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NCAA Tournament Betting Thread

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Postby Big Pimpin » Thu Mar 15, 2007 6:51 pm

Art Vandelay wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:I like the #15s and #16s... The top seeds never seem to cover.


I just read an article that mentioned this. Apparently, in the last 10 or 15 years (I forget what time frame they gave), dogs have covered something like 53% of the time in the first round. So if you bet all underdogs for the last 10 years you'd come out ahead. But if you discriminately bet them you could probably make that closer to 60% (at least).


The guy that they made Two for the Money about was on the radio here a couple days ago. Anyway, I think he said only 1 of the 8 1s and 2s last year covered. It's tough enough to beat a team by 25+ points anyway, but typically once they build a big lead (assuming they do) they end up resting their main guys so they have more energy for the next game. It makes a lot of sense.
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Postby BGbootha » Thu Mar 15, 2007 8:41 pm

Just out of curiousity where do you guys place your bets....assuming you all dont' live in vegas
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Postby Big Pimpin » Fri Mar 16, 2007 12:23 am

BGbootha wrote:Just out of curiousity where do you guys place your bets....assuming you all dont' live in vegas


I actually don't bet. I just know who I'd be on if I did. :-D
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Postby LukeW9027 » Fri Mar 16, 2007 12:26 am

BGbootha wrote:Just out of curiousity where do you guys place your bets....assuming you all dont' live in vegas


sportsbetting.com
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Postby Art Vandelay » Fri Mar 16, 2007 12:42 am

Backroom of a local tavern.
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Postby Phatferd » Fri Mar 16, 2007 3:56 am

I know a bookie.

4-0-1 I will take it!!
You have no frame of reference, Donny. You're like a child who walks into the middle of a movie...
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Postby Phatferd » Fri Mar 16, 2007 12:20 pm

Here is what I am on for day 2. I will probably add some games.

Winthrop +4 ;-D
vs
ND

Nevada -1.5 ;-D
vs.
Creighton

LBST +7 :-t :-t :-t Boy was I off on this game
vs
Tennessee
Last edited by Phatferd on Fri Mar 16, 2007 5:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Art Vandelay » Fri Mar 16, 2007 12:26 pm

I've got Oregon -8 over Miami Ohio, and Arizona -2.5 over Purdue. and I think I'll take the under on USC/ARK (136.5), but I haven't decided for sure yet.
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Postby acsguitar » Fri Mar 16, 2007 12:29 pm

I hope all this betting is done while in Las Vegas you sinners!
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Postby Phatferd » Fri Mar 16, 2007 12:48 pm

Art Vandelay wrote:I've got Oregon -8 over Miami Ohio, and Arizona -2.5 over Purdue. and I think I'll take the under on USC/ARK (136.5), but I haven't decided for sure yet.


I like Oregon as well. I am also thinking of taking Arizona and USC. Miami is lucky to be in the tournament, I think Oregon runs them off the floor with their athleticism.

Arizona is the king of underachieving this season, but they are 10x more talented than Purdue. I think Arizona wins this one easily then tanks it next round.

USC I think wins this game by a comfortable margin, not a blowout, but comfortably. They got blown out against Oregon in their last game, but they played 3 days in a row including a game that ended at 11pm the night before a 3pm for the championship. If you watched the game they just flat out ran out of gas and missed a dozen shots within 5 feet of the basket. Because of that poor showing, I think they are getting overlooked. Nick Young is a great player who will be in the NBA and a top 15 pick in the draft.
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