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Re: Matt Kemp

Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:34 am

thedude wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:
RynMan wrote:
Steve-o wrote:
RynMan wrote:PECOTA also has him pegged for an excellent season - 20/20 with a .295 AVG.


The PECOTA cards are almost like Zips in that they do not attempt to project playing time.


Yeah, you are right on that one. However, it still speaks to how the system views his talent. If given a full season, he would produce a very nice year.


Young players with lots of talent that produce big numbers in small sample sizes can put PECOTA into fits so I don't know how much I'd read into that. Take a look at Lincecum's PECOTA forecast for example. I love Lincecum's future as a pitcher but those PECOTA numbers are a tad on the ridiculous side. :-b


Well Kemp actually has a few full seasons of minor league ball which is what PECOTA is basing its predictions off of. True PECOTA can't tell if Kemp has a hole in his swing, but it can tell that it didn't hurt him in the minors.


There's definitely more to go on with Kemp so his projection shouldn't be ridiculously out of line. But I wouldn't be surprised with it being off by 15-20% due to his sheer physical skills allowing him to play well at lower levels despite what other people have mentioned about him not being able to handle a curveball.
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Re: Matt Kemp

Postby thedude » Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:37 am

The Loveable Losers wrote:
thedude wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:
RynMan wrote:
Steve-o wrote:
RynMan wrote:PECOTA also has him pegged for an excellent season - 20/20 with a .295 AVG.


The PECOTA cards are almost like Zips in that they do not attempt to project playing time.


Yeah, you are right on that one. However, it still speaks to how the system views his talent. If given a full season, he would produce a very nice year.


Young players with lots of talent that produce big numbers in small sample sizes can put PECOTA into fits so I don't know how much I'd read into that. Take a look at Lincecum's PECOTA forecast for example. I love Lincecum's future as a pitcher but those PECOTA numbers are a tad on the ridiculous side. :-b


Well Kemp actually has a few full seasons of minor league ball which is what PECOTA is basing its predictions off of. True PECOTA can't tell if Kemp has a hole in his swing, but it can tell that it didn't hurt him in the minors.


There's definitely more to go on with Kemp so his projection shouldn't be ridiculously out of line. But I wouldn't be surprised with it being off by 15-20% due to his sheer physical skills allowing him to play well at lower levels despite what other people have mentioned about him not being able to handle a curveball.


That maybe true, but it is usually PECOTA hates the pure physical tool guys (like Hanely Ramirez and Justin Upton)...
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Postby biggamer3 » Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:38 am

What the hell is PECOTA guys?
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Postby RynMan » Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:43 am

biggamer3 wrote:What the hell is PECOTA guys?


It's Baseball Prospectus' forecasting system. Basically predicts what they are going to do next season. Unlike most other systems, it isn't based on someone's opinion, but purely in historical trends, similarities, and player progression.

LL: I would have thought the amount of time he spent in the minors would be enough to formulate some significant figures. Nonetheless, his minor league numbers were still pretty impressive. If you factor in that he is only 23 this season, he gets left out of discussion a lot I feel.
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Re: Matt Kemp

Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:57 am

thedude wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:
thedude wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:
RynMan wrote:
Steve-o wrote:
RynMan wrote:PECOTA also has him pegged for an excellent season - 20/20 with a .295 AVG.


The PECOTA cards are almost like Zips in that they do not attempt to project playing time.


Yeah, you are right on that one. However, it still speaks to how the system views his talent. If given a full season, he would produce a very nice year.


Young players with lots of talent that produce big numbers in small sample sizes can put PECOTA into fits so I don't know how much I'd read into that. Take a look at Lincecum's PECOTA forecast for example. I love Lincecum's future as a pitcher but those PECOTA numbers are a tad on the ridiculous side. :-b


Well Kemp actually has a few full seasons of minor league ball which is what PECOTA is basing its predictions off of. True PECOTA can't tell if Kemp has a hole in his swing, but it can tell that it didn't hurt him in the minors.


There's definitely more to go on with Kemp so his projection shouldn't be ridiculously out of line. But I wouldn't be surprised with it being off by 15-20% due to his sheer physical skills allowing him to play well at lower levels despite what other people have mentioned about him not being able to handle a curveball.


That maybe true, but it is usually PECOTA hates the pure physical tool guys (like Hanely Ramirez and Justin Upton)...


I think Hanley took a beating for the low slugging percentage coupled with the low sb% but that's just a guess since I don't know the inner workings of PECOTA. Justin Upton seems to have a similar thing going but given his age I'm surprised PECOTA isn't more bullish there.

It's not that Kemp's a tools guy that I think PECOTA likes...it's that his tools have translated in being able to batter minor league pitching to the tune of a 0.516 slg%. But just as a soft tosser with good control can get by in the minors but find himself overmatched in the majors so too can a guy with great physical tools do well in the minors statistically but not have that translate to the majors due to 'Pedro Cerano' disorder. ;) The number of top-notch offspeed offerings you'll be facing in the minors is just much lower so he's gotten by very well.

His strikeouts in 20% of his at bats in the minors nearly 3-1 k/bb ratio definitely make you wonder though if he may be one of those guys that don't translate to the majors. I'm actually bullish on him myself but I think PECOTA may be overshooting a bit here.
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Re: Matt Kemp

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Mar 14, 2007 7:32 am

The Loveable Losers wrote:His strikeouts in 20% of his at bats in the minors nearly 3-1 k/bb ratio definitely make you wonder though if he may be one of those guys that don't translate to the majors. I'm actually bullish on him myself but I think PECOTA may be overshooting a bit here.


I think people tend to make WAY too much fuss over strikeout rates. There was this guy the Phillies had and everybody said would fall flat because he struck out in more than 30% of his minor league ABs. What happened? Well, he also struck out in 30% of his major league ABs....and hit 58 homers.

Context is everything. Despite those K rates, Kemp has murdered the ball in the minors. And he's done it while playing at high levels for his age...a 21 year old in AAA ball.

Even if he can't hit a curve ball (nonsense imo), he must hit every other pitch pretty damn good. And how many major league pitchers have a decent curve these days? Not many.
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Re: Matt Kemp

Postby deerayfan072 » Wed Mar 14, 2007 7:41 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:His strikeouts in 20% of his at bats in the minors nearly 3-1 k/bb ratio definitely make you wonder though if he may be one of those guys that don't translate to the majors. I'm actually bullish on him myself but I think PECOTA may be overshooting a bit here.


I think people tend to make WAY too much fuss over strikeout rates. There was this guy the Phillies had and everybody said would fall flat because he struck out in more than 30% of his minor league ABs. What happened? Well, he also struck out in 30% of his major league ABs....and hit 58 homers.

Context is everything. Despite those K rates, Kemp has murdered the ball in the minors. And he's done it while playing at high levels for his age...a 21 year old in AAA ball.

Even if he can't hit a curve ball (nonsense imo), he must hit every other pitch pretty damn good. And how many major league pitchers have a decent curve these days? Not many.


Last season when he came up he was destroying the ball and then all of a sudden was not. That's becuase they were throwing him curveballs and off speed pitches. Last year he struck out 1 in 3 AB's and his avg prgressively got worse when he was up in the bigs.
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Re: Matt Kemp

Postby Yoda » Wed Mar 14, 2007 10:44 am

deerayfan072 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:His strikeouts in 20% of his at bats in the minors nearly 3-1 k/bb ratio definitely make you wonder though if he may be one of those guys that don't translate to the majors. I'm actually bullish on him myself but I think PECOTA may be overshooting a bit here.


I think people tend to make WAY too much fuss over strikeout rates. There was this guy the Phillies had and everybody said would fall flat because he struck out in more than 30% of his minor league ABs. What happened? Well, he also struck out in 30% of his major league ABs....and hit 58 homers.

Context is everything. Despite those K rates, Kemp has murdered the ball in the minors. And he's done it while playing at high levels for his age...a 21 year old in AAA ball.

Even if he can't hit a curve ball (nonsense imo), he must hit every other pitch pretty damn good. And how many major league pitchers have a decent curve these days? Not many.


Last season when he came up he was destroying the ball and then all of a sudden was not. That's becuase they were throwing him curveballs and off speed pitches. Last year he struck out 1 in 3 AB's and his avg prgressively got worse when he was up in the bigs.


Too small of a sample... He just needs more time.
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Re: Matt Kemp

Postby deerayfan072 » Wed Mar 14, 2007 10:47 am

Yoda wrote:
deerayfan072 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:His strikeouts in 20% of his at bats in the minors nearly 3-1 k/bb ratio definitely make you wonder though if he may be one of those guys that don't translate to the majors. I'm actually bullish on him myself but I think PECOTA may be overshooting a bit here.


I think people tend to make WAY too much fuss over strikeout rates. There was this guy the Phillies had and everybody said would fall flat because he struck out in more than 30% of his minor league ABs. What happened? Well, he also struck out in 30% of his major league ABs....and hit 58 homers.

Context is everything. Despite those K rates, Kemp has murdered the ball in the minors. And he's done it while playing at high levels for his age...a 21 year old in AAA ball.

Even if he can't hit a curve ball (nonsense imo), he must hit every other pitch pretty damn good. And how many major league pitchers have a decent curve these days? Not many.


Last season when he came up he was destroying the ball and then all of a sudden was not. That's becuase they were throwing him curveballs and off speed pitches. Last year he struck out 1 in 3 AB's and his avg prgressively got worse when he was up in the bigs.


Too small of a sample... He just needs more time.


I understand he needs more time, but look at what he id last year, e started off great, but when the pitchers learned he had a hole in his swing they exploited it, just like Johnny Gomes
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Re: Matt Kemp

Postby Yoda » Wed Mar 14, 2007 11:00 am

deerayfan072 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
deerayfan072 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:His strikeouts in 20% of his at bats in the minors nearly 3-1 k/bb ratio definitely make you wonder though if he may be one of those guys that don't translate to the majors. I'm actually bullish on him myself but I think PECOTA may be overshooting a bit here.


I think people tend to make WAY too much fuss over strikeout rates. There was this guy the Phillies had and everybody said would fall flat because he struck out in more than 30% of his minor league ABs. What happened? Well, he also struck out in 30% of his major league ABs....and hit 58 homers.

Context is everything. Despite those K rates, Kemp has murdered the ball in the minors. And he's done it while playing at high levels for his age...a 21 year old in AAA ball.

Even if he can't hit a curve ball (nonsense imo), he must hit every other pitch pretty damn good. And how many major league pitchers have a decent curve these days? Not many.


Last season when he came up he was destroying the ball and then all of a sudden was not. That's becuase they were throwing him curveballs and off speed pitches. Last year he struck out 1 in 3 AB's and his avg prgressively got worse when he was up in the bigs.


Too small of a sample... He just needs more time.


I understand he needs more time, but look at what he id last year, e started off great, but when the pitchers learned he had a hole in his swing they exploited it, just like Johnny Gomes


Give the kid a break. He was 21 last year (baseball age). He only K'd 64 times in 92 G at AA/AAA last season.

154 MLB ABs not a big enough sample to determine he can't hit a breaking ball. That is ridiculous.
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