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Too Pessimistic? (Halladay's workload in '03)

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Too Pessimistic? (Halladay's workload in '03)

Postby nsulham » Thu Dec 04, 2003 12:30 pm

I realize I'm going to be called crazy by some here for even worrying about this but to me it's valid.

I know Roy's a helluva pitcher and workhorse but all those IP's last season (266) have me a little concerned that he might wear down at some point next season and go through a dead-arm phase.

I remembered Mark Buehrle two years ago and how high everyone was on him entering this season and his #'s were lower than his 19-win '02 season.

    '02- 19-12, 239 IP, 236 hits, 95 ER, 61 bb, 134 K's, 3.58 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .260 BA
    '03- 14-14, 230 IP, 250 hits, 106 ER, 61 bb, 119 K's, 4.14 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .278 BA


Aside from the walks which were oddly the exact same, Buerhle's record and K's dropped and his hits, ER, ERA, WHIP and BA all rose.

My point is not to compare the two but to say that there is precedence for Halladay to have a subpar 2004 and since I have to decide who to keep between he and Schilling (Only missed time last season because of appendectomy and broken hand so who knows what his #'s might have looked like) it's not as easy a decision as it may seem.

Anyone else think Roy's #'s might come down this year and/or he might wear down?

(Oh I also happen to have Prior so you can imagine my trepidation over that issue....but that's another thread ;-) )
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Postby Broncmet724 » Thu Dec 04, 2003 12:35 pm

I would be willing to bet Halladay's numbers will drop, but Curt is getting up there in age, and Fenway isn't exactly the best park for a fly ball pitcher.
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Postby Erboes » Thu Dec 04, 2003 12:49 pm

I also believe Halladay's numbers will drop with or without the workload issue. He's had an incredible year and everything went right for him. Since he's not a big strikeout pitcher, for him to retain the value from last season everything would have to go right for him next season as well, which is doubtful. He's in the Mussina/Hudson/Zito class of pitcher, which is damn good, but not of the elite like he pitched last season.

If the workload theory is true (maybe the crack staff from Cafe can jump on this one), then maybe he'll drop below the Hudson type of pitcher. Either way, I don't think he's as good as he showed last season.
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Postby timkell » Thu Dec 04, 2003 12:53 pm

I wouldn't worry about innings with Halladay. It's pitch count that matters. When he pitched that 10 inning game, he pitched less than 100 pitches!

He can pitch so many innings because he's crazy efficient.

He's definitely a top pick for starter for me.

Is there a site that will tell us pitch counts for every start?
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Postby Madison » Thu Dec 04, 2003 1:00 pm

timkell wrote:Is there a site that will tell us pitch counts for every start?


Espn used to show the average pitches per start for a pitcher and total pitches for the year. I haven't checked in awhile though.
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Postby Area51's » Thu Dec 04, 2003 1:13 pm

I think you're right to be a little concerned, but I would try to find the amount of pitches thrown before I bury him under all of those innings.

He's still a stud, had over 6K's per walk, AND had that lousy(winless if I remember) first month. So really, everything DIDN'T go right for him, and he had the season he had w/ the hitters park, playing bosox and yanks a lot, AND the disastrous April.

If you held a gun to my head, and said pick him or Shilling, it would be Halladay in a one year league, and DEFINITELY in a keeper.

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Postby nsulham » Thu Dec 04, 2003 1:33 pm

From MLB.com

Player TEAM AVG PA NP P/IP HLD GF K/BB BB/9 K/9 H9
1. B Zito
OAK .219 957 3747 16.17 0 0 1.60 3.42 5.67 7.23
2. J Vazquez
MON .229 938 3740 16.21 0 0 3.89 2.22 9.40 7.73
3. W Williams
STL .256 944 3645 16.52 0 1 2.68 2.24 6.24 8.97
4. R Halladay
TOR .247 1071 3628 13.60 0 0 6.18 1.08 6.90 8.56
5. L Hernandez
MON .253 967 3584 15.36 0 0 2.97 2.20 6.87 8.68
6. R Ortiz
ATL .223 912 3569 16.81 0 0 1.37 4.32 6.32 7.50
7. K Wood
CHC .203 887 3545 16.80 0 0 2.61 4.27 11.35 6.48
8. B Colon
CWS .248 984 3526 14.57 0 0 2.47 2.49 6.43 8.29
9. E Loaiza
CWS .233 922 3510 15.51 0 0 3.57 2.23 8.23 7.79
10. M Buehrle
CWS .278 978 3507 15.23 0 0 1.89 2.38 4.65 9.77
11. J Pineiro
SEA .241 890 3497 16.52 0 0 1.91 3.23 6.42 8.16
12. T Hudson
OAK .223 967 3496 14.57 0 0 2.31 2.29 6.08 7.39
13. K Millwood
PHI .250 930 3489 15.72 0 0 2.28 2.76 6.85 8.51
14. R Clemens
NYY .247 878 3457 16.33 0 0 3.22 2.47 8.08 8.46
15. J Moyer
SEA .246 897 3448 16.04 0 0 1.87 2.76 5.40 8.33
16. C Zambrano
CHC .239 907 3415 15.96 0 0 1.58 3.95 7.07 7.91
17. M Prior
CHC .231 863 3403 16.10 0 0 4.54 2.13 10.43 7.79
18. A Pettitte
NYY .272 896 3388 16.26 0 0 3.40 2.16 7.78 9.81
19. B Sheets
MIL .268 931 3367 15.26 0 0 3.49 1.75 6.40 9.46
20. F Garcia
SEA .255 862 3366 16.72 0 0 1.97 3.17 6.44 8.76
21. J Thomson
TEX .276 910 3338 15.38 0 0 2.67 2.03 5.64 9.71
22. S Trachsel
NYM .264 857 3324 16.24 0 0 1.50 2.86 4.88 8.97
23. J Lackey
ANA .278 885 3293 16.14 0 0 2.16 2.91 6.66 9.84
24. B Tomko
STL .305 903 3281 16.19 0 0 1.93 2.53 5.06 11.19
25. R Wolf
PHI .233 850 3272 16.36 0 0 2.16 3.51 7.97 7.92
26. H Nomo
LA .223 897 3270 14.98 0 0 1.70 4.04 7.30 7.21
27. D May
KC .246 868 3259 15.52 0 1 2.13 2.27 4.93 8.44
28. A Leiter
NYM .260 798 3244 17.96 0 0 1.32 4.68 6.92 8.77
29. M Mussina
NYY .238 855 3243 15.11 0 0 4.43 1.68 8.18 8.05
30. J Johnson
BAL .283 858 3240 17.08 0 0 1.34 3.80 5.60 10.25
31. J Washburn
ANA .256 876 3238 15.62 0 0 2.03 2.34 5.12 8.90
32. W Franklin
MIL .268 870 3231 16.60 0 1 1.21 4.35 5.36 9.29
33. J Peavy
SD .238 827 3227 16.58 0 0 1.84 3.79 7.21 8.00
34. K Wells
PIT .233 835 3198 16.21 0 0 1.77 3.47 6.70 7.80
35. T Wakefield
BOS .246 872 3182 15.73 0 2 2.38 3.16 7.52 8.58
36. R Franklin
SEA .251 877 3180 15.00 0 0 1.55 2.59 4.20 8.45
37. M Redman
FLA .239 802 3175 16.65 0 0 2.36 2.88 7.13 8.12
38. M Kinney
MIL .272 847 3172 16.64 0 1 1.81 3.78 7.17 9.49
39. V Padilla
PHI .251 876 3168 15.18 0 0 2.02 2.67 5.74 8.45
40. M Clement
CHC .227 851 3148 15.61 0 0 2.11 3.53 7.63 7.54
40. C Sabathia
CLE .255 832 3148 15.93 0 0 2.04 3.01 6.42 8.65
42. D Lowe
BOS .272 886 3139 15.44 0 0 1.45 3.19 4.87 9.56
43. V Zambrano
TB .237 836 3134 16.64 1 2 1.22 5.07 6.31 7.88
44. M Maroth
DET .299 847 3131 16.19 0 0 1.67 2.33 4.05 10.75
44. B Radke
MIN .288 888 3131 14.75 0 0 4.00 1.19 5.09 10.26
46. W Miller
HOU .242 797 3127 16.69 0 0 2.06 3.70 7.73 8.07
47. B Lawrence
SD .258 884 3115 14.79 0 0 1.78 2.44 4.96 8.80
48. K Rogers
MIN .292 851 3114 15.97 0 0 2.11 2.31 5.35 10.48
49. K Brown
LA .236 856 3103 14.71 0 0 3.19 2.39 7.89 7.85
50. J Schmidt
SF .200 819 3097 14.91 0 0 4.43 1.99 9.01 6.59


As you can see, Halladay came in 4th last season with 3,628 pitches thrown with a 13.60 pitch per inning avg.

Oddly enough for all the heat Baker gets about overthrowing Prior, he's only 17th on the list :-?
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Postby Area51's » Thu Dec 04, 2003 1:50 pm

nsulham wrote:As you can see, Halladay came in 4th last season with 3,628 pitches thrown with a 13.60 pitch per inning avg.

Oddly enough for all the heat Baker gets about overthrowing Prior, he's only 17th on the list :-?



I guess coming in 4th would be bad, but not as bad since he easily led the majors in innings pitched (266, colon second w/ 242) but yet was only a distant fourth in pitches thrown. So he is economical.
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Postby Erboes » Thu Dec 04, 2003 1:51 pm

I did a little research on this and found he was one of the most heavily worked pitchers in '02 as well. Maybe he can handle it, but pitcher burnout is a real possibility. I'm not saying I'd trade him because of it, but there is a risk involved in keeping him. I would put him down as a real "sell high" candidate.
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Postby timkell » Thu Dec 04, 2003 2:42 pm

Here's his pitch counts for the last two months:
27-Sep 122
22-Sep 70
17-Sep 102
11-Sep 93
6-Sep 99
1-Sep 109
27-Aug 104
22-Aug 119
17-Aug 72
12-Aug 97
6-Aug 108
1-Aug 97

Average: 99.3 per start

He only had two over 110. One of which was his very last start.

I have no concerns about Halladay being overused. I could see if you saw him fade in September, but he only got better.

This guy is the man.
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