Ender wrote:I never said anything about his future, I don't know much about him. Fact is he displayed the skills of a .240 hitter last year. Where he goes from there I don't know. Adam Dunn was a career .300 hitter in the minors too, not every hitter who hits .300 in the minors figures it out in the majors.
True, and also true that this effect is more pronounced in lefties. Dunn is not a good comparison in that his flyball tendencies are very different from Granderson. Furthermore, Dunn's high OBP despite low BA has meant that there is little platoon advantage. With Granderson, there will likely be some differences.
If he figures out lefties, then his BA will rise and he will finish closer to the 270-280 range. If he doesn't, it is likely he will become a platoon player, since he does not have a strong enough BB rate to merit starting as Dunn does.
Or, maybe he both improves pitch recognition and ability to hit lefties and increases both his BB and BA...then he becomes very valuable.
Granderson is a nice 4th OFer, IMO.
I think he will hit well enough to be on most fantasy rosters. He sprinkles in enough steals to go with mediocre power and average numbers and decent run potential. All his numbers could improve, that is the key with Curtis. he can get better and make him a good draft day value.
Conversely, if they regress you didn't spend much for him. Good value.
Two further quick points...one more relevant for real-word evaluation is that Granderson is not helped by his park, which reduces output. For example, on the road last year Granderson has 12 HRs. At home, he managed just 6.
Second, more relevant for fantasy purposes, is whether Granderson trends more towards a GB or flyball hitter. Last year, he was almost even, where in 2005 he had been more a GB hitter. If he stays a GB hitter, he'll remain a high teens to low 20 HR hitter, but he'll hit in the .275 to .285 range. If, like Dunn, he becomes more of a FB hitter, that average will probably settle in the .250 range, but you could be looking at 30 HRs. In fact, if you couple his FB% from 2006 with his HR/FB of 2005, you get exactly 30 HRs.
The Tigers are trying to balance those two. They'd like to see him get that average in the .270 range, coupled with increased power.
He's started off the year strong, unlike many of the Tiger hitters. He has a great head on his shoulders, and is a hard worker. It will be unsurprising (to me) if his output increases over last year. He could definitely become a viable, if unspectacular, fantasy player this season IMO. At the same time, I don't think he'll be the kind of guy you kick yourself over not picking up if another manager grabs him. He's the kind of player whose real value is higher than his fantasy value.
Ender wrote:re, I don't know much about him. Fact is he displayed the skills of a .240 hitter last year.
You don't know much about him, but he displayed the skills of a .240 hitter. That makes no sense at all. His avg. last year was .260 and he worked all spring to cut down on Ks, he has been very good so far. I see .280 20 HR 15 SBs, not bad.
Nothing is idiotproof to a sufficiently motivated idiot