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Wainwright as an SP?

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Wainwright as an SP?

Postby Doughhead » Thu Mar 15, 2007 2:15 pm

The early returns are looking good, but projecting the success of closers turned starters is notoriously tricky. Does anyone have any strong opinions one way or another on how Wainwright--and also Papelbon--will do in their new roles?
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Postby chadlincoln » Thu Mar 15, 2007 2:29 pm

I see Wainright having a great season. I'm targetting him in all my drafts. I see 17 wins, 180 K's, 3.4 ERA, 1.18 WHIP.
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Postby Dmville » Thu Mar 15, 2007 2:47 pm

Remember, Wainwright hasn't ben a career closer. He has been brought up as a SP prior to last year but was blocked. I don't hink he'll have trouble going back.
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Postby DeadWinterDay » Thu Mar 15, 2007 2:51 pm

Anyone with a curve ball like he has is golden in my books.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Mar 15, 2007 3:08 pm

Dmville wrote:Remember, Wainwright hasn't ben a career closer. He has been brought up as a SP prior to last year but was blocked. I don't hink he'll have trouble going back.


This is true of Papelbon, too. I don't think the history of closers becoming starters is very good, but that's not the real situation with either of these two.
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Postby DeadWinterDay » Thu Mar 15, 2007 3:42 pm

This is more of a Smoltz type thing, but only with unproven players.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Thu Mar 15, 2007 3:58 pm

chadlincoln wrote:I see Wainright having a great season. I'm targetting him in all my drafts. I see 17 wins, 180 K's, 3.4 ERA, 1.18 WHIP.


i'd love to see those numbers but i dont think he will strikeout quite as many. i think his k/9 will fall between 6.5 and 7. trying to be more efficient to last longer in the game probably means fewer strikeouts. his k/9 was 7.3 in 180IP at AAA in 2005.

i am not too worried about his transition to starting since that is what he was groomed to be all along. its somewhat similar to dan haren in 2004. he didnt seem to have much trouble going back to starting.

PECOTA and ZIPS like wainwright although i think they underestimate his innings. you can find some projections here.
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Postby MaudDib » Thu Mar 15, 2007 6:14 pm

I don't think Wainwright will fair well as a starter. I am thinking a mid 4 ERA. He has always been looked at as a starter but he has never shown much since he was acquired in the Drew deal. Your best bet is that he will finish the season as a closer. I could see him starting until Mulder gets back from injury and then him either taking over the closer role or being a setup man until Isringhausen gets injured.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Thu Mar 15, 2007 11:55 pm

MaudDib wrote:He has always been looked at as a starter but he has never shown much since he was acquired in the Drew deal.


in 2004 he had a partial tear in his elbow ligament. i wouldnt put much stock in those numbers. i wish i could find splits for 2005. he tore up the beginning of the season and then hit a wall. he says he lost focus when he realized he wasnt going to get called up to start that year no matter how well he pitched. towards the end of the season he got his head back on right and started dominating again. if you just look at the overall numbers it doesnt look that great, but i would disagree the statement that he hasnt shown much. i think 2006 kind of validates what he has done throughout the majority of his minor league career. he has a great curve, a good fastball and the confidence of winning the world series. he has the tools to be a successful starter although the usual 'rookie' starter problems may be there.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Mar 15, 2007 11:57 pm

It's tough to predict successful relievers transitioning to starters. See: Heilman, Madson.

I would probably expect a 4ish ERA and 150 K given 200 IPs. It's so much easier to pitch 1-2 innings versus 5+.
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