Matt Kemp - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Matt Kemp

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Mar 14, 2007 4:50 pm

SignGuy wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
And how many major league pitchers have a decent curve these days? Not many.


That is just silly. i know you dont believe that


Actually, it's not silly at all. Very few major league pitchers throw a quality curve ball these days. When I grew up the curve was the primary breaking pitch and almost all starting pitchers threw it and had a pretty decent one.

With the rise of the slider, splitter, cut fastballs, and the variety of breaking pitches, very few major league pitches throw curveballs at all, much less a decent one. Curve balls represent less than about 10% of all pitches these days.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Mar 14, 2007 4:51 pm

SignGuy wrote:Yes there is. When he started getting a steady diet of breaking pitches, he didnt do as well. this is all from visual scouting ie watching plenty of Dodger games. I agree that its getting blown way out of proportion and some fine tuning that i believe he can make will make him better, but as of last year, Matt Kemp had problems with breaking pitches. I do like him


Sorry, but I don't consider visual scouting by one individual to be good evidence.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby stumpak » Wed Mar 14, 2007 4:55 pm

Not to hijack the thread, but how can anyone defend paying $9M per over 5 years to the following:

* A lead-off hitter when you already have one (Furcal).

* A lead-off hitter with a very pedestrian OBP - sub .330 in 2005 and 2006 combined.

* A guy who has a .728 career OPS and an unbelieveable sub-.700 OPS over the last two years. Name a veteran MLB starter with a worse career OPS line. That's right, there are only 2. Luis Castillo, who has actually been markedly higher than Pierre the last 2 seasons and can actually draw a walk, and Christian Guzman, who is a complete abomination and would not be starting anywhere but Washington. Pierre's OPS the last 2 years? Less than .700! So this is like paying $9M a season to let your pitcher hit twice every time the line-up goes around.

* A CF who throws like a girl.

* A lead-off hitter who cannot even achieve an MLB average SB success rate.

If your sole metric of evaluating someone is a .300 BA, Pierre is great. If you take any other factor into account, he is really substandard. He frankly should not be starting on any team, much less getting paid $9M per. I am no fan of Matthews, but this would have been a better CF investment if there was money to throw away.

The worst part is that he is durable and will probably not get hurt and clear the way for Kent or even some scrub like Repko.
stumpak
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2729
Joined: 9 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Washington, DC

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Mar 14, 2007 5:00 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Actually, it's not silly at all. Very few major league pitchers throw a quality curve ball these days. When I grew up the curve was the primary breaking pitch and almost all starting pitchers threw it and had a pretty decent one.

With the rise of the slider, splitter, cut fastballs, and the variety of breaking pitches, very few major league pitches throw curveballs at all, much less a decent one. Curve balls represent less than about 10% of all pitches these days.


Just so you know I'm no tjust pulling your chain, this is from a recent Bradenton Herald story on pitching:

"The overhand curve, the pitch perfected by Blyleven, is one of the toughest pitches -- as tough to hit as it is to throw.

"Very difficult to throw, very difficult to control," said Dick Bosman, the Devil Rays' minor league pitching coordinator.

"On an average 12-man staff, you might have two guys who throw curveballs."


Most pitchers use the slider as their breaking ball.

"The slider is much easier to learn," said former Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Steve Blass. "
[/b]
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby SignGuy » Wed Mar 14, 2007 5:13 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
SignGuy wrote:Yes there is. When he started getting a steady diet of breaking pitches, he didnt do as well. this is all from visual scouting ie watching plenty of Dodger games. I agree that its getting blown way out of proportion and some fine tuning that i believe he can make will make him better, but as of last year, Matt Kemp had problems with breaking pitches. I do like him


Sorry, but I don't consider visual scouting by one individual to be good evidence.


yet i have noted shandler, other people have noted rotoworld, and im sure i can dig up some more who said the same thing. you are just being ignorant. why is it so impossible for you to believe that Kemp had trouble with breaking balls last year? it doesnt mean he sucks dude.
SignGuy
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 609
Joined: 14 Feb 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Mar 14, 2007 5:45 pm

SignGuy wrote:yet i have noted shandler, other people have noted rotoworld, and im sure i can dig up some more who said the same thing. you are just being ignorant. why is it so impossible for you to believe that Kemp had trouble with breaking balls last year? it doesnt mean he sucks dude.


Well, I was the one who noted that rotoworld said it. And, frankly, anyone that takes the comments in rotoworld seriously ought to have their head examined. That's not evidence in any way.

It's not impossible for me the believe it. All I need is evidence. Not Shandler's opinion. Not some anonymous rotoworld staffer's opinion. Evidence. What did Kemp hit on curve balls last year? How did that compare to the average major leaguer? How did it compare to the average major leaguer in their first 150 ABs?

And, finally, why should we care how he hits against the curve ball? If, as I am arguing, fewer than 20% of major league pitchers throw one and it represents less than 10% of pitches, it hardly seems to be likely to be a major problem.

I balance that minor weakness, if it even exists, against the evidence of Kemp's success in A, A+, AA, and AAA, and say why steer clear?
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby RynMan » Wed Mar 14, 2007 7:37 pm

stumpak wrote:Not to hijack the thread, but how can anyone defend paying $9M per over 5 years to the following:

* A lead-off hitter when you already have one (Furcal).

* A lead-off hitter with a very pedestrian OBP - sub .330 in 2005 and 2006 combined.

* A guy who has a .728 career OPS and an unbelieveable sub-.700 OPS over the last two years. Name a veteran MLB starter with a worse career OPS line. That's right, there are only 2. Luis Castillo, who has actually been markedly higher than Pierre the last 2 seasons and can actually draw a walk, and Christian Guzman, who is a complete abomination and would not be starting anywhere but Washington. Pierre's OPS the last 2 years? Less than .700! So this is like paying $9M a season to let your pitcher hit twice every time the line-up goes around.

* A CF who throws like a girl.

* A lead-off hitter who cannot even achieve an MLB average SB success rate.

If your sole metric of evaluating someone is a .300 BA, Pierre is great. If you take any other factor into account, he is really substandard. He frankly should not be starting on any team, much less getting paid $9M per. I am no fan of Matthews, but this would have been a better CF investment if there was money to throw away.

The worst part is that he is durable and will probably not get hurt and clear the way for Kent or even some scrub like Repko.


Agreed. On top of that, plan on hitting him second in the lineup. !+)
Image
RynMan
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerAward-Winning Graphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 8891
Joined: 4 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Oztailia

Postby dukesimms » Thu Mar 15, 2007 5:24 pm

biggamer3 wrote:What the hell is PECOTA guys?


It's where I get my dog's food.
Nothing is idiotproof to a sufficiently motivated idiot
dukesimms
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1129
Joined: 21 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby cordscords » Sat Mar 17, 2007 12:20 am

I'm glad I saw this topic. I just got the book and my eyes popped out when I saw his stat line.

Some nice posts in this thread ;-D
cordscords
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4343
(Past Year: 20)
Joined: 23 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Previous

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ensanimal and 13 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Jul. 23
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Cleveland at Minnesota
(1:10 pm)
Kansas City at Chi White Sox
(2:10 pm)
Cincinnati at Milwaukee
(2:10 pm)
Washington at Colorado
(3:10 pm)
Detroit at Arizona
(3:40 pm)
NY Mets at Seattle
(3:40 pm)
LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
(7:05 pm)
San Francisco at Philadelphia
(7:05 pm)
Texas at NY Yankees
(7:05 pm)
Boston at Toronto
(7:07 pm)
Miami at Atlanta
(7:10 pm)
Tampa Bay at St. Louis
(7:15 pm)
San Diego at Chi Cubs
(8:05 pm)
Baltimore at LA Angels
(10:05 pm)
Houston at Oakland
(10:05 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact