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Matt Kemp

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Re: Matt Kemp

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Mar 14, 2007 11:07 am

[quote="deerayfan072
Last season when he came up he was destroying the ball and then all of a sudden was not. That's becuase they were throwing him curveballs and off speed pitches. Last year he struck out 1 in 3 AB's and his avg prgressively got worse when he was up in the bigs.[/quote]

HE HAD 33 FREAKING ABs AFTER THE ASB.

HE STARTED 6 GAMES AFTER THE ASB, WITH ALL OTHER ABs AS A PINCH HITTER

HE BATTED .418 IN HIS FIRST THREE WEEKS.
NAME ME A BATTER IN THE LAST 50 YEARS WHO DID NOT GET PROGESSIVELY WORSE FROM HITTING AT THAT RATE?

AFTER THE DODGERS SENTS HIM TO AAA, HE GOT SO SCHOOLED BY CURVE BALLS IN JULY AND AUGUST THAT HE "ONLY" HIT .368 WITH A .988 OPS.

Let's look more closely at this K issue.

As a 19 year old in A ball, Kemp had 100 Ks and 24 BB in 423 ABs.

As a 20 year old in A+ ball Kemp had 92 Ks and 25 BB in 418 ABs.
In other words, he stepped up a level, reduced his K rate and improved his BB rate.

As a 21 year old in AA ball, Kemp had 38 Ks and 20 BB in 199 ABs.
In other words, he stepped up a level, reduced his K rate and improved his BB rate.

In that same year, as a 21 year old in AAA ball, Kemp had 26 Ks and 17 BBs in 182 ABs. Again, by comparison to the prior year, he jumped TWO levels, AND reduced his K rate AND improved his BB rate.

In fact, across all levels last year, playing 1-3 levels above what he had played the prior year, Kemp posted a significant improvement in both K and BB rates.

And he did all that, while hitting .320 and slugging over .500.

As a 21 year old.


In no way, shape or form can anyone objectively look at the long-run career path of Kemp so far and see things getting progressively worse. Instead, he continues to step up to new levels of play and maintain or improve his performance. His K and BB rates show regular improvement despite the fact that each year he faces tougher and tougher competition. Kemp's a real sleeper.
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Postby thedude » Wed Mar 14, 2007 11:22 am

There is nothing in the numbers to prove that he cannot hit a curveball. Where did you hear that he had this problem?
"I do not think baseball of today is any better than it was 30 years ago... I still think Radbourne is the greatest of the pitchers." John Sullivan 1914-Old athletes never change.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Mar 14, 2007 11:49 am

deerayfan072 wrote:
thedude wrote:There is nothing in the numbers to prove that he cannot hit a curveball. Where did you hear that he had this problem?


I can't remember, it was last year. There was an article about it i read. Like i said i do doubt his long term vakue he dominated the minors and is still young. I was just saying don't expect the domination this year as he has something to work on


I imagine what you are recalling are the numerous comments in rotoworld, who knocked Kemp's ability to hit breaking pitches FOUR times in his first month. No real baseball source for that comment. In fact, the Dodgers have emphaiszed the issue is Kemp's ability to play a decent CF, which is why they got Pierre, and have him playing more corner OF.

Ask me which I would believe:Kemp's demonstrated ability to make adjustments and improve as he played professional ball or some anonymous rotoworld commenter.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Mar 14, 2007 11:51 am

deerayfan072 wrote:In no way did i say his long term value is crap. I was merely point out he has some work to do


Well, no, you said he can't hit a curve ball and has a hole a mile wide in his swing.

I don't think there's ANY good evidence that this is true.
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Postby thedude » Wed Mar 14, 2007 12:00 pm

This maybe the article you keep reffering to.

[quote="USA Today"]Jul. 9, 2006 - 7:09 p.m. ET
Matt Kemp went 0-for-4 on Sunday and is without a homer in his last 76 at-bats.
This after he homered seven times in his first 45 at-bats as a major leaguer. Teams are figuring out that Kemp struggles mightily against breaking balls, so it's possible that the 21-year-old will head back to the minors when either Jason Repko or Ricky Ledee comes off the DL.[/quote]
"I do not think baseball of today is any better than it was 30 years ago... I still think Radbourne is the greatest of the pitchers." John Sullivan 1914-Old athletes never change.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Mar 14, 2007 12:29 pm

thedude wrote:This maybe the article you keep reffering to.

[quote="USA Today"]Jul. 9, 2006 - 7:09 p.m. ET
Matt Kemp went 0-for-4 on Sunday and is without a homer in his last 76 at-bats.
This after he homered seven times in his first 45 at-bats as a major leaguer. Teams are figuring out that Kemp struggles mightily against breaking balls, so it's possible that the 21-year-old will head back to the minors when either Jason Repko or Ricky Ledee comes off the DL.
[/quote]

And, again, that's not an article. That's a rotoworld blurb that usatoday took into their player notes.

A ton of this information is simply crap. Kemp's first game up he flailed at a few curve balls, and that immediately became the thing to say about him. Rather than rely on this info, it would be nice to look at something like Baseball Info Solutions data on performance versus different pitch types.

But, even without that, rather than rely on some goofball's random speculations or data from 150 ABs, look at Kemp's performance against real competition. I guarantee you that in the almost 1,700 plate appearances he has had against professional pitchers, he has seen his share of breaking balls. And, in those plate appearances, he's managed to hit over .300 with a slugging percentage over .500. Like almost every 22 year old, he has things to work on, but he also has clearly demonstrated a great ability to learn and improve. Like Markakis last year, he'd struggle for a month or two, but by the second half he'd be producing strong numbers.

The Dodgers will have him waste some time in AAA at the start of the season, but if they give him a shot, you should grab him.
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