for raw totals of W-L and RS-RA. It'd be great to be able to project a team's W-L record through RS-RA projections but until you can predict the distribution of playing time, it's hard to predict either. Won-loss projections are difficult, for instance, because instead of predicting the W-L record off of a league average offense in the team's home park, you'd need to be able to predict the team's offense. I can do that by making a subjective analysis of a team's likely run total but that strips away a good bit of the objectivity of a projection.

This is certainly not an exhaustive list but just a few things I think to be important.


I have the 2004 projections too...for what they are worth right now..... :-o
[b]Useless Trivia of the day[/b]

England's Worcester Canoe Club set the world record for paddling a hand-propelled bathtub. The 25 man team covered a distance of 55 miles, 425 yards in 24 hours on September 28 and 29, 1979.
DieHardCubbie
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 13084
Joined: 13 Feb 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: floating around on the 3rd rock

Postby DieHardCubbie » Sat Dec 06, 2003 5:00 am

Here is the Hitters projections.....


and Hereare the pitching projections......

but like has been said before....don't take too much stock in projections this early.....
[b]Useless Trivia of the day[/b]

England's Worcester Canoe Club set the world record for paddling a hand-propelled bathtub. The 25 man team covered a distance of 55 miles, 425 yards in 24 hours on September 28 and 29, 1979.
DieHardCubbie
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 13084
Joined: 13 Feb 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: floating around on the 3rd rock

Postby DK » Sat Dec 06, 2003 12:02 pm

Wow, check it out:

Esteban Loaiza CHA sp 32 3.66 14 11 0 32 31 0 0 199.0 187 89 81 46 151 20 0

Nearly exactly what I said.
Image
DK
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 9533
Joined: 22 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: on deck

Postby Madison » Sat Dec 06, 2003 3:29 pm

DK wrote:Wow, check it out:

Esteban Loaiza CHA sp 32 3.66 14 11 0 32 31 0 0 199.0 187 89 81 46 151 20 0

Nearly exactly what I said.


Still a little early for projections.

What was Loaiza's projection for last year? O:-)
Yes doctor, I am sick.
Sick of those who are spineless.
Sick of those who feel self-entitled.
Sick of those who are hypocrites.
Yes doctor, an army is forming.
Yes doctor, there will be a war.
Yes doctor, there will be blood.....
Madison
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
ExecutiveEditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerPick 3 ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 53856
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 29 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Taking Souls...

Postby DK » Sat Dec 06, 2003 4:57 pm

Madison wrote:
DK wrote:Wow, check it out:

Esteban Loaiza CHA sp 32 3.66 14 11 0 32 31 0 0 199.0 187 89 81 46 151 20 0

Nearly exactly what I said.


Still a little early for projections.

What was Loaiza's projection for last year? O:-)


No idea. O:-)
Image
DK
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 9533
Joined: 22 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: on deck


Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Thursday, Jul. 31
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Chi White Sox at Detroit
(1:08 pm)
Colorado at Chi Cubs
(2:20 pm)
St. Louis at San Diego
(3:40 pm)
Philadelphia at Washington
(7:05 pm)
Seattle at Cleveland
(7:05 pm)
LA Angels at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
Cincinnati at Miami
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Toronto at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Minnesota at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Pittsburgh at Arizona
(9:40 pm)
Atlanta at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact