Well he is actually 23 and will be 24 1/2 by the time he comes back. My opinion is that he is still young, and I would take him in rounds 22-end game in a dynasty league. I am looking forward to watching him next spring. The only worry is that he becomes a Prior/Harden/Gagne type pitcher who is constantly injured and therefore worthless in keeper leagues.
it all depends if you're a gambler or not, i think. I personally am a little more conservative than even most and wouldnt draft him unless its a DEEP Dynasty.
It all depends on the structure of your keeper league. If it's a straight 'keep five' then he's probably not worth drafting.
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
Art Vandelay wrote:In a 12 team dynasty league (or keeper league where you get to keep enough players that he may actually make the cut), I would definitely not take him before the 20th round, and probably not before the 22nd or 23rd.
I strongly disagree with this. Why wouldn't you take a chance of him coming back next year and him being an ace? I like him in late teen rounds, around 18/19. I drafted him in a dynasty league around 18 I think. It's not like you're drafting a lot of talent at that position anyways. He won't pitch for this year, but this is a low risk high reward type thing. If he ends up not doing well, then at least you didn't give up a huge pick for him. And if he does, then that's a great pick.
From what I've seen, TJ surgery's have been better than worst in the past. I have confidence in this kid coming back strong for next year.
While i agree with this for some formats, he just isn't worth it, if the format is something where you only keep 5 or so players, he isn't worth the risk.
Art was talking about a dynasty league, that's why I said that.
Definitely not worth it in a league that would have 5 keepers.
Art Vandelay wrote:In a 12 team dynasty league (or keeper league where you get to keep enough players that he may actually make the cut), I would definitely not take him before the 20th round, and probably not before the 22nd or 23rd.
I strongly disagree with this. Why wouldn't you take a chance of him coming back next year and him being an ace? I like him in late teen rounds, around 18/19. I drafted him in a dynasty league around 18 I think. It's not like you're drafting a lot of talent at that position anyways. He won't pitch for this year, but this is a low risk high reward type thing. If he ends up not doing well, then at least you didn't give up a huge pick for him. And if he does, then that's a great pick.
From what I've seen, TJ surgery's have been better than worst in the past. I have confidence in this kid coming back strong for next year.
I also wouldn't have taken him before the 20th round. We had 18 starting spots, so there's no way I'd take him before I even have my lineup filled. It could be a great reward but what does it tell you if he had elbow problems after only half a year. Yikes...TJ surgery could be the end of it but it could very well be just the beginning. There's so many pitchers who are great talents but can't stay healthy that it's likely he could win up as just another one of them.
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by West » Thu Mar 15, 2007 7:24 pm 
